The glow is off the boom. Time to move.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by JD

Being in the service industry myself, I can attest to the fact that whatever boom was taking place is no longer a part of the oilpatch. Our utilization rates are low, in fact, much lower than predicted. Q1 revenue was about half of what was predicted. Layoffs have happened twice in the past 3 months in my company. Office staff too (engineers, sales), not just field workers. Salaries have been frozen and bonuses aren't being awarded.

Our sales dept has been working hard to find out what the operators' price point is... they all want lower costs as fotze points out, but we're trying to figure out how low we need to be, it's murky right now! Certainly an environment of tough competition among the service companies has been created... night and day from 2 years ago.

However, construction is still booming in Calgary, and that sucks for us because we're competing with that industry for supplies such as cement and related chemicals.

Calgary's still a really strong economy, but things are starting to show a bit of a slowdown for all.

I think Oil services took advantage of almost overnight higher commodity prices in 2005 and jacked up rig rates. They started to go like gangbusters hiring crews and building rigs at break-neck paces. In the US rig rates have been much more stable and American companies that have operations on both sides of the border have limited their prospects in Canada due to these rates. There is a more competitive rig market in the US and it keeps prices at least somewhat stable. Expect this level of competition to come to Canada because even at $70 oil and $8 gas the rates that are being charged are not able to make a lot of wells predictably profitable. CBM especially.

[metal_geek]

Right now I work IT for a Oil and Gas manufacturing firm... Manufacturing is definatly in a slump... I've been doing this for 10 years now, and the summer of 2001 was basically the same thing. I don't know if it's the value of the Dollar, or the material cost of Construction, but its not the lack of labour that it has been in the past few years..

Personally, I think we are in the last half of a Construction phase over the 10-12 years .. and there are ALOT of jobs associated with that.. Places like Ft Mac, and Grand Prarie and Calgary expecially.... What I think is gonna hurt the "BOOM" the most is when that construction/Manufacturing slows down. There are gonna be alot less people around with "Construction" Money to spend on Trucks, and Houses, and Quads and Campers and various other luxury Items. I think alot of the people installing windows, and Shingles, and other such items will be moving and taking thier earnings with them to the next construction Phase place in Canada.

I think we're gonna move back into more of a service/ white collar type economy where servicing the newly built infrastructure and high level operations are gonna power a more subdued growth. I'm banking on "relativlty" tough times for the construction/Manufactuing industrys over the next 4-10 years.


Really though, I'm only going on what makes sense to me, and what I've seen in the past 10 years, so there is a good chance that I'm completely wrong... In the mean time I've recently put in my notice with the company I've worked at successfully for the last 10 years, and taken an IT Managerial position with a company that liquidates Construction equipment ......

On a side note... There is definalty more demand for IT right now in calgary then that has been anytime since I moved here.. 10 years ago for whatever thats worth..
________
Lovely Wendie

[Lurch]

I think there are several things going on that could hit Alberta more than most of those heavily levered into oil prices want to realize. Ontario, California and BC have all recently adopted the following policy:

http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/fact-sheet/5155/

Basically, it adopts lifecycle carbon standards for fuel. I expect that this will eventually result in much lower netbacks for oilsands projects as these are very carbon intensive. Oilsands oil will be worth much less in these markets, driving a bigger wedge between heavy and light oil prices, IMO. Unless Alberta (and oilsands specifically) can lower their carbon footprint, there are a lot of things that can hurt the province independant of actual oil prices.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Big shift in the real estate market. That said, it doesn't mean things are in the crapper, just that it's gone from "absolutely nuts" to just "strong".

Back then, single-family homes were selling after an average of 14 days on the market while condominiums were being scooped up on average 12 days. With increasing inventories in both sectors in May this year, the average days on the market have risen dramatically to 25 days for single-family homes and 24 days for condos.
And today, with an 82 per cent increase in the number of homes on the market over last year, potential homebuyers have more selection in the market as listings have soared compared to a year ago.
"With the increase of listings this month, we are seeing a shift in the market giving it more balance," said Ron Stanners, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "With this shift, it is more important than ever to price your home competitively, if you want it to sell quickly.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...873cab&k=90650

[Sylvanfan]

^^^
Yeah, I sort of pooped the bed not having my place in St.Albert ready for last month. The area where I live has about 110 houses between like 4 different cul de sacs. Last week there were 4 places put up for sale to go with 2 that were already for sale. I have the lowest priced house by $20k right now, and my house is the same size, and has as big a yard and a better location than the two closest comparables. Yet nothing in terms of even showings in the first week. Walking my dogs around the neighbouring streets, I don't think theres a single street right now that doesn't have a house for sale, and many have these so called new listings. Prices are still pretty hight, but the market is really starting to calm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the days on market state continue rising until September.

[McG]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

^^^
Yeah, I sort of pooped the bed not having my place in St.Albert ready for last month. The area where I live has about 110 houses between like 4 different cul de sacs. Last week there were 4 places put up for sale to go with 2 that were already for sale. I have the lowest priced house by $20k right now, and my house is the same size, and has as big a yard and a better location than the two closest comparables. Yet nothing in terms of even showings in the first week. Walking my dogs around the neighbouring streets, I don't think theres a single street right now that doesn't have a house for sale, and many have these so called new listings. Prices are still pretty hight, but the market is really starting to calm, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the days on market state continue rising until September.

i live in st. albert too and what i have been told is that many people are trying to sell their existing home and move to new homes. the problem is that genstar is holding the lots as long as they can so there is an incredible pent up demand.

timberlea hasn't even started yet and genstar is slowing down sales in northridge for example.

in speaking with bankers (as one does), they believe that the prices are still rising and will have a higher rate of increase than calgary.

the journal for example says that houses are increasing in value $400 per day.

Once the upgraders come online...any spare homes will be snapped up.

[metallicat]

Sorry to all you homeowners looking to sell or cash in, but God I hope prices drop a little bit. It's depressing to know that I dropped the ball and missed buying anything in the past few years when I should have. I know things aren't going to get cheap again for a long time, if ever, but just something a little more reasonable than right now.

[OracleOfCalgary]

Your wish will come true. Here is the future:

"Calgary Metro" listings as of today:" 3800
Predicted "Calgary Metro" listings on Nov. 1st: 7600 (+100%)

"Calgary Metro" Median price today: $435,000
Predicted "Calgary Metro" Median price on Nov. 1st, 2007: $390,000 (-10%)

The Oracle has spoken.

[metallicat]

This is you predicting a drop on average of 45,000? Or are you getting this from somewhere? I bet you're wrong on this one.

[McG]

Originally Posted by OracleOfCalgary

Your wish will come true. Here is the future:

"Calgary Metro" listings as of today:" 3800
Predicted "Calgary Metro" listings on Nov. 1st: 7600 (+100%)

"Calgary Metro" Median price today: $435,000
Predicted "Calgary Metro" Median price on Nov. 1st, 2007: $390,000 (-10%)

The Oracle has spoken.

Not to be difficult...but where is this info from? are you saying that house prices will come down an annualized rate of only 24% although the supply doubles in 5 months? presumably, there is an exodus of 16,000 or so people as well?

on a related guess...got any lotto numbers for us?

[automaton 3]

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise the prime rate by .25% next month - not great news for new buyers and those with floating rate financing.

There is also some talk about an additional .25% hike later this year (September).

[McG]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to raise the prime rate by .25% next month - not great news for new buyers and those with floating rate financing.

There is also some talk about an additional .25% hike later this year (September).

The bank of canada has to be very careful...it makes exports very expensive with the continued rise of the C$ versus the USD.

I am not sure where you got your info, but what i read this morning suggests that the BoC will hold the line on rates until perhaps the fall, with another possible increase in 2008.


RBC expects the Bank of Canada will hold the policy rate steady in 2007. Longer-term rates will rise in the second half of the year in line with U.S. Treasury yields, with rate hikes likely in 2008.
In the U.S., rising core inflation will keep the U.S. Federal Reserve from significantly easing interest rates this year. Stronger growth in 2008 will see the Fed shift into rate hike mode with a 50 basis-point increase expected in the second half of the year. A complete copy of the forecast is available as of 8 a.m. E.D.T., at www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/fcst.pdf.

However, if there is an election planned i wouldn't expect rates to increase.

i cannot see the BoC trying to control inflation using monetary policy like this.

[automaton 3]

^^^^Your link says March 2007 - the outlook has changed since the Bank's latest update last week.

http://money.canoe.ca/News/Economy/2...125922-cp.html

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...B4w&refer=home

``The Bank is sending a point-blank warning,'' about raising interest rates, said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. He predicts two quarter-point moves at the next meetings, in July and September.
Record prices for energy and metals exports have driven home prices up, left companies struggling to meet demand, and sent the currency soaring. Governor David Dodge has kept rates unchanged for the longest stretch since 1973 because the dollar's strength has hurt factory exports. Still, inflation and economic growth have risen faster than policy makers estimated in their April forecast.
Eleven of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News today predict the bank will raise rates at its next meeting, compared with a survey last week in which two of 19 forecast a July increase.

[McG]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

^^^^Your link says March 2007 - the outlook has changed since the Bank's latest update last week.

http://money.canoe.ca/News/Economy/2...125922-cp.html

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNew...hub=TopStories

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...B4w&refer=home

``The Bank is sending a point-blank warning,'' about raising interest rates, said Doug Porter, an economist with BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. He predicts two quarter-point moves at the next meetings, in July and September.
Record prices for energy and metals exports have driven home prices up, left companies struggling to meet demand, and sent the currency soaring. Governor David Dodge has kept rates unchanged for the longest stretch since 1973 because the dollar's strength has hurt factory exports. Still, inflation and economic growth have risen faster than policy makers estimated in their April forecast.
Eleven of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News today predict the bank will raise rates at its next meeting, compared with a survey last week in which two of 19 forecast a July increase.

fair dues to you. no disagreeing. what i'm choked about was that i got that from a brand new link! "brand new press release" my buttocks.

apologies for not having up to date info. but i'm choked at the site.