Calgary Civic Election: Mayoralty Poll #4 - The Heat is On

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Markusoff had an interesting post about how Mandel won Edmonton in 2004 and the polls leading up to election day:

http://communities.canada.com/calgar...-a-mandel.aspx

One of the comments on that story said we can't finish the ring road because the city can't afford it. We have great voters in this city.

[worth]

I would rather have Oscar Fetch than Barb Higgins as mayor. At least he would be entertaining. Higgins will bore me to death with her rambling.

[fredr123]

I know this is a mayoralty thread, but does anyone have any thoughts (or a link to a different thread) about Ward 3? I'm digging that both Laracque and Stevenson want me to re-elect them.

[Zee]

Ward 3 is hilarious... but seriously she was one of the worst aldermen ever. Just so lost...

[Table 5]

While those poll number's don't look too promising for Nenshi supporters, one of the good things about this mayoral election is that it will at least clear some of the crap from council regardless of who wins. No more Connelly, no more McIver, Lord, Hawkseworth. At any rate, there will be change at city hall, and change is what the people seem to be clamoring for.

If these numbers hold true, most of us will be happy not to have a city run by Dr. No....but would that be worse than having it run by Mrs I-Dont-Know?

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Table 5

If these numbers hold true, most of us will be happy not to have a city run by Dr. No....but would that be worse than having it run by Mrs I-Dont-Know?

Honestly, I would rather have Dr. No rather then Miss. I-have-no-platform. The silence from her is so deafening, how could she possibly be mayor for a +Million city that continue to grow and evolve? Will she have the backbone to not be easily influenced and challenged when the pressure gets applied towards her? We already have Stelmach running this province, I hope the same mistake is not made for Calgary.

[CaptainCrunch]

If the polls are to be believed, and we are in the last week of campaigning, its going to be really tough for Nenshi to make up 11 points on the front runner. I know we talk about the undecided voters, but I tend to think that if we polled the undecided a majority of them don't give a crap and aren't going to vote anyways.

On another note, I'm really sad to see that it looks like a wack of the true council dunderheads will be getting their seats back, with two in particular being the lazy and fradulant Mellaby-fox and the arrogant Druh Ferrall, its a shame, I was almost hoping for a clean sweep.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If the polls are to be believed, and we are in the last week of campaigning, its going to be really tough for Nenshi to make up 11 points on the front runner. I know we talk about the undecided voters, but I tend to think that if we polled the undecided a majority of them don't give a crap and aren't going to vote anyways.

On another note, I'm really sad to see that it looks like a wack of the true council dunderheads will be getting their seats back, with two in particular being the lazy and fradulant Mellaby-fox and the arrogant Druh Ferrall, its a shame, I was almost hoping for a clean sweep.

It's not going to be that tough, because Nenshi is really only behind by around 6 points. A large percentage of the population 18-35 hasn't been polled accurately based on land line only polling.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Zee

Ward 3 is hilarious... but seriously she was one of the worst aldermen ever. Just so lost...

She was brutal.

I noticed she was taking a bit of heat on the news this past weekend since all her signs say "Re-Elect Helene Laroque". It isn't against any campaign laws, but I'm sure it will confuse some folks.

[fredr123]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

She was brutal.

I noticed she was taking a bit of heat on the news this past weekend since all her signs say "Re-Elect Helene Laroque". It isn't against any campaign laws, but I'm sure it will confuse some folks.

Helene's website has changed to remove all that "re-elect Helene" stuff likely in response to that heat. I'm guessing she's just re-using signs from her 2007 campaign.

While I won't base my design solely on a Q&A with the Calgary Sun, there is a clear distinction between Jim Stevenson and Gary Tremblay in the way they answered the questions. One might have a bit more appeal to youth than the other. I'll leave that exercise to the reader:

Gary Tremblay: http://www.calgarysun.com/news/calga.../15073456.html

Jim Stevenson: http://www.calgarysun.com/news/calga.../15160866.html

Helene Laracque and PErvais Iqbal MIA.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

She was brutal.

I noticed she was taking a bit of heat on the news this past weekend since all her signs say "Re-Elect Helene Laroque". It isn't against any campaign laws, but I'm sure it will confuse some folks.

Funny you mention this.. I was confused by Stevenson and Laroque both having Re-Elect on their signs..

[Bunk]

Good post by Markusoff on his Hall Monitor Blog about where the race stands, and the general unpredictability of civic elections:

http://communities.canada.com/calgar...r/default.aspx

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

It's not going to be that tough, because Nenshi is really only behind by around 6 points. A large percentage of the population 18-35 hasn't been polled accurately based on land line only polling.

I would rather see that poll broken down in age say an 18 to 25 and a 25 to 35.

My gut tells me that a lot of the 25-35 would either vote for McIver or Higgens. While the 18 to 25 group if they can be convinced to put down their bongs and turn off Dexter would vote for Nenshi.

When you have an perceived inaccuracy in polling in a municiple election, I almost write off half of that group as non voters.

Should be interesting, I would prefer to see a fresh face running the city. McIver really lost my vote when he sided against the city auditor, I'm still not sure if I'm sold on Nemshi, because I keep having flash backs to the Obama campaign, and I wonder about his level of execution combined with his lack of experience.

I can't vote for Higgin's because I like substance in my candidates.

[Vox]

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/loca...into-lead-poll

Results were generated Saturday, a little bit more recently than the Global poll. Don't shoot the messenger.

[Table 5]

Hey Captain, leave Dex out of this.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

She was brutal.

I noticed she was taking a bit of heat on the news this past weekend since all her signs say "Re-Elect Helene Laroque". It isn't against any campaign laws, but I'm sure it will confuse some folks.

I lived in Ward 3 when she got ousted and it was funny how in a sleepy Calgary election she managed to come in third despite being an incumbent. But then again she managed to win Ward 3 in 2004 when Nenshi ran 4th in the ward.

[kipperfan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would rather see that poll broken down in age say an 18 to 25 and a 25 to 35.

My gut tells me that a lot of the 25-35 would either vote for McIver or Higgens. While the 18 to 25 group if they can be convinced to put down their bongs and turn off Dexter would vote for Nenshi.

When you have an perceived inaccuracy in polling in a municiple election, I almost write off half of that group as non voters.

Should be interesting, I would prefer to see a fresh face running the city. McIver really lost my vote when he sided against the city auditor, I'm still not sure if I'm sold on Nemshi, because I keep having flash backs to the Obama campaign, and I wonder about his level of execution combined with his lack of experience.

I can't vote for Higgin's because I like substance in my candidates.

I am in that age group as are all of my friends and quite a few of my co-workers and I know of one person that will vote for McIvor and everyone else either doesn't care, is undecided or are supporting Nenshi. Why would any reasonably intelligentyoung person vote for Higgins or McIvor? That doesn't make much sense to me, if anything their bases conist of the baby boomers, not young people.

[CaptainCrunch]

Interesting, McIver really has run a lackluster campaign and its going to really cost him. I thought he would come in and really stir up the voters, rail against the poor job of the previous council and show his face everywhere.

Instead he's been kind of meh, I think he thought he had this thing wrapped up and tried to play defense, not say anything stupid and not bleed enough votes to cost him.

I give all kinds of credit to Nenshi who has made this election a little more interesting.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by kipperfan

I am in that age group as are all of my friends and quite a few of my co-workers and I know of one person that will vote for McIvor and everyone else either doesn't care, is undecided or are supporting Nenshi. Why would any reaonably young person vote for Higgins or McIvor? That doesn't make much sense to me, if anything their bases are the baby boomers.

In the 25 to 35 spectrum, and in Calgary which is an aging population center, I'm willing to bet that the vast support for McIvor in that age group in the 30 to 35 area.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

In the 25 to 35 spectrum, and in Calgary which is an aging population center, I'm willing to bet that the vast support for McIvor in that age group in the 30 to 35 area.

I'm going to have to side with Kipperfan on this one. I think Nenshi's target support is strongly in the 18-35 range. Which I think is being strongly under-represented in the polls being released. I'll agree that McIvor's support is in the over 35 area, but I haven't seen a big push from my generation towards McIvor.