How/Why does Tod Button still have a job?

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I've said a lot of this stuff in the past when this topic comes out but I'll repeat it again. It's not simply a matter of good or bad scouting. When it comes to an organization's ability to produce NHL players there are a myriad of factors at work
- Where they draft, particularly in the 1st round
- How many high round picks they have. In general Sutter has had to use picks to fill out his NHL team while asset-rich organizations like Colorado have been able to do the opposite - stockpile 1st, 2nds and 3rds to fill out the entire pipeline. More bullets in the chamber=more chance to develop NHLers.
- The development system as a whole in an organization.
- Where you draft in what years. A 15th pick one year can be the same as a 45th pick the year after depending on how deep that draft goes. There are some drafts in recent memory where guys when in the top 15 - and the year after they probably would have gone in the 2nd round. So when you suck matters as much as how much you suck. Gotta time it right. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington did. Calgary and Edmonton back in their down years did not.
- Luck. The Canucks had horrible luck when Luc Bourdon died. The Flames have had bad luck with Mickey Renaud, Dan Ryder, Brent Krahn, etc. Some things aren't in your control.


I think people always want to be able to blame a specific person or reason for things - and the reality is that the issue is far more complex than that. So we can sit here and complain about the lack of prospects - or we can dig a little deeper to try and understand what really is driving this.

Fair enough Jiri,

I take your point... but I believe that the right INDIVIDUAL, really can make a huge difference. Darryl Sutter is an individual, and yet our trade performance in terms of return (some will argue this only applies to years prior to this one) improved massively after his arrival. It's not as if the Flames organization got better at trading, Sutter, the individual made this stuff happen.

Luck is fine in explaining Renaud (who may never have made it to the show anyway) and Krahn. I do not agree with you about Ryder though. Other teams did interviews with this guy and figured out that mentally there were questions, and therefore did NOT pick him. Calgary did, and made a mistake.

If you have the right individuals in the right positions, they can affect change and Lead a team of people in the right direction. Can you honestly say Tod Button has done that? I can't.

I'll agree with you that it's probably not ONLY his fault, but that hardly means he should keep his job. Ken King's job (along with Darryl) is to make this organization better, and in some areas they have absolutely succeeded. In this area, they haven't, so therefore, I think it's time we saw some change.

[JiriHrdina]

But how can you blame a specific guy without understanding how the organization functions and the other factors at play. You are reaching a conclusions without understanding enough of the determining factors. I'm not saying I know the answers - and I guess that's the point - I admit I don't know if he should be fired or not while others are ready to blame him.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

Anyways not sure if comparing now to 80's is fair, different era, different time, different situation.

Sure, please read the summary I did of the picks made by our fellow NW division teams. There are other teams out there still doing this. Why can't we? Should we be content to make excuses.

I wouldn't be in my organization. Scouting isn't an exact science - you're right. But you'd think 10 years would yield more than David Moss. Can you really argue with that?

[MelBridgeman]

in

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Sure, please read the summary I did of the picks made by our fellow NW division teams.

I did and I am proud to say that I coached TJ Gallardi when he played Minor Midget AAA!

But I think Button has found some pretty good players past the first round the last 10 years, Prust, Boyd, Pardy, Lombardi,Moss,Stoll, Foster, Moen and even Craig Anderson (although not sure if Button was around in 99)

Nothing really amazing, but niether is your list...nothing bad either

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by hkstylez

I bet Backlund will be traded away in 3 years just like Phaneuf, that is if D.Sutter is still the GM.

Not a chance. Backlund's the most humble person around. And, as most people will point out, it was Phaneuf's attitude that landed him in Toronto in the first place.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

But how can you blame a specific guy without understanding how the organization functions and the other factors at play. You are reaching a conclusions without understanding enough of the determining factors. I'm not saying I know the answers - and I guess that's the point - I admit I don't know if he should be fired or not while others are ready to blame him.

Yeah, I don't think Button makes unilateral decisions on who to draft or sign from junior.

I think our scouting team needs to be better though, but Button is only part of that.

[Ziggy Lidstrom]

I agree with jiri more so than any other opinion. Yet, I will stress the importance of having young players to contribute substantially while playing on their entry-level deals. This imperative indicates that scouting has become even more important in the 'Salary Cap Era'. These types of players are tough commodities to acquire. Next year will be a big one for the flames if Backlund can come in stronger and produce at a high-clip.

Now if you can't procure the aforementioned commodities, you need to be clever enough to identify ones that could become available. IMO, Nicklas Backstrom would be an ideal candidate to sign to a big RFA deal. 6 million plus costs you 3 first rounders. I will never forget when Sergei federov was an RFA and carolina balked at giving up the first round picks as compensation. The only first rounder to ever amount to anything was Aaron ward.

Button and sutter better pray that Brodie, nemisz, Erixon, Wahl, Howse and pelech turn out to be real contributors since the flames have finally addressed the development system by locking into a deal with abbotsford as long as they have. The only excuse those two can use is draft position and that is getting tired. If this team doesn't win a cup with its current prospects graduating before Iggy, Reggie and Kipp move on, you blow the whole thing up and really stink it up like, pittsburgh stink.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by ma-skis.com

I have to believe that the developmental system plays a part in colorado and detroit as well, (assuming you're talking about datsyuk, zetterberg, drury,, hejduk)

those systems were flush with strong leaders and strong teams and kids didn't need to be fast tracked through and have huge expectations put on them.

As important scouting is, I would have to say player development would have to play an equally important roll, an 18 year old kid still has a lot of development, physically and maturity wise to consider. If you do it wrong, you end up ruining careers, *cough* daigle *cough*

right now, flames are taking their time and developing servicable players, start there, and lte blooming stars like datsyuk will eventually come out of the woodwork.

People like to point at Detroit as the model for player development, but not every player is Zetterberg or a Datsyuk and should be treated as such. They're out there, but so are plenty of other players who have done just fine with quicker development paths. What about guys like Zajac? You can stall guys by holding them back too long, and I think the Flames are guilty of this.

I think a big part of this is that when you have someone like Brule come in young and not have success you get to watch them fail. They guys who become career minor leaguers because they never got better by playing against better competition? Look at a guy like Backlund. The Flames could have easily said "he's not ready", but they called him up and it worked. (Granted, I'd rather have him in the AHL than the press box.)

I also think the cap has changed things, as well as the lowere UFA age. The best cap value guys are on their 1st contract. 2nd contract, you start losing your advantage from having drafted the guy. 3rd contract, you're paying for UFA years, at just about UFA right. Guy hits UFA, your advantage is gone. Look at Nystrom. He developed slow, and as a result has barely been around and already qualifies for UFA after this season. This makes it advantageous to develop guys quicker.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

Anyways not sure if comparing now to 80's is fair, different era, different time, different situation.

Very good point. A lot of teams have found late round gems by doing leg work that others weren't doing. Calgary's picks in the '80s from the American College system and Detroit's heavy emphasis on European scouting in the '90s paid dividends. Nowadays, those unexplored territories don't really exist. Every team has extensive European and college scouting, so it's a much more level playing field in terms of finding diamonds in the rough. You still get guys like Alex Edler who only 2 scouts actually see play, but for the most part, those days are gone.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Yeah, I don't think Button makes unilateral decisions on who to draft or sign from junior.

I think our scouting team needs to be better though, but Button is only part of that.

He's the Leader of that team. Don't you think he should be accountable?

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

in

I did and I am proud to say that I coached TJ Gallardi when he played Minor Midget AAA!

But I think Button has found some pretty good players past the first round the last 10 years, Prust, Boyd, Pardy, Lombardi,Moss,Stoll, Foster, Moen and even Craig Anderson (although not sure if Button was around in 99)

Nothing really amazing, but niether is your list...nothing bad either

Prust - Bubble NHL 4th Liner (Plus he was a 2nd round pick and therefore does not fit the criteria of the thread)

Boyd - ??? Too early to call, might end up a career AHLer, could become a 2nd liner.

Pardy - Borderline NHL D-man.

Lombardi - average/below average 2nd liner

Moss - Good third Liner

Stoll - Great 2nd Line C, but up and down career. (Doesn't count if we're looking at the criteria of 3rd round or later - Stoll was a 2nd rounder)

Foster - (Doesn't count if we're looking at the criteria of 3rd round or later - Foster was a 2nd rounder)

Anderson - Took 10 years to become a starter... more than any drafting franchise would ever invest.

___________________________

Looking at the above, if you think that is acceptable along with our poor first round drafting, then you certainly have lower standards than I would.

Good organizations expect success. They EXPECT performance that is ABOVE average. There is nothing based on the above picks which suggests the Flames drafting is even Average, in fact it's below average. One needs to only look at the number of drafted players in the lineup.

Stop making apologies for these guys, as fans we should expect better results.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Very good point. A lot of teams have found late round gems by doing leg work that others weren't doing. Calgary's picks in the '80s from the American College system and Detroit's heavy emphasis on European scouting in the '90s paid dividends. Nowadays, those unexplored territories don't really exist. Every team has extensive European and college scouting, so it's a much more level playing field in terms of finding diamonds in the rough. You still get guys like Alex Edler who only 2 scouts actually see play, but for the most part, those days are gone.

See Colorado and Detroit. Some organizations still manage to find talent. Probably because they have personnel astute enough to recognize it.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

But how can you blame a specific guy without understanding how the organization functions and the other factors at play. You are reaching a conclusions without understanding enough of the determining factors. I'm not saying I know the answers - and I guess that's the point - I admit I don't know if he should be fired or not while others are ready to blame him.

I'm sure if you look at the guy's job description it requires him to find talent. You can say we failed to develop the guys he picked, but so often we see players fail in one organization, and yet thrive in another. That can be said for 2 or 3 of the picks over the last DECADE, (Stoll and Foster comes to mind) but for the most part, these picks have faded in obscurity. Perhaps these picks never had the talent to begin with?

[1stLand]

i think it is safe to say that Calgary has the worst drafting in the league over the past 15 years.

Look at these gems:
Daniel tkatchuk (sp)
Downie (Criminal)
Rico Fata
Brent Krahn
Matt Keetley
Leland Irving

The list goes on and on.
Is there an unemployed Head Scout out there somewhere?????

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

i think it is safe to say that Calgary has the worst drafting in the league over the past 15 years.

Look at these gems:
Daniel tkatchuk (sp)
Downie (Criminal)
Rico Fata
Brent Krahn
Matt Keetley
Leland Irving

The list goes on and on.
Is there an unemployed Head Scout out there somewhere?????

Tkaczuk had some brutal injury problems..........that was bad luck. He was a great junior. Any other team would have drafted him at the same spot. I remember Gord Miller saying it was like 'Christmas in June' for the Flames when he fell to the team. No fault there.

When did the Flames draft Downie?

Fata was iffy.........huge speed, not big in intelligence. Big risk, big reward. Didn't work out.

Krahn had injury problems. He wasn't a bad pick, just bad luck.

Keetley and Irving are still too early to tell.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Boyd - ??? Too early to call, might end up a career AHLer, could become a 2nd liner.

A career AHLer? I think a young guy who has nearly played 200 NHL games is pretty safely out of career AHLer territory.

[SoulOfTheFlame]

Originally Posted by icarus

A career AHLer? I think a young guy who has nearly played 200 NHL games is pretty safely out of career AHLer territory.

Fair enough.

You could say career 4th Liner or 2nd Liner instead... Don't really want this to turn into a Dustin Boyd thread, but he's far from out of the woods. Small "Skilled" forwards who can't crack a top 6, and are career minus players rarely last that long. If his development does not continue it will be Europe or AHL for him.

[flamesrule14]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Prust - Bubble NHL 4th Liner (Plus he was a 2nd round pick and therefore does not fit the criteria of the thread).

Prust was a third rounder.

i think it is safe to say that Calgary has the worst drafting in the league over the past 15 years.

Look at these gems:
Daniel tkatchuk (sp)
Downie (Criminal)
Rico Fata
Brent Krahn
Matt Keetley
Leland Irving

The list goes on and on.
Is there an unemployed Head Scout out there somewhere?????

Downie? Uh what?

Keetley? He was what a fifth rounder? Not sure why you are even bringing him up. Pretty early to judge him still. Goaltenders usually take longer to develop and he's shown some signs of potential in his three pro seasons.

Irving? Sure he's struggled this season, but it is only his second pro season. Again way to early to judge him.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by 1stLand

i think it is safe to say that Calgary has the worst drafting in the league over the past 15 years.

Look at these gems:
Daniel tkatchuk (sp)
Downie (Criminal)
Rico Fata
Brent Krahn
Matt Keetley
Leland Irving

The list goes on and on.
Is there an unemployed Head Scout out there somewhere?????

IMO they have been amongst the worst in the league over the past 15 years in picking in the first round which has not improved under Darryl Sutter. That can't be denied as outside of Phaneuf, Stillman, and maybe Morris (who was actually a pretty fairly calculated reach when picked) it's been failure after failure but they have actually done better after the first round over the years. Overall not the worst in the league but definately bottom ten. Not sure though if it's a scouting issue or an organizational issue however as even when the Flames to draft skilled players with potential they are usually developed poorly especially when being brought into the NHL level.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by SoulOfTheFlame

Prust - Bubble NHL 4th Liner (Plus he was a 2nd round pick and therefore does not fit the criteria of the thread)

Boyd - ??? Too early to call, might end up a career AHLer, could become a 2nd liner.

Pardy - Borderline NHL D-man.

Lombardi - average/below average 2nd liner

Moss - Good third Liner

Stoll - Great 2nd Line C, but up and down career. (Doesn't count if we're looking at the criteria of 3rd round or later - Stoll was a 2nd rounder)

Foster - (Doesn't count if we're looking at the criteria of 3rd round or later - Foster was a 2nd rounder)

Anderson - Took 10 years to become a starter... more than any drafting franchise would ever invest.

___________________________

Looking at the above, if you think that is acceptable along with our poor first round drafting, then you certainly have lower standards than I would.

Good organizations expect success. They EXPECT performance that is ABOVE average. There is nothing based on the above picks which suggests the Flames drafting is even Average, in fact it's below average. One needs to only look at the number of drafted players in the lineup.

Stop making apologies for these guys, as fans we should expect better results.

Why can you include 2nd rounders in your list (Galiardi/Raymond) and I can't?