Bin Laden offers truce.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

On a quick scan I didn't see this posted....its the complete transcript of Osama's letter to the Amercian/Western public.

On a stictly strategic note, Osama has been suggesting for a looong time that he is simply going to get the Amercians to spend themselves into defeat. Is this a sound strategy? I think it is likely to succeed and if it does, what does that mean for us?
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Petite Cam

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Did you see the "Control Room" documentary Cow?

No. Haven't seen it.

It seems absurd on the surface to consider Al-Jazeera helpful or even pragmatic in this regard . . . . but there are analysts in the West who feel this station and a few others will be the eventual undoing of Muslim single party dictatorships in the Middle East.

In the early going of the Aghanistan and Iraq conflicts, Al-Jazeera was very definitely cheerleading one side but that has certainly and subtly changed in the last couple of years.

"Freedom fighters" have become "insurgents" and "terrorists" as the electoral processes in Iraq and Afghanistan have taken hold.

Viewers of Al-Jazeera have certainly been learning the joy of the "purple finger" of democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq . . . . the images speak for themselves.

A few years ago, this station would have told viewers than Muslims had no history of democracy and wouldn't understand it, echoing the line put out by the left in western countries. That has also changed.

On al-Jazeera's english language front page today, http://english.aljazeera.net/HomePage you will see "Interviews" with headlines: "A lot more should have been done ... by the Arab world ... to help Palestinian development" and "We believe that a strong opposition is an asset, not a liability, since absolute power corrupts" and lower down: "Palestinians voice hope for change after elections."

Assuming the Arabic version is roughly the same, that's certainly a different tone - a different level of maturity - being seen in the Muslim world - from their own voices - than we had seen earlier.

It's good.

Cowperson

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

On a quick scan I didn't see this posted....its the complete transcript of Osama's letter to the Amercian/Western public.

On a stictly strategic note, Osama has been suggesting for a looong time that he is simply going to get the Amercians to spend themselves into defeat. Is this a sound strategy? I think it is likely to succeed and if it does, what does that mean for us?

Well, I'm not going to get drawn into monumental, days-long, repetitive Iraq threads but . . . . . in answer to your point:

I would guess that in order to force America into "spending themselves into defeat," Osama has to keep America in Iraq. Correct? With congressional elections coming up and Republicans on the ropes, its certainly predictable you'll be seeing a sizeable reduction in USA force levels in Iraq by November, perhaps one-third.

In order to reverse that trend and keep America overexposed in Iraq, Osama presumeably has to continue the mayhem. Correct?

In order to continue the mayhem, he has to indiscriminately kill the population so that it doesn't settle into a more peaceful political process, preferably inciting a civil war. Correct?

In the last election, we saw Sunni insurgent fighters guarding polling stations from Al-Queda attacks, a pretty strange sight and underlying the Sunni insurgency is separating from the goals of al-Queda.

The New York Times also had a lengthy treatise last week detailing Sunni insurgents now starting to hunt down and kill Al-Queda fighters in retaliation for indiscriminate slaughter of civilians within the Sunni community.

Osama needs America to stay in Iraq in a big way if your theory is to hold up and come to fruition. The trend is now rolling the opposite way.

Osama needs a civil war. That's probably not going to happen either as there's no incentive for the Shia, now in control of the mechanisms of government, to get sucked into one and the Sunni are starting to join the political process in spite of death threats from Al-Queda.

Iraq has been profoundly costly in pure dollars to America and there's more treasure yet to spend. Right now though, I'd say people are more upset about American boys dying there than they are about the dinner bill.

Cowperson

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Really?

Then holy smokes he is a whole lot dumber than I thought.

What did he think was going to happen? A giant rally at the UN releasing white doves?

It was, and is, inevitable.

hell even clinton started bombing the crap out of stuff after the first WTC attack.

From all apperances, as found in Osama's writings and his original declaraction of war, he thought America was a clawless, toothless, tiger.

Clinton fired a few missiles at the Afghan camp, but Osama fully expected America to shrink away in terror at the first sign of blood on American troops EXACTLY because of Clinton and 1993 in Somalia when 18 soldiers died in the Black Hawk Down incident and Clinton pulled the troops IMMEDIATELY. He wrote about this on many occasions, how a few Muslim tribesman living in huts destroyed the mighty American Army.

His life experiences are also mainly from the Jihad against the USSR in Afghanistan which again, proved to his twisted mind that his Muslim forces defeated the "most powerful military nation in the world" - in his words, he believed the Soviets to be more powerful than the Americans.

That's pretty compelling evidence to expect America to shirk away. Now we have closer to 3000 casualties from the Afghani/Iraq wars and the US is still going strong and attacking them wherever they go, even in different countries, and Osama has no idea what the hell happened because he never expected this. He was too stupid to realize that if you attack Americans on their own soil and give them something to rally on, you're dead meat, so he's desperately trying to appeal to Liberal America (all comments about opinion being against Bush and trying to get the public of America to get on his side and push Government to pull out due to public pressure just like what happened in 1993).

From his writings, he fully expected that America would pull out of Afghanistan at the first casuality just like in Somalia, and that there would be divine intervention. He also tries to sound like he's coming from a position of power and control, claiming the attacks on London were part of the grand scheme and evidence of further preparations, but all evidence suggests that the London bombings were carried out independant of any actual Al Queda control, that it was a bunch of Muslim students who suddenly became very religious and decided to take matters into their own hands.

"We know that the majority of your people want this war to end and opinion polls show the Americans do not want to fight the Muslims on Muslim land, nor do they want Muslims to fight them on their [US] land."

The majority of Americans want this war to end, but he's seriously deluded if he thinks that Americans wouldn't want to fight back on their own soil.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

This is kind of interesting....mods I hope this is short enough not to freak anyone out...


Pentagon correspondent David Martin shares with PE his thoughts on a timely meeting with a top intelligence official ? and what it says about the efforts to find Osama bin Laden:

?On Thursday afternoon, I met with 'a senior intelligence official' directly involved in the intelligence used to track down terrorists. It was a long-scheduled meeting, but the timing was good, since I would have a chance to ask him about the attempt to kill Ayman al Zawahiri and a new Osama bin Laden tape which had been aired just that morning. He had been out of the office all morning and did not know about the bin Laden tape, and before I could ask him about it he started telling me that it had been so long since there?d been so much as a peep from bin Laden that he was becoming increasingly convinced the leader of al Qaida was dead. I interrupted to tell him about the new tape and that ended the discussion about whether bin Laden was dead.

Only afterwards did the significance of what he was saying strike me. This is a person who sees all the intelligence on bin Laden, and he was telling me that for over a year ? bin Laden?s last tape appeared in December 2004 ? there has not been a shred of evidence to indicate he is even alive, much less where he might be hiding. In other words, the vast $40 billion a year intelligence apparatus of the United States has not turned up a single credible report about bin Laden in over a year ? despite an offer of a $25 million reward for information leading to his death or capture. During that year, the U.S. has captured and interrogated al Qaida?s number three man and tracked the number two man, Zawahiri, with enough precision to launch an air strike. But nothing on the number one man ? until an audio tape is broadcast by an Arab satellite network.?
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[ZOSO]

He could be pulling a Saddam Hussein move and trying to call a truce because he is getting closed in on. When the Americans found Hussein didn't he say "i'm ready to negotiate now"?
Anyways, assuming Osama is still in Afghanistan he could be feeling the heat.