Calgary Real Estate Bubble?

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by White Doors

I checked, you are correct in that Canada' GDP/debt ratio is now lower, but check this:


http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/debtGDP.htm

The GDp of the USA is outpacing the growth of debt. Economists know this and that is why there is not a panic on the cost of war.

and by the way, the Debt/GDp ratio has improved markedly since Clinton left.

WOW! That has to be one of the worst come backs EVER! Using Ireland's numbers eh? Mighty tricky!!!!

Reality is a bitch but at least you will always have Ireland to refer back to!

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

And if you look here, you see as of May '06, Canada's Debt v GDP is estimated to be 68.2%, the US is 64.7%

However, if you use NET International Debt vs GDP, the US is 47.2%, Canada is 21.7%. (Australia is -0.9%, Norway is -141% - The world owes Norway a lot of money!)

Interesting stats.

Norway smartly turned oil capital (that is being exhausted) into financial capital (That could last forever).

Alberta gave away Ralph bucks and rode the gravey train for a generation and then had nothing.

Norway = Smart
Albertans = Time will tell...


Claeren.

[White Doors]

Originally Posted by Claeren

WOW! That has to be one of the worst come backs EVER! Using Ireland's numbers eh? Mighty tricky!!!!

Reality is a bitch but at least you will always have Ireland to refer back to!

whoops. well I'm human.

I'll have another look.

[White Doors]

Here's a neat one:

http://www.optimist123.com/optimist/...st_debt_c.html

It's a debt and GDP clock. current debt / gdp ratio is 65.5%

Now I'll check for Canada's which I know has been going down steadily for quite some time now due to a stagnant net debt, but an increasing GDP.

Though still high by historical and international standards, Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen from 69% in 1995/1996 to 46% in 2001/02

Wow - quite a difference.

Anyways, my oroginal point was the debt by itself is not the enemy, it is debt/gdp raito that is the key indicator.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Claeren

Norway smartly turned oil capital (that is being exhausted) into financial capital (That could last forever).

Alberta gave away Ralph bucks and rode the gravey train for a generation and then had nothing.

Norway = Smart
Albertans = Time will tell...


Claeren.

Alberta spent a small part of one year's surplus. That's hardly a generation of spending.

There's also another small detail, Alberta is not a country, it's a province that has to manipulate thru loopholes not to lose a bigger part of their recent oil riches to the feds.

You also forgot to mention that Alberta paid off all of their debt years ahead of schedule.

[V]

This demand on the lower end houses right now is absolutely killing me. For example, I looked at a foreclosure a couple weeks ago. It was a fairly large 4 level split in Whitehorn listed at 250K. The house was beat to ****, needed a completely new kitchen, new lighting new floors, new paint, some wall repairs, new appliances, the works. In pristine condition that house probably would have sold for somewhere between 320K-350K. I put in an offer at 275K, 25K over list, and thought it could get me the house. This house, in its beat up condition, sold for 315K. 65K over list price!

I just put in an offer for a house in Martindale that's listed at 220K. I offered 235, and I think that after about 10K in renovations I could probably sell it for 275K-ish. It's in pretty bad shape right now. Well, my realtor tells me that I should probably expect the house to go for about 250K. If that's the case I'm going to have to look at a different location, maybe Edmonton, where the demand isn't quite so rabid. This is insane right now.

[azzarish]

Originally Posted by Claeren

Do you know how many people live (or take residence) in England/London? There are more filthy rich people in England then there are people in Calgary (and likely Alberta). Real Estate in a market like that is considered a great place to hide/place assets. There is just no way you can compare Calgary to England.

Claeren.

I wasn't comparing Calgary to England, I was comparing the way house prices are rising. And it's all relative since I bet the percentage of filthy rich people is around the same in Calgary than in England. Doesn't matter how many people live in England.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Dominicwasalreadytaken

If that's the case I'm going to have to look at a different location, maybe Edmonton, where the demand isn't quite so rabid. This is insane right now.

Edmonton is also getting out of control - our realtor told us lots of "spillover" from Fort Mac - essentially lots of workers are willing to take the 4 hour bus ride "commute" for more affordable housing.

We just sold our house in Edmonton for 58% more than we paid for it 2 years ago. There was a bidding war between 6 people and it sold for way over list, which we thought was a fair price.

The wife and I are moving back home to Lethbridge, where we'll take slight pay cuts but will have a very good standard of living.

I could have taken a position in Calgary for significantly more money, but once we factored in the cost of living (predominantly the crazy housing market) our standard of living would have probably dropped from where it is now. Not much incentive there, especially seeing we would have been facing long commutes to work and longer working hours.

[V]

Not to compare who's dad can beat up who's, but I live in the end of town that doesn't appreciate as quickly as the rest of the city (I have no numbers for this, I just assume this is the case) and my house worth has risen approximately 75% over the last 18 months. It's just plain old stupid. At least it gives me the ability to borrow a shwack load of money to invest. Hopefully those investments go half as well as my house.

[nfotiu]

More talk of a Calgary (Western Canada) bubble.

http://money.canoe.ca/PersonalFinanc...606775-cp.html

[MacDougalbry]

While we're at it, they were talking about Calgary on the big US Housing Bubble Blog yesterday:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=773

Some of the comments are funny.