[Signing] Flames sign Brouwer (4 yrs, $4.5mil AAV, NTC)

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Expecting a career year out of a guy who turns 31 next year is optimistic. Career norms would be good enough.

Normally I would agree with this but with Brouwer his career norms are not that far from his career highs, so this isn't your typical situation. In 6 of his 8 seasons have seen him score 17-22 goals, his career high is just 25. In 7 of his 8 seasons he has recorded 33-43 points, with 43 being his career high (he did it 2 and 3 years ago). Over his ful career he has averaged 20 goals and 39 points per 82 games, so really all it takes is one extra good week through the season and he's reaching his career highs.

[bluck]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

Normally I would agree with this but with Brouwer his career norms are not that far from his career highs, so this isn't your typical situation. In 6 of his 8 seasons have seen him score 17-22 goals, his career high is just 25. In 7 of his 8 seasons he has recorded 33-43 points, with 43 being his career high (he did it 2 and 3 years ago). Over his ful career he has averaged 20 goals and 39 points per 82 games, so really all it takes is one extra good week through the season and he's reaching his career highs.

Also... Even though Backes is a good player... He ain't no Johnny! I can easily see a career high for Brouwer if he plays on that top line

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by bluck

Also... Even though Backes is a good player... He ain't no Johnny! I can easily see a career high for Brouwer if he plays on that top line

His career highs were in Washington

[Enoch Root]

His career year is a bit deceiving... in the shortened lockout season, he had 19G 14A in 47 games (33G 22A 55P pace) playing in Washington.

[Monahan For Mayor]

If he's on our top line he's putting up 20 with ease. I'd say more between 25-30. Gaudreau and Monahan are still improving. Brouwer is going to open up a ton of space for them, as well as help them win those board battles. I think we have a very good chance of seeing career highs from all 3 of them if the line has chemistry with Brouwer.

[kyuss275]

After reading this thread,I am convinced that the posters that are really negative on Brouwer, have no idea who Brouwer is, other than looking up point stats.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

After reading this thread,I am convinced that the posters that are really negative on Brouwer, have no idea who Brouwer is, other than looking up point stats.

Entirely disagree. It's the opposite actually. Looking at point stats, the contract is right where it should be.
I simply don't care for paying term and $$$S for anyone not in the core. And I don't see him as part of the core. I don't want to look at another contract in the last couple years and wish we didn't have it hanging over us and holding us back.
That's why I don't like it. Zero to do with stats, fancy or otherwise.
And again, I will be happy to be wrong.

[sa226]

4.5 aav is not "core" money.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This article is the poster child for why you don't evaluate a player based on a hero chart. Absolutely brutal.

Brouwer is a warrior and stands up for his team-mates. I have never seen a chart quantify or demonstrate qualities like that before.

I usually don't bother reading Ari's articles anymore for all the reasons you noted. Tunnel visions too hard on advanced stats. And while I'm supportive of their use... it never tells the full story.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Someone on NHL Network radio just said the Brouwer signing was the biggest head scratcher this year on July 1.

He gets the leadership in the room but...

3rd line player...too much money...too much term.

[Street Pharmacist]

I don't disagree. But then I guess that means I don't understand hockey and only look at stat sheets

[Itse]

One thing is for sure. With all the off-season changes, this is definitely Trelivings team now. Success or lack of it will be on him now.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Someone on NHL Network radio just said the Brouwer signing was the biggest head scratcher this year on July 1.



He gets the leadership in the room but...



3rd line player...too much money...too much term.

3rd line player who has played primarily in the top 6 for the last 5 years.

This seems like a tree falling in the forest thing.

If a 3rd liner rarely plays on the 3rd line, even on Cup contending teams, is he really a 3rd liner at all?

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by sa226

4.5 aav is not "core" money.

I see Backlund and Frolik as 'core' players. If not them, someone like them. Equivalent of Center/Winger combo x three.

[OBCT]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Entirely disagree. It's the opposite actually. Looking at point stats, the contract is right where it should be.
I simply don't care for paying term and $$$S for anyone not in the core. And I don't see him as part of the core. I don't want to look at another contract in the last couple years and wish we didn't have it hanging over us and holding us back.
That's why I don't like it. Zero to do with stats, fancy or otherwise.
And again, I will be happy to be wrong.

Even in a worst-case scenario, there's always the option of leaving Brouwer unprotected for the expansion draft a year from now. He seems like a guy an expansion team might covet highly. In that case, what are the cost of acquisition and opportunity for the Flames? Basically, zero.

I guess the other question is how likely his play is to fall off a cliff in 3 years. Right now, this contract is very tradeable at the deadline. Personally, I don't see that changing quite enough in 3 years to be concerned about a forced buyout or desperate trade, even considering the significant salary cap implications on the horizon for Calgary. But, I understand how some might view that differently.

[Azure]

Another thing that stands out is 2 years ago when we faced Anaheim in the playoffs, it was obvious that the Flames desperately needed a player like Brouwer. I do believe the Flames brass even talked about it.

Suddenly the top line is a lot bigger than it was at that time. Monahan was still coming into his own, and Johnny and Hudler are small. Now you have Brouwer, a much more confident Monahan, and Johnny. More size, same production. To me that is a win.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I see Backlund and Frolik as 'core' players. If not them, someone like them. Equivalent of Center/Winger combo x three.

Frolik makes Backlund a core player. In fact his contract is absolutely worth it because of how much of a player Backlund is.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

I see Backlund and Frolik as 'core' players. If not them, someone like them. Equivalent of Center/Winger combo x three.

Our defintions of core players is different. I do not see either of those 2 as core players. Especially Backlund who i think will be traded before his current contract runs out.

[Roof-Daddy]

16-18 minutes per night with 0.50 ppg production is not a third liner.

Plus, these weren't garbage teams he's played on. Chicago, Washington and St. Louis. All three are/were legit Cup contenders with deep rosters.

[Sainters7]

National Post had the Flames as one of the NHL's "Day 1 Biggest Winners" (and Edmonton as one of the Day 1 Biggest Losers). The move is even polarizing among the media it seems.

Personally I like it. For a July 1 signing the contract is decent, and as much as we want young players, you can't ice a team of exclusively under 25's. Need some vet leadership outside of just Gio.