Federal Election Polling Thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I believe CG posted the Nanos numbers for today, but here are a few more numbers for this final day of polling, both from today (and with polling through the 17th). Not sure how many more polls we will see by tomorrow morning, but notably all polling must stop after today.

Ipsos-Reid (sample size 2502):

Liberals: 38%
CPC: 31%
NDP: 22%
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=7031

Of interest is a twelve-point lead for the Liberals in Ontario (44 to 32) and have an 11-point lead in the 905 region. That is huge, as those are the seats that gave Harper his majority in the first place.

EKOS/iPolitics (sample size 1621)

Liberals: 34.3%
CPC: 32.6%
NDP: 21.0%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...n-election-42/

Of note: this is described as EKOS' "penultimate" update, so presumably they are planning an update tomorrow morning. They are the only pollster showing a liberal lead within the margin of error right now, and they also show a lead for the Liberals in Ontario and (gasp) among seniors.

[cal_guy]

Nanos will release it's final poll this evening.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

No i don't get this. He ran to be the leader of a country not the leader of a minority government. If he loses and chooses to step aside to give a more engaged party leader a shot at leadership, that's his choice.

So if he can't rule Canada as a dictator it's perfectly reasonable for him to abandon his constituents? The whole point of our democratic system is that each candidate runs to become an MP and represent the constituents of the given riding, and then the leader of the party that so happens to have the most seats gets to be the Prime Minister.

To resign as soon as you find out you won't be able to rule the entire country in a dictatorial fashion is not only a giant middle finger to the constituents of the riding, it's a giant middle finger to the entire concept of democracy.

My 2c.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

So if he can't rule Canada as a dictator it's perfectly reasonable for him to abandon his constituents? The whole point of our democratic system is that each candidate runs to become an MP and represent the constituents of the given riding, and then the leader of the party that so happens to have the most seats gets to be the Prime Minister.

To resign as soon as you find out you won't be able to rule the entire country in a dictatorial fashion is not only a giant middle finger to the constituents of the riding, it's a giant middle finger to the entire concept of democracy.

My 2c.

Prentice did this and returned to his cushy bank job no? At least Dion served out his term as MP after he lost.

[Nehkara]

EKOS has release their final numbers. A Liberal surge:

LIB: 35.8
CPC: 31.9
NDP: 20.4
GRN: 5.6
BLQ: 4.9
Other: 1

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...erals-surging/


There will be final numbers from Nanos tonight too in just over an hour.

Here are the leads from each polling firm that have a recent poll:

EKOS: Liberals +3.9
Ipsos: Liberals +7
Nanos: Liberals +6.8
Leger: Liberals +8
Angus: Liberals +4
Mainstreet: Liberals +5

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Prentice did this and returned to his cushy bank job no? At least Dion served out his term as MP after he lost.

Dion is still an MP.

[Dion]

My guess is Harper will stay on after he is defeated. It will be his own party that will call for a leadership review with him being replaced at some future date.

[Nehkara]

Mainstreet Research ‏@MainStResearch 11 minutes ago
Our prediction on October 13th was a Liberal majority government. It remains so. #elxn42

[Kjesse]

Majority? Shocking. We'll see though I think the libs will pick up 3 seats in Calgary which is shocking in and of itself I suppose.

Dion, I think Harper will resign on his own very soon.

[MarchHare]

If the Conservatives don't win the most seats tomorrow, I put the odds of Harper resigning during his concession speech at 99%.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Looks like Nanos numbers are out.

According to numbers released on Oct. 18, the day before the election:

The Liberals have 37.3 per cent support nationally
The Conservatives have 30.5 per cent support nationally
The NDP has 22.1 per cent support nationally
The Greens are at 4.7 per cent support nationally

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elect...nues-1.2615348

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

Looks like Nanos numbers are out.



http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elect...nues-1.2615348

Those are the same numbers from this morning. Nanos is apparently publishing one final poll later tonight.

[Hockey Fan #751]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Those are the same numbers from this morning. Nanos is apparently publishing one final poll later tonight.

Oops, I read 9:14 AM EDT as 9:14 PM.

[MarchHare]

Nanos numbers are now out (on Twitter at least).

https://twitter.com/niknanos

Note that Sunday's numbers are a 1-day poll only (sample size 722) as opposed to the usual 3-day rolling average he's been using throughout the campaign.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Per his twitter, Nanos shows the Libs at 39% tonight, but I don't know if that is overall or just the daily sample.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Per his twitter, Nanos shows the Libs at 39% tonight, but I don't know if that is overall or just the daily sample.

Sunday only, but the daily sample was 722 instead of the 400 he uses in his 3-day rolling averages.

[MarchHare]

Full Nanos report: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

[Parallex]

Don't like 1 day polling... sample size is way to tiny. I mean I'd rather have it then not but I'd rather have it rolled into the three day to produce a larger sample.

Forum (for whatever that's worth... that firm has a lot of reputation to rebuild IMO) is out with their last poll as well... http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...-majority-seen

LPC: 40
CPC: 30
NDP: 20
Bloc: 6
GRN: 3

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Delgar

Majority? Shocking. We'll see though I think the libs will pick up 3 seats in Calgary which is shocking in and of itself I suppose.

Dion, I think Harper will resign on his own very soon.

I would hope he resigns also. He's been in power far too long and has hurt the party big time. He would have done the party a huge favour by stepping down a year or so ealier and let someone else lead the party into this election.

[Mathgod]

Egads, the Bloc might end up with more seats than Mulcair if this trend continues.