[News] The Athletic releases list of worst contracts (we’re #1!)

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The thing is Huberdeau and his contract aren't hurting the flames given that they're a botton 3 spending team, and he's providing valuable leadership for a young group.

A guy like Nurse and his unjustified AAV (even at the time it was signed) is absolutely hurting his team on multiple fronts (play and albatross cap hit).

But sure, let's put the Conn Smyth winner in there over him.

[dissentowner]

I don't know why anyone would get upset about this. Dom's models are absolute garbage.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I don't know why anyone would get upset about this. Dom's models are absolute garbage.

First off-season?

Hockey writers gotta write, mortgages to pay and kids to feed and all that.

This is literally an opinion piece. Make the jokes, take the laughs and poke all the fun and roll with it.

[cam_calderon]

Originally Posted by Locke

First off-season?

Hockey writers gotta write, mortgages to pay and kids to feed and all that.

This is literally an opinion piece. Make the jokes, take the laughs and poke all the fun and roll with it.

It's not opinion at all, it's based on the writer's statistical model.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by cam_calderon

It's not opinion at all, it's based on the writer's statistical model.

And the statistical model is built on the programmer's opinion of what is valuable in an NHL player, and how different abilities should be measured, and how they should be weighted. Very little about these models is actually objective, apart from the raw statistics used as input.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And the statistical model is built on the programmer's opinion of what is valuable in an NHL player, and how different abilities should be measured, and how they should be weighted. Very little about these models is actually objective, apart from the raw statistics used as input.

So without looking at the article (paywall), and based in the inclusion of someone like Bennett, I’d guess the inputs are based on points and maybe some other on ice stats versus dollars. Sam’s on there because he’s a mid-range regular season point getter being paid like a first line winger.

It must be true that impact on the team has no bearing because Huberdeau’s contract has never prevented the Flames from doing anything. However, if they eliminated contracts that are LTIR protected from impacting the team, or where the guy is making money but not contributing at all because he’s in the minors, that is an inconsistency. Landeskog made a big salary and didn’t contribute at all in terms of points or any other stats. Of course, that made zero difference because he was LTIR all year. But by the same token, how does Huberdeau’s contract make a difference? It simply doesn’t.

[Bingo]

A lot of over reacting in this topic.

His model sees players producing under value on term as a bad contract. The longer the term and higher the money the bigger the issue.

Nurse has only 5 years left.
Huberdeau has 7.
Bennett has 8 but at a lower cap hit than Huberdeau.

Personally I would think that a formula like % under perform * value of contract * term left is a pretty good place to start in rating bad contracts.

Lets leave the "all media are Oiler fans!" button alone once in a while.

[Macho0978]

I'd like to see 2 lists

1. worst cap hit which factors in this year only
2. worst contract factoring in the length of the contract.

Nurse should be on this list over Bennett, but maybe they put Bennett on as they feel he won't age well, and this contract will be awful in let's say 5 years. Nurse only has 5 years left and maybe the Oilers can dump that contract after the next 3 years as Nurse tends to stay healthy and the cap is going up. Some retained salary, maybe they can move it soon.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

A lot of over reacting in this topic.

His model sees players producing under value on term as a bad contract. The longer the term and higher the money the bigger the issue.

Nurse has only 5 years left.
Huberdeau has 7.
Bennett has 8 but at a lower cap hit than Huberdeau.

Personally I would think that a formula like % under perform * value of contract * term left is a pretty good place to start in rating bad contracts.

Lets leave the "all media are Oiler fans!" button alone once in a while.

I for one wasn’t even thinking about the Oilers and didn’t mentioned Nurse. I think “performance” is a flawed stat the way it’s used here. I’d bet Bennett’s post season performance isn’t included. And how is defensive play measured?

[Ped]

Dom comes right out and says Bennett is on the list because of his regular season performance, but that the Panthers don't care because he brings it in the playoffs.

[Rejean31]

Originally Posted by cam_calderon

It's not opinion at all, it's based on the writer's statistical model.

His statistical model is straight up garbage!!

[cam_calderon]

Originally Posted by Ped

Dom comes right out and says Bennett is on the list because of his regular season performance, but that the Panthers don't care because he brings it in the playoffs.

I think that's a pretty common sentiment, his regular season totals have never been anything to write home about, even in the Cup years.

[Vinny01]

It sucks that the main piece of the Tkachuk trade ended up being a huge anchor on the team and his historic drop off was one of the several factors that lead to this team missing the playoffs in 3 straight years. End of the day it is what it is and it could be worse. When the Flames decided to take the Florida deal they seemingly had to re-sign the guys they just got. Huberdeau tied for points with Johnny so why would he take a penny less than what the Flames offered Gaudreau?

It really sucks to see the drop off Huby has made no excuses and has continued to try and change his game. He is not a useless player he is just no where near a superstar and is paid double what he is worth. He is a likable guy who is easy to root for. That contract is not an issue today but hopefully will be over the next 6 years as this team hopes to compete in that timeframe.

Also while it is impossible for Florida to ever lose the Tkachuk trade after 3 SCF and 2 Cups but there is still a good chance the Flames salvage things depending on how Weegar’s legacy ends and what Potter turns into.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

My hot take is that Huberdeau's production will bounce back for 2 or 3 years, then come back down a bit. He's reinvented his game a bunch in a good way. I don't think he'll be back up to 100+, but he'll put get in the 75 to 85 range for a bit.

He went from 52 to 62 points based largely on a 18.3 shooting percentage.

To expect another jump of between 13-23 points seems pretty unrealistic.

Especially since the Flames aren't covered with a bunch of offensively gifted players.

If a Marner had joined the team, maybe that would be possible.

But Huberdeau, his most offensively gifted linemate Kadri will be 35 when the season starts.

If they can keep up their existing production I'd be pretty happy.

Huberdeau did re-invent his game but points are often a reflection of a players linemates as well. 75 points is hard when you aren't playing on a gifted scoring line.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He went from 52 to 62 points based largely on a 18.3 shooting percentage.

To expect another jump of between 13-23 points seems pretty unrealistic.

Especially since the Flames aren't covered with a bunch of offensively gifted players.

If a Marner had joined the team, maybe that would be possible.

But Huberdeau, his most offensively gifted linemate Kadri will be 35 when the season starts.

If they can keep up their existing production I'd be pretty happy.

Huberdeau did re-invent his game but points are often a reflection of a players linemates as well. 75 points is hard when you aren't playing on a gifted scoring line.

Okay, then it's my super hot take. I understand age, linemates, all of that. I just see him bouncing back to the 75-85 range which will bump him off this list.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He went from 52 to 62 points based largely on a 18.3 shooting percentage.

To expect another jump of between 13-23 points seems pretty unrealistic.

Especially since the Flames aren't covered with a bunch of offensively gifted players.

If a Marner had joined the team, maybe that would be possible.

But Huberdeau, his most offensively gifted linemate Kadri will be 35 when the season starts.

If they can keep up their existing production I'd be pretty happy.

Huberdeau did re-invent his game but points are often a reflection of a players linemates as well. 75 points is hard when you aren't playing on a gifted scoring line.

Agreed.

If he was traded to a team that could use him on a high octane line as an expensive complimentary player I think he'd be back to 80-85 points.

But on a team that lacks transition and top line players I think he sticks at 50-60 for the next three years.

Maybe he's still around to be the Jamie Benn to a Reschny and Gridin.

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Nurse has only 5 years left.
Huberdeau has 7.

Huberdeau has 6 years left.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And the statistical model is built on the programmer's opinion of what is valuable in an NHL player, and how different abilities should be measured, and how they should be weighted. Very little about these models is actually objective, apart from the raw statistics used as input.

Sure. But this list isn’t influenced by the author’s subjective opinions about the players on it or the teams they play for. He crunched the numbers using a formula, and this is what popped out. The model may have flaws, but the list doesn’t have the sort of bias that people are complaining about.

[Sofa GM]

How Nurse isn’t in the top 3 worst contracts in this publication is embarrassing. One of 3 things happened,

1. Dom got threatened by the league to not include Nurse on the list and make sure he referenced the Oilers as the best defence in the league.

2. Katz purchased the Athletic

3. The skateboarder intern made the list and put Dom’s name on it and Dom is on a beach and hasn’t seen it yet.

Nurse is a complete liability for his team. If Darnell Nurse plays more than 20 mins a game it is basically an automatic loss. Regardless of his compensation, he is a weak second pairing defenseman and probably better suited on a bottom pairing.

[Robbob]

I also don't think another 10 points are a stretch. Weren't 90% of his assists primary? As a little more talent joins the team he might pick up a few more secondary assists.