[News] Monahan knows what's on the line this season: 'I have a lot to prove' - Page 30 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Eric Vail · 03-05-2022, 12:28 PM

When comparing McDavid and Gaudreau's seasons, I think +/- tells an important part of the story.

Enoch Root · 03-05-2022, 12:31 PM

The outright blanket dismissal of plus/minus is pretty ridiculous IMO.

Is it perfect? Of course not - no hockey stat is.

Does it provide information, if used intelligently? Of course it does.

Plus/minus is based on goals, so it is important to use only very large sample sizes. Also, it is a 'team' stat, meaning the people you are on the ice with, and against, matters. But that is true for most hockey stats.

If you take large sample sizes, and compare lines, it provides a good deal of information. It shows unequivocally that Lindholm's line is the top line in the NHL. It also shows that Monahan's line has been the weakest part of the team this year.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The outright blanket dismissal of plus/minus is pretty ridiculous IMO.

Is it perfect? Of course not - no hockey stat is.

Does it provide information, if used intelligently? Of course it does.

Plus/minus is based on goals, so it is important to use only very large sample sizes. Also, it is a 'team' stat, meaning the people you are on the ice with, and against, matters. But that is true for most hockey stats.

If you take large sample sizes, and compare lines, it provides a good deal of information. It shows unequivocally that Lindholm's line is the top line in the NHL. It also shows that Monahan's line has been the weakest part of the team this year.

Except Monahan hasn’t had a line. He’s probably had more linemates than any other player.

It is a weak stat and has been completely overtaken by better tools. IMO it’s often more misleading than informative.

Strange Brew · 03-05-2022, 12:38 PM

IMO Monahan comes by his plus minus honestly. He is not playing very well at either end.

Strange Brew · 03-05-2022, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Except Monahan hasn’t had a line. He’s probably had more linemates than any other player.

It is a weak stat and has been completely overtaken by better tools. IMO it’s often more misleading than informative.

What are the stats that support your defense of Monahan? As you point out, his plus minus can’t be blamed all on his linemates.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

IMO Monahan comes by his plus minus honestly. He is not playing very well at either end.

See, that’s where we differ. I think he’s consistently the best player on his line in his own end. Well, at least until Toffoli joined and that’s what 8 games ago?

The Cobra · 03-05-2022, 12:53 PM

Plus/ Minus is so flawed it’s best forgotten.

The Flames #1 line may be the leagues best, but it’s not the plus/minus stat that proves that.

Strange Brew · 03-05-2022, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Plus/ Minus is so flawed it’s best forgotten.

The Flames #1 line may be the leagues best, but it’s not the plus/minus stat that proves that.

If they weren’t playing so well, I don’t believe their plus minus would be what it is. They’d score less and would have more scored against them.

Enoch Root · 03-05-2022, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Plus/ Minus is so flawed it’s best forgotten.

The Flames #1 line may be the leagues best, but it’s not the plus/minus stat that proves that.

Individual stats never prove anything, they corroborate - which it does.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

What are the stats that support your defense of Monahan? As you point out, his plus minus can’t be blamed all on his linemates.

What defence? I’m saying that criticism base don plus minus isn’t good. I’m not saying criticism isn’t good.

Stats in favour of him? He isn’t bad in corsi, IIRC, and he’s currently 8th in points which places him exactly where he is playing. Top nine.

Mathgod · 03-05-2022, 01:27 PM

Since January 29, the Flames are 12-1-1. Over that stretch, Monahan has the 3rd worst 5-on-5 GF% (ahead of only Richardson and Richie), and 3rd worst xGF% (ahead of only Toffoli and Lucic).

However, small sample sizes often yield unreliable results, so let's zoom out a bit.

In the past 30 games, the Flames are 18-10-2. Over that stretch, Monahan has the 2nd worst 5-on-5 GF% among players with at least 200 minutes (ahead of only Dube), and 2nd worst xGF% (ahead of only Lucic).

Zooming out further, in the past 40 games, the Flames are 25-11-4. Over that stretch, Monahan has the 2nd worst 5-on-5 GF% among players with at least 300 minutes (ahead of only Dube), and 3rd worst xGF% (ahead of only Lucic and Lewis).

Zoom out any further, and you include games where he was still getting his game together due to missing training camp. So I left those games out to be fair to him.

But at what point do you realize that the numbers don't lie?

Look, I get that his linemates have also struggled and it's not all his fault. But it's clear that Monahan has not had much success this year, no matter who his linemates have been. For a while the narrative had been that he was only struggled when on a line with Lewis, but then he was moved to the 3rd line and continued to struggle away from Lewis.

If you're really looking to get Mony going, maybe the best move might be to put him on the 2nd line with Eatbread and Goalman for a few games to see if that helps him turn his game around. Or maybe don't play him 5 on 5 at all and just use him as a powerplay specialist? Although I'm not sure if that would be possible.

CsInMyBlood · 03-05-2022, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

What defence? I’m saying that criticism base don plus minus isn’t good. I’m not saying criticism isn’t good.

Stats in favour of him? He isn’t bad in corsi, IIRC, and he’s currently 8th in points which places him exactly where he is playing. Top nine.

Currently 8th in points when you consider all his top PP time when he can stand there like a dolt while the top guys whip the puck around.

Even strength he is 16th in points, a total black hole on offense.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Currently 8th in points when you consider all his top PP time when he can stand there like a dolt while the top guys whip the puck around.

Even strength he is 16th in points, a total black hole on offense.

Yes, that’s his total points. For some reason that fool Sutter kept using him on the power play. I don’t think he is 16th among forwards even strength. I was counting forwards.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 01:37 PM

Again, I’m not concerned about criticizing Monahan, and I’d like him moved for several reasons. But I’m more concerned about using him as well as possible to help the team and to make him more attractive in a trade. Plus, I like more nuanced and deeper looks into what’s wrong, because that helps is it.

Anyone who thinks Ruzicka is better right now is rolling themself. Apparently Sutter agrees.

Mathgod · 03-05-2022, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yes, that’s his total points. For some reason that fool Sutter kept using him on the power play. I don’t think he is 16th among forwards even strength. I was counting forwards.

He's 12th on the team among forwards in 5-on-5 points/60. 10th if you only count the last 40 games.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mathgod

He's 12th on the team among forwards in 5-on-5 points/60. 10th if you only count the last 40 games.

See, I think power play points count, but that’s just me.

But for most of those 40 there was no Toffoli, right, so there’s a guy in between. And I’m talking total points. PP60 is a little noisy. There’s some awfully high PP60 players who get little ice time and the stats get skewed.

Look, Monahan to me is playing right where he should be on this team. And he should be moved. I see little point in fussing about it.

CliffFletcher · 03-05-2022, 01:52 PM

If a player signed as a UFA centre last summer for $2 mil and he played the way Monahan has this season, would anyone complain if he sat in the press box?

At some point you have to set aside emotion, stop assessing a player on what they’ve done in the past, and make a cold appraisal of their play. That time has come for Monahan. This season is too important to let sentiment impair decisions.

GioforPM · 03-05-2022, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If a player signed as a UFA centre last summer for $2 mil and he played the way Monahan has this season, would anyone complain if he sat in the press box?

At some point you have to set aside emotion, stop assessing a player on what they’ve done in the past, and make a cold appraisal of their play. That time has come for Monahan. This season is too important to let sentiment impair decisions.

Ok, say he makes $2M. Who do you think would play 3C in front of him? Ruzicka (the guy who is currently benched)? Richardson? Dube?

Fire · 03-05-2022, 07:00 PM

Monahan would have 30+ goals by the end of the season if he was on the first line instead of Lindholm. Obviously Lindholm is the better player and deserves to be there, but saying Monahan should be in the press box is ridiculous.

TheChief · 03-05-2022, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fire

Monahan would have 30+ goals by the end of the season if he was on the first line instead of Lindholm. Obviously Lindholm is the better player and deserves to be there, but saying Monahan should be in the press box is ridiculous.

Last season he was on the aforementioned line and we missed the playoffs in a weak Canadian division and he was on pace for (50games-10 goals) under what any of our current top line players have for goals.

Fan sentiment with this guy is rampant. He should of been in the pressbox probably as far back as last season.