2026 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[GirlySports]

Clement would be the ultimate sell high piece in a big trade, which would be sad but that is strictly business.

It depends how you view team chemistry.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

A dream off season would be trade for Skubal, sign Bieber, sign Bo and move him to 2B

1. Springer DH (R)
2. Barger RF (L)
3. Vladdy 1B (R)
4. Bo 2B (R)
5. Varsho CF (L)
6. Kirk C (R)
7. Santander LF (S)
8. Clement 3B (R)
9. Giminez SS (L)

Bench - Heineman C (S), Lukes OF (L), Straw OF (R), Schneider UT (R)

SP1 - Skubal
SP2 - Bieber
SP3 - Gausman
SP4 - Yesavage
SP5 - Berrios

CL - Hoffman
SU - Garcia
SU - Varland

Rest of the BP arms to build with - Fluharty, Little, Lauer, Rodriguez, Fisher, Nance, Sandlin, Bruihl, Burr, etc

Deep batting line up, solid bench, the D is stellar except for Santander in LF but the bench has solid defensive replacements.

Rotation could be godly.

Bullpen solid enough for now.

Probably $320 million for that though.

Agree that would be a dream scenario, I think you could do it for a bit less than $320 as well.

Sportrac has the 2026 payroll at $236 MM (with their arb estimates). Maybe they're off a bit (Clement's playoffs might get him an extra million or two) but I think it's close. That includes Bieber at $16. I think $25 keeps him, which gets you to $245.

Bo is probably $25 × 8 or so, which puts you at $270, and $40 for Skubal (his reported asking price) gets you to $310.

I'd try and trade Straw - I think with his performance this year and only 1 guaranteed year someone would take him to be their starting CF. Replacing him with Loperfido saves $6MM.

That gets you down to $304, which is important for CBT reasons as that's the threshhold for the 60% tax surcharge. I can't see them wanting to pay that level of cbt even with all that playoff revenue. I think it's fairly likely they'll want to stay below $288 (which puts the added surcharge at 12.5% instead of 40%), which basically means you can only have 2 of Bieber, Bo, or Skubal from the list of big signings above.

[flamingred89]

Man. If only they didn't panic sign Santander last off season. That 20 million really helps clear things up a bit. Oh well.

I would lean more towards Bo staying than not. The franchise has so much positive momentum in its favour right now. It would be such a blow to those good vibes to lose a cornerstone player over a few bucks.

The pitching is where I'm most curious. They're going to have some obvious holes to fill with Bieber all but certain to opt out. Hopefully they can land a big fish to fill a gap and then maybe someone internally can step up.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by flamingred89

Man. If only they didn't panic sign Santander last off season. That 20 million really helps clear things up a bit. Oh well.

I would lean more towards Bo staying than not. The franchise has so much positive momentum in its favour right now. It would be such a blow to those good vibes to lose a cornerstone player over a few bucks.

The pitching is where I'm most curious. They're going to have some obvious holes to fill with Bieber all but certain to opt out. Hopefully they can land a big fish to fill a gap and then maybe someone internally can step up.

IF Santander can get back to 3/4 of what he was in Baltimore the last 3 seasons that is 35HR we could count on. Not bad for 20M

[Voodooman]

I'm (desperately) trying to not make this sound like sour grapes, but I sure hope to see a new face in the 3B coaches box next season. Carlos Febles was in the middle of a lot of high impact plays in the series, and very few of them went the Jays way. You can play what if to the moon and back, but it's hard not to look back on some of those plays and wonder. If IKF is a foot further off the bag at 3rd....

And also, again, from the perspective of a casual baseball fan, did Vladdy and Ernie get jobbed on the Gold Glove? I thought Ernie was a shoo-in at that utility spoe.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

I'm (desperately) trying to not make this sound like sour grapes, but I sure hope to see a new face in the 3B coaches box next season. Carlos Febles was in the middle of a lot of high impact plays in the series, and very few of them went the Jays way. You can play what if to the moon and back, but it's hard not to look back on some of those plays and wonder. If IKF is a foot further off the bag at 3rd....

And also, again, from the perspective of a casual baseball fan, did Vladdy and Ernie get jobbed on the Gold Glove? I thought Ernie was a shoo-in at that utility spoe.

I think Clement got screwed more than Vladdy. I suspect being a legit option at 2 places hurt him with vote splitting - some folks voted him at 3B and some at utility, and he ended up with neither.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Voodooman

I'm (desperately) trying to not make this sound like sour grapes, but I sure hope to see a new face in the 3B coaches box next season. Carlos Febles was in the middle of a lot of high impact plays in the series, and very few of them went the Jays way. You can play what if to the moon and back, but it's hard not to look back on some of those plays and wonder. If IKF is a foot further off the bag at 3rd....

And also, again, from the perspective of a casual baseball fan, did Vladdy and Ernie get jobbed on the Gold Glove? I thought Ernie was a shoo-in at that utility spoe.

It's from the manager too, too timid. I get that the previous game ended with a guy getting doubled off but in this case you have a left handed hitter who always pulls, how is IKF going to get doubled off 3rd? I would have liked to see Varsho fake a bunt or even bunt, he's one of the best bunters on the team, a safety or even suicide squeeze. The game is tied, you can take chances. If they don't work you go to extras.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It's from the manager too, too timid. I get that the previous game ended with a guy getting doubled off but in this case you have a left handed hitter who always pulls, how is IKF going to get doubled off 3rd? I would have liked to see Varsho fake a bunt or even bunt, he's one of the best bunters on the team, a safety or even suicide squeeze. The game is tied, you can take chances. If they don't work you go to extras.

That goes both ways though.

He has too big of a lead, and a ball is hit hard to RF on a line drive. If he's on the bag maybe he can tag up and make it home, but if he's too far off the bag he probably can't.

They are playing for a ball hit into the outfield on that play, not a soft infield single, that's why he's closer to the bag to be able to successfully tag.

[SuperMatt18]

To me the real question I have for this game is Lauer, Dominguez, and Fluharty being left in the pen and giving Yesavage and Hoffman more than 1 inning each.

That 8th inning should have been somebody else to face Muncy IMO.

Scherzer got you through 4. Varland got you through the 5th. Bassit got you the 6th. Yesavage got you through the 7th and I think you leave him in for Betts.

But then Lauer or Fluharty should have come in to face Muncy who has much better power and BA numbers vs RH than he does vs LH.

Then you had Hoffman earmarked for 9 for sure.

Especially Lauer who had not given up a run in his last 8.1 IP in the playoffs and hadn't been used since the 18 inning game on Monday, he was fully rested. Fluharty I kind of get since he was used a lot vs the Dodgers.

But why was Lauer not leveraged at all in game 6 or 7 with a chance to win the world series. He came in with a pretty clean inning to win game 1. They used him in that spot to face Muncy in Game 3 too - he came after Fisher got Smith and got Muncy and Teoscar out. And struck Muncy out in the 16th too.

Maybe they were worried because those guys had seen Lauer 3 times in that game, but they had seen Yesavage a lot over the series too.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To me the real question I have for this game is Lauer, Dominguez, and Fluharty being left in the pen and giving Yesavage and Hoffman more than 1 inning each.

That 8th inning should have been somebody else to face Muncy IMO.

Scherzer got you through 4. Varland got you through the 5th. Bassit got you the 6th. Yesavage got you through the 7th and I think you leave him in for Betts.

But then Lauer or Fluharty should have come in to face Muncy who has much better power and BA numbers vs RH than he does vs LH.

Then you had Hoffman earmarked for 9 for sure.

Especially Lauer who had not given up a run in his last 8.1 IP in the playoffs and hadn't been used since the 18 inning game on Monday, he was fully rested. Fluharty I kind of get since he was used a lot vs the Dodgers.

But why was Lauer not leveraged at all in game 6 or 7 with a chance to win the world series. He came in with a pretty clean inning to win game 1. They used him in that spot to face Muncy in Game 3 too - he came after Fisher got Smith and got Muncy and Teoscar out. And struck Muncy out in the 16th too.

Maybe they were worried because those guys had seen Lauer 3 times in that game, but they had seen Yesavage a lot over the series too.

Yesavage has nasty splits against lefties. The Jays didn’t have a better option in their pen for that matchup IMO.

I actually can’t fault any of their decisions in game 7. The players just couldn’t push through that extra inch in like 8 different spots that wins them a World Series.

Historically bad luck and a couple bad pitches cost the Jays the game.

[Blaster86]

Lots of people with their head in the clouds here.


This team has almost no chance at any UFAs, is losing one of their best players, needs every single bit player have a repeat career year and needs to almost completely rebuild its rotation all to even attempt to make the play-offs again.

This was their shot and they didn't get there. It was close. They would have been full value for this season if they had done it. Not sure where they go from here, but next season is going to be a long one. Hell this off-season will feel agonizing.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah in the end it was bad luck that cost the Jays the game - any other night those runs score in the 9th and all of these discussions are irrelevant.

Just felt like they were asking a lot of Yesavage on short rest, and I feel like they under utilized Lauer in the playoffs in general.

[EN FUEGO]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Lots of people with their head in the clouds here.


This team has almost no chance at any UFAs, is losing one of their best players, needs every single bit player have a repeat career year and needs to almost completely rebuild its rotation all to even attempt to make the play-offs again.

This was their shot and they didn't get there. It was close. They would have been full value for this season if they had done it. Not sure where they go from here, but next season is going to be a long one. Hell this off-season will feel agonizing.

Yes, take it from the guy who didn't think they could hang on to the division past Labor Day....no chance!

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by EN FUEGO

Yes, take it from the guy who didn't think they could hang on to the division past Labor Day....no chance!

They never swept the Rays.

A lot of that was hyperbolic joking. This off-season is not hyperbolic. This team had everything go right, and that's just not going to happen again. No team is that lucky. They'll need to replace a lot of it with sure things and UFAs just do not usually want to come here. Factor in having to replace Bo too and it's just not a recipe for repeating what they did last year.


They might be able to swing a trade, but I think we need to come to terms with the fact that the Jays just don't have a lot that teams want. We've gone through that for the last few years now.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

They never swept the Rays.

A lot of that was hyperbolic joking. This off-season is not hyperbolic. This team had everything go right, and that's just not going to happen again. No team is that lucky. They'll need to replace a lot of it with sure things and UFAs just do not usually want to come here. Factor in having to replace Bo too and it's just not a recipe for repeating what they did last year.


They might be able to swing a trade, but I think we need to come to terms with the fact that the Jays just don't have a lot that teams want. We've gone through that for the last few years now.

I partially agree but maybe not as dire as you are.

In terms of the offense:

Vlad, Kirk, and Varsho should have repeatable performance IMO. Gimenez might actually have room for improvement with the bat.

Springer is probably a question mark but seems to have figured out his swing a bit but he will be down a little bit forf sure.

Santander should have a bounce back - that's potentially a big "acquisition" that offsets what you lose from Springer.

The question marks are if Clement and Barger can repeat their performance, and if they re-sign Bo.

Personally I like Clement and Barger, and think with Popkins they will be able to repeat this approach at the plate.

If they re-sign Bo they should be able to go:

Springer - DH
Vlad - 1B
Bo - 2B
Santander - LF
Kirk - C
Varsho - CF
Barger - RF
Clement - 3B
Gimenez - SS

That's a good starting lineup with Lukes, Straw, Schneider, Heineman, Loperfido being your bench, I could see them re-signing IKF too.

Then the starting pitching is the question mark:

Gausman
Yesavage
Berrios
Lauer

What do they do with Scherzer, Bieber, and Bassit is the question. Can they add a top of the rotation starter. Does Francis bounce back?

The bullpen should actually be in better shape than this year IMO and they likely try to add in the offseason. But Hoffman, Varland, Sandlin, Garcia, Little, Fisher, Fluharty is a decent start.

Re-sign Bichette, and add a top of the rotation arm and they are in fine shape to contend in the division for sure. But nothing is guaranteed in baseball which makes this hurt a lot more because this likely was their best shot.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

They never swept the Rays.

A lot of that was hyperbolic joking. This off-season is not hyperbolic. This team had everything go right, and that's just not going to happen again. No team is that lucky. They'll need to replace a lot of it with sure things and UFAs just do not usually want to come here. Factor in having to replace Bo too and it's just not a recipe for repeating what they did last year.


They might be able to swing a trade, but I think we need to come to terms with the fact that the Jays just don't have a lot that teams want. We've gone through that for the last few years now.

Lots did go right this year for sure, but a lot went wrong too.

-Bowden Francis becoming unusable after putting up a 6.05 ERA in 64 innings, which did lead to the blooming of Eric Lauer.

-Chad Green imploding, 5.56 ERA over 43 innings and leaving a gaping hole in an already razor thin bullpen

-Bullpen being razor thin due to Swanson (DFA), Garcia (out for season), and Sandlin (out for season) being guys we expected to rely on not being options anymore.

-Our biggest FA signing being out almost all year (Santander)

-Our next biggest FA signing (Scherzer) mostly unable to contribute during the regular season

-Our next biggest FA signing (Hoffman) being prone to homeruns all year (and again in the biggest moment. though, overall great in playoffs)

-Berrios taking a step back

-Varsho, one of our most valuable bats this year missed over half the season from various IL stints

-Bichette knee sprain causing him to miss 6 crucial weeks

-Gimenez was a big trade acquisition and had by far his worst season over his past 4.


I'm sure there were others but these are just the most obvious. A ton of things went right for sure but its not like we were coasting on luck and good fortune.

[Blaster86]

Outside of the injuries, nothing just pointed out was that unexpected or shocking. In fact there's a reason everyone expected the team to be a wild card team if they were lucky going into the year.


Right now the Jays have exactly one pitcher currently lined up in their rotation that doesn't have question marks at best and obvious major flaws at worst. Gausman. End of list.


Yesavage is a great story, but progress isn't linear and we just went through this with Manoah. Now I don't think Yesavage is about to bust out like Manoah, but the jump to the majors is hard and it may not be smooth sailing going into his first full MLB season. Lauer was found money, but much like the rest of the roster and Francis the year before him can he sustain it for two years or more? Berrios is done. Relying on a bullpen is scary because even if they were great, they are always so volatile year to year. A bullpen that was nails the year before can become one of the worst a year later. It could actually be a strength, but I don't know if that's enough to cover all the other issues they will have and if they don't sort out the SP, it will be just as over worked as it was at the start of this year.

[EN FUEGO]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

They'll need to replace a lot of it with sure things and UFAs just do not usually want to come here.

I think this run did a whole lot to change/elevate the perception of the organization down here in the US. The culture of the team, the ballpark, the city....FOX and MLB Network praised them all heavily for weeks on end. We've also signed plenty of decent/great UFAs over the years. If we had gotten Ohtani, we would not have Vladdy under contract right now. I think it's going to be a fun 3+ years to be a Jays fan, but you can think whatever you want.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

They never swept the Rays.

A lot of that was hyperbolic joking. This off-season is not hyperbolic. This team had everything go right, and that's just not going to happen again. No team is that lucky. They'll need to replace a lot of it with sure things and UFAs just do not usually want to come here. Factor in having to replace Bo too and it's just not a recipe for repeating what they did last year.


They might be able to swing a trade, but I think we need to come to terms with the fact that the Jays just don't have a lot that teams want. We've gone through that for the last few years now.

The Jays went 13-16 to start the year, but went 81-52 from there on out (60.9 win %). Sure, maybe their playoff run involved a lot of luck, but was their season also a big fluke? I don't know. This might be a very good roster. And they didn't even have Bichette in the playoffs until the WS.

[browna]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

The Jays went 13-16 to start the year, but went 81-52 from there on out (60.9 win %). Sure, maybe their playoff run involved a lot of luck, but was their season also a big fluke? I don't know. This might be a very good roster. And they didn't even have Bichette in the playoffs until the WS.

A lot did go right. You need skill, pitching, as well as luck and intangibles to get in the playoffs and certainly to succeed and that is what they embraced and did.

But everything still has to line up to have it all work out.

One solitary less win in the regular season and I don’t think they get into the WS at all, nevermind game 7, maybe not even past the Yankees in the DS, because they would’ve had to play the WC round and would’ve used Gausman Yesaveage and maybe Beiber against Boston. Leaving Scherzer for Game 1 vs the Yanks if they get through and that series and anything past that, plays out differently than it did.

That regular season loss could’ve come in May when they came back from being 6-0 to Boston or vs Tampa in the last series when Varsho hits a late HR to sink Tampa.

So there’s a lot of circumstance and timing and pure luck to get into the playoffs, to get through 2 rounds and to get to a Game 7 WS. And it doesn’t stop there.
What if Rojas stumbled a second time, or Hernandez reaches his arm up and accidently hits Pages in the face and drops the ball? The Jays win it all.

The Jays (as any team who goes that far and wins or finishes second) have to have all or most of those breaks go their way in season, and the critical playoff tipping points, go mostly their way too.

It just seems (as Flames in 2004) too monumental a task to have to once again have all or most of those outcomes repeat next year over 162 regular season games and 18+ playoffs to get anywhere near the exact same opportunity again when they were inches away multiple times from winning it all 48h ago now.