Have the Flames Scouts Really Drafted that Poorly??

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by vulcan

canadian junior players can't do that. They play (18 year old draftees) two years more in junior or straight to the nhl. it's the law.

i am the law

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

It doesn't change the fact that finding this players is pretty much luck. Sure, I concede to your point that Calgary is one of 3 teams that hasn't been lucky enough to have a Renaud, or Ryder, or whoever, be a NHLer. It is clear that the lack of talented entry level contracts puts the team at a serious disadvantage. The time will come, hopefully soon!

So apparently, Calgary is one of the unluckiest teams in the NHL? Maybe the more likely answer is that Calgary's scouting has been not very good?

Until the organization acknowledges that they have been drafting poorly, things aren't likely to change - they'll blow it off as 'bad luck' too...

edit next year you can add Carlson from the Caps to the list - kid looks like a player...drafted 2008...pick 27.

[Patrick]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

So apparently, Calgary is one of the unluckiest teams in the NHL? Maybe the more likely answer is that Calgary's scouting has been not very good?

Until the organization acknowledges that they have been drafting poorly, things aren't likely to change - they'll blow it off as 'bad luck' too...

edit next year you can add Carlson from the Caps to the list - kid looks like a player...drafted 2008...pick 27.

No offense but Carlson wouldnt touch the Flames top 6 on D. Not right now at least. Washington D is thin, they have Green, Shultz and Poti. The rest would be considered depth D on the Flames, ie #6 D.

- Tyler Sloan - Id even put Pardy ahead of him
- John Erskine - same as above
- Joe Corvo - isnt bad but very bad defensively. Might crack Flames #2PP but thats all.
Shaone Morrisonn - a #5/6 defensive dman, Id put him in the like of pardy right now.

By the time the Flames have some openeings in their D, IMO a guy like Erixon is ready and will be a solid addition as well. Whom was picked later too.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Patrick

No offense but Carlson wouldnt touch the Flames top 6 on D. Not right now at least. Washington D is thin, they have Green, Shultz and Poti. The rest would be considered depth D on the Flames, ie #6 D.

- Tyler Sloan - Id even put Pardy ahead of him
- John Erskine - same as above
- Joe Corvo - isnt bad but very bad defensively. Might crack Flames #2PP but thats all.
Shaone Morrisonn - a #5/6 defensive dman, Id put him in the like of pardy right now.

By the time the Flames have some openeings in their D, IMO a guy like Erixon is ready and will be a solid addition as well. Whom was picked later too.

I agree that the caps are weak defensively right now, though Carlson looked great in the WJC and he seems to have passed by Karl Alzner in the caps depth chart.

He's only 20 right now and he doesn't look out of place; I think Green has looked pretty awful actually......wouldn't surprise me if he becomes like the Ottawa Karlson next year.

I am hopeful about erixon...

[jeremywilhelm]

I think if Carlson was I the flames system he would still be in Abby. Looks like a great prospect bit he wouldn't be in the NHL yet.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

So apparently, Calgary is one of the unluckiest teams in the NHL? Maybe the more likely answer is that Calgary's scouting has been not very good?

Until the organization acknowledges that they have been drafting poorly, things aren't likely to change - they'll blow it off as 'bad luck' too...

edit next year you can add Carlson from the Caps to the list - kid looks like a player...drafted 2008...pick 27.

And this is why these comparisons are just wrong. The caps were picking after two years in a row of top 5 picks, and 4 years removed from choosing OV. Do you think their draft strategy was different than the flames... probably. Still, they get Mike Green at 29 in 2004, he works out real well, but Pokulok was drafted by the Capitals 14th overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.... wow did he work out? You can go on forever with this because sure there are steals to be had, but they are rare (~5%), thus for every 1 player who was a success 20 were not.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

And this is why these comparisons are just wrong. The caps were picking after two years in a row of top 5 picks, and 4 years removed from choosing OV. Do you think their draft strategy was different than the flames... probably. Still, they get Mike Green at 29 in 2004, he works out real well, but Pokulok was drafted by the Capitals 14th overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.... wow did he work out? You can go on forever with this because sure there are steals to be had, but they are rare (~5%), thus for every 1 player who was a success 20 were not.

we'll have to agree to disagree then i am afraid. Sure, there are misses on lots of teams too...just seems like Calgary has a disproportionate number of misses than a lot of teams.

who was the last prospect that actually did anything for Calgary? Yes, the arguments of trading picks for players (notably Bourque and Kipper) is a fair one, but why does Sutter get credit for those moves as being 'astute' at making those moves and other GMs picking later round talent are considered a 'fluke'?

not sure why people get defensive at the notion that Calgary needs to get better with their drafting? guys like Vernon, Neuiwy, Roberts, MacInnes, Suter, Fleury were all draft picks...it'd be nice if we could draft another top end player (Backlund looks the part...and phaneuf, well, no point opening that can of worms)

[Isbrant]

People tend to talk about drafting but what they really mean is drafting and developing. The Flames have had a problem with drafting but I also think their development system was not very good.

When Sutter started as the GM there was not even a farm team. They have had to get that in place and we all know the issues they have had with that. A little stability with the farm team would go a long way to helping the Flames develop players to their best ability.

[Nuje]

Noone, unless they use a solid statistical analysis (which I am not wasting my time on), will convince me otherwise.

Ok. If I take a draft, such as the 2005 draft (most players drafted here should have at least played a bit in the NHL). The teams who's first rounders played 0 games:

Buffalo, Washington (0 of 2), Atlanta. Now, I'm going to take those guys drafting from 2005 (excluding the first rounders) to 2010, and ignore any pick 14th overall or higher (the teams who miss the playoffs)

Buffalo: Mike Weber (serviceable Dman), Jhonas Enroth (still a good goalie prospect as far as I've heard), Tyler Ennis (beat Nemisz to the show having been picked right after him).

Washington: Varlamov, Carlson (admittedly not great, but who knows how happy fans are with their scouting)

Atlanta: Not a whole lot there...in fact, their drafting record looks plain ludicrous, and even worse than the Flames

Now teams who's 1st rounders have played, but not much: Detroit, Islanders, Blackhawks, Flames, Lightning.

Detroit: Helm, Abdelkader, Matthias
Islanders: Not terribly much
Chicago: Hjalmarsson, not much more (although they drafted high a few times, and took a few superstars, worth noting here)
Calgary: Backlund, Negrin, Keetley, Sutter (and I didn't include guys like Keetley, Sutter, and even Negrin off the other teams, except maybe Enroth in Buffalo)
Tampa Bay: Nobody really

Now out of these teams:
Detroit, Islanders, Chicago, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Washington, Buffalo...I'd say that Chicago and Washington are where they are due to being in the basement (similarily, most of Atlanta's decent prospects are there for the same reason). Detroit and Buffalo manage to squeeze the best possible players out of that group. The rest of them....Atlanta, Islanders, Tampa...these are organizations that nobody wants to (nor shoudl they want to) emulate. Even including Chicago and Washington, I like our drafting better. I still do not think that it's "good" though. Perhaps average, but not "good". Buffalo, Detroit, Nashville, those teams are great at it. If you want to win consistently, you have to be exactly that.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

not sure why people get defensive at the notion that Calgary needs to get better with their drafting? guys like Vernon, Neuiwy, Roberts, MacInnes, Suter, Fleury were all draft picks...it'd be nice if we could draft another top end player (Backlund looks the part...and phaneuf, well, no point opening that can of worms)

Noone gets defensive about the Flames needing to draft better, we all hope for that. It is about assigning blame, and what the expectations are for picks outside the top 10 of a draft.

I'll agree with you on one thing to close off, one needs to go all the way back to the late 1980s to find Flames picks consistently working out (the names you list, and others). The draft record through the 90s is ABYSMAL, especially 1997 and 1998 with those two 6th overall picks (but no point opening that can of worms). While the Flames continue to pick outside the top ten it will be very unlikely that a player will become an impact player right away.

Maybe this will be the year that we will draft our Zetterberg. That year, Detroit had NO PICKS until the 4th round! But it wasn't their 4th, 5th or 6th round picks that became the Conn Smythe player, it was their 7th round pick. People can make comments about the great Detroit drafting, but it is largely luck (and it doesn't hurt to play well with a certain player called Datsyuk,whom they chose 7 players in earlier rounds who never played a game in the NHL).

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

While the Flames continue to pick outside the top ten it will be very unlikely that a player will become an impact player right away.

I guess this is the key point of the thread though - teams have picked very good players with picks later than top ten. Heck the list of the flames picks mentioned are all outside of the top ten, with Roberts being the highest at 15.

its not a question of making an impact right away; with our drafting of late (including Sutter's), the question is whether they will ever make an impact?

[Patrick]

So how come no one ever brings up the fact that the Flames originally drafted Craig Anderson too?

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Patrick

So how come no one ever brings up the fact that the Flames originally drafted Craig Anderson too?

none of us want to puke in our mouths i guess!

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

its not a question of making an impact right away; with our drafting of late (including Sutter's), the question is whether they will ever make an impact?

Some day just by chance, hopefully within our lifetimes!

[Cactus Jack]

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

It doesn't change the fact that finding this players is pretty much luck. Sure, I concede to your point that Calgary is one of 3 teams that hasn't been lucky enough to have a Renaud, or Ryder, or whoever, be a NHLer. It is clear that the lack of talented entry level contracts puts the team at a serious disadvantage. The time will come, hopefully soon!

You can call it luck or just admit Calgary isn't doing the job drafting or developing. If it were merely luck no money would be invested in scouting. We just plain suck at, the Flames are just sadly one of the 3 squirrels to not find a nut yet but it's not because of luck.

Originally Posted by Doc Hudson

And this is why these comparisons are just wrong. The caps were picking after two years in a row of top 5 picks, and 4 years removed from choosing OV. Do you think their draft strategy was different than the flames... probably. Still, they get Mike Green at 29 in 2004, he works out real well, but Pokulok was drafted by the Capitals 14th overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.... wow did he work out? You can go on forever with this because sure there are steals to be had, but they are rare (~5%), thus for every 1 player who was a success 20 were not.

Yes, the Caps blew that pick on Poikulok but they made up for it with picks like Green, Semin, Varlamov, Karlsson, Fehr, Schultz and Gordon. Whereas we take guys like Chucko and Pelech erroneously but have no other good picks to make up for it. That's call bad drafting and developing, and that is the difference.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

You can call it luck or just admit Calgary isn't doing the job drafting or developing.

Yes, the Caps blew that pick on Poikulok but they made up for it with picks like Green, Semin, Varlamov, Karlsson, Fehr, Schultz and Gordon. Whereas we take guys like Chucko and Pelech erroneously but have no other good picks to make up for it. That's call bad drafting and developing, and that is the difference.

I don't have to admit anything, you picking out a couple of players from over ten years of drafts does in no way show that finding these players is more than luck. The caps would be nowhere without their top 5 picks in 2004 and 2006! Sorry, teams with multiple top 5 picks have done better, not a surprise. They may have wasted one if Karl Alzner has fallen down the depth chart as people saying... there are no sure bets.

Now, Semin was a 13th overall pick chosen after Nystrom... sure, that hurts. I feel we have drafted players equal to Karlsson, Fehr, Schultz and Gordon... Moss has numbers equivilent to Fehr. Green and Semin don't make Washington a contender, its all Olvechkin and Backstrom. They make everyone else on that team better.

We can disagree, its ok. But we can all hope things are turning around with some of our picks in the last 3 drafts. We all know that without a top 5 pick, they will take an extra few years of development.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Patrick

No offense but Carlson wouldnt touch the Flames top 6 on D. Not right now at least. Washington D is thin, they have Green, Shultz and Poti. The rest would be considered depth D on the Flames, ie #6 D.

- Tyler Sloan - Id even put Pardy ahead of him
- John Erskine - same as above
- Joe Corvo - isnt bad but very bad defensively. Might crack Flames #2PP but thats all.
Shaone Morrisonn - a #5/6 defensive dman, Id put him in the like of pardy right now.

By the time the Flames have some openeings in their D, IMO a guy like Erixon is ready and will be a solid addition as well. Whom was picked later too.

Not to mention that Negrin and Pelech will be ready soon, if not next year.

And Brodie is another guy that has done well.

[Flame4Ever]

Originally Posted by flamesrule14

Carlson wasn't playing in the OHL during his draft year though.

No but Nemisz sure as hell was and it was pretty obvious that he had a long way to go before making the show and he wasn't going to be a game breaking player ever.

[Doc Hudson]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

No but Nemisz sure as hell was and it was pretty obvious that he had a long way to go before making the show and he wasn't going to be a game breaking player ever.

Why is this in past tense? If Nemisz is developed properly he could still yet be an impact player. I know he hasn't worked out quite as well as this rose-colored glasses forum had hoped... but we all must be realistic. Even the Mr Clutch Jordan Eberle isn't an imact player yet (chosen 3 picks earlier) or really anyone after Del Zotto at 20th has shown they can make the jump to the NHL (although Tyler Ennis looks good).

[Weiser Wonder]

Originally Posted by Flame4Ever

No but Nemisz sure as hell was and it was pretty obvious that he had a long way to go before making the show and he wasn't going to be a game breaking player ever.

Nemisz is slow right now and that's his main problem. Apparently, his stride is fine but he just needs to add strength. If this is true, it's a good pick for the Flames because he has size and good hands.