Where would the Flames be this season without Wolf?

[CSharp]

The question is not whether Wolf is performed to everyone's expectations or not but the Flames success this season may well be attributed to several other factors even though both goalies are pretty damn good:

1) Huska's defensive style has been effective

2) Defensively, the Flames have been doing well (hence the low opposition scores).

3) Kadri, Huberdeau and Coronato have been clutch players this year and the reliance of defensive plays (and the lack of half the time) shows on the score sheets.

It's not surprising the Flames sits right smack dab in the middle of the league standing at the moment. Having good goaltending is one thing but the team in front of the goalies have 98% of that success or failure. The question one should dare to ask would be to build around a franchise goalie and sacrifice scoring or build around a franchise star center and some good d-men.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Just because a goalie played well and had saves above expected, doesn't mean you can simply subtract that from the score and get a different result. Games flow BASED on the score. Hell, refs REF based on the score.

You can't simply say he saved 11 points in the standings. It just doesn't work that way.

Not to mention, these stats are FAR from infallible. Shot metrics in hockey do not consider time and space, so two (statistically) identical shots from the exact same place on the ice, are not identical because one shooter may have had more time than the other. Applying these stats with the assumption that they are perfectly accurate, is folly. Drawing the conclusions that you are trying to draw from them, is beyond folly. It is flat out garbage, as far as statistics go.

As already mentioned, I'm not just basing this on stats alone, I'm basing it on a combination of stats and watching the games.

Is there some speculation involved here? Of course there is. But any attempt to answer this question is going to involve some speculation on which saves the other goalie would have made (Vladar/Cooley or whoever). Doesn't mean that it's "garbage" just because you say it is.

[memphusk]

They would be sucking hind tit.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

As already mentioned, I'm not just basing this on stats alone, I'm basing it on a combination of stats and watching the games.

Is there some speculation involved here? Of course there is. But any attempt to answer this question is going to involve some speculation on which saves the other goalie would have made (Vladar/Cooley or whoever). Doesn't mean that it's "garbage" just because you say it is.

Well, if you're basing it on 'watching the games', you'll need to watch ALL games, to see how many points other goalies stole. Even if Wolf stole some (and certainly he did), every team has 'stole' some.

There is just no validity to your argument.

[Mathgod]

Just because you misunderstand my argument, doesn't mean there's no validity to it.

[trackercowe]

Even if we finished last we'd still lose the lottery and select 4th. That's what life as a Flames fan amounts to.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Just because you misunderstand my argument, doesn't mean there's no validity to it.

“Just because you say it is”
“Just because you misunderstand”

I’m sorry, but it’s just an objectively poor argument based on things based primarily on things you’ve perceived or how you imagine things might hypothetically be.

Just because YOU have an argument to make, doesn’t mean it’s strong, valid, or logical. You actually have to prove those things, and you haven’t, so it’s not actually about what other people understand or what they say, it’s what you don’t and what you haven’t.

If you want to say Wolf won us 17 points by himself based on “feels” go for it, but don’t be surprised when the facts don’t back it up and try to pretend that they do.

[Jason14h]

I can’t find the NHL WAR ratings , but who’s the worse starting goalie ? Maybe a better Q is how many points has Wolff stole us vs the worse starter . Might get closer to 10 in that case ?

[dino7c]

Ironic this is posted and the Flames immediately beat the Avs with Vladar

Wolf has been great, they are worse without him no question but some of the numbers being thrown around here are 3 or 4x too high. Gaining a team 15-20 points in the standings would be up there with the greatest seasons of all time. Unanamous Hart throphy ect.

[driveway]

Wolf's sv% is .909. League average is .900. That's a difference of about 12 goals, spread over the 45 games he's played. That's for sure a few more losses depending on how you distribute the goals.

However, if we got that same .900 from this average replacement in the games Vladar played, that's 5 goals-against saved, for a net change of 7 between the two.

So ... league-average goaltending and the Flames are worse by probably 4 points depending on how those goals get distributed. Which gives MoneyPuck's WAR stat some creedence.

[Goriders]

Where would the Flames be this year without Danny Vladar?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Could have started this thread by looking for how often Wolf played against bad teams …

It is kind of funny when people put up stats showing that Wolf has now faced some top teams, so they then say his being sheltered is a myth.

The reality of the matter is Wolf looks awesome on the whole because he has padded his stats against the crappy teams. And now that he is facing some better teams, he looks human

Kind of disingenuous to only look at split of starts vs top teams. Here are the split of starts against the bottom 10 teams in the NHL(Wolf - Vladar)

SJ 2 - 0
Chi 3 - 0
Nas 2 - 1
Sea 2 - 1
Buf 1 - 0
Bos 2 - 0
Phi 2 - 0
Pit 1 - 1
Ana 2 - 0
NYI 1 - 1


So that’s what, 18-4 Wolf ?

Within that, we know Wolf is 5-0 vs SJ and Chi, and Vladar hasn’t seen them.

Fall in love but keep your eyes open

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ I will build on that and compare W-L of the goalies

Overall
Wolf 24-15-6. Vladar 11-11-6

Against bottom 10 teams
Wolf 14-1-3. Vladar 2-1-1

Against all other teams
Wolf 10-14-3. Vladar 9-10-5



This narrative that the Flames are only in playoff contention due to Wolf’s heroics needs to die, quite honestly


Sheltering works

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ I will build on that and compare W-L of the goalies

Overall
Wolf 24-15-6. Vladar 11-11-6

Against bottom 10 teams
Wolf 14-1-3. Vladar 2-1-1

Against all other teams
Wolf 10-14-3. Vladar 9-10-5



This narrative that the Flames are only in playoff contention due to Wolf’s heroics needs to die, quite honestly


Sheltering works

So, Vladar is our actual MVP?

[VilleN]

This kind of thing is impossible to quantify. If Wolf wasn't on the team we'd have lost more games, almost certainly. We are likely further out of a playoff position for the majority of the season. This could cause the team to feel less urgency, which could have resulted in more losses, which can have a bit of a cascading effect - so I could see a world where without Wolf we are picking top 5. Who knows though - you can't really do any type of analysis to come up with realistic amount of points we wouldn't have without Wolf - way too many intangibles and variables that can't be accounted for.

[Jason14h]

Maybe a better question is where would the Flames be without their goalies compared to the teams below them

Im going to use GSAA (Goals saved above expected) because... Well it makes this easier and I think it might demonstrate best? Im using Evolving Hockey Site.

Wolf 11.88
Vladar -2.69

Flames total : 9.91 GSAA

The Flames currently have a -23 goal differential. So with 'expected goaltending' they would have a -33 goal differential. I will call this adjusted Goal Differential

So where would this put us if we standardized all other teams?

SJ
Askarov -1.18
Vanacek -8.67
Georgiev -18.75
Blackwood 5.36

Total -23.24 GSAA
Goal Differential -88
Adjusted Goal Differential = -65

Chicago
Soderblom -2.68
Mrazek -9.27
Knight -3.89

Total - -15.84 GSAA
Goal Differential -68
Adjusted Goal Differential = -52

Nashville
Annunen -.015
Saros -3.49

Total -3.50
Goal Differential -51
Adjusted Goal Differential = -47

Seattle
Daccord 10.78
Gruber -14.23

Total -3.45
Goal Differential -21
Adjusted Goal Differential = -17

Buffalo
Reimer 0.93
Levi -6.27
Luukkonen -22.52

Total -27.86
Goal Differential -22
Adjusted Goal Differential = +6

Boston
Korpisalo -3.56
Swayman -9.63

Total -13.19
Goal Differential -51
Adjusted Goal Differential = -38

Philly
Ersson -21.6
Fedotov -9.81
Kolosov -10.34

Total -47.75
Goal Differential -46
Adjusted Goal Differential = +1

Pitts
Blomqvist -5.96
Nedel -7.32
Jarry -7.44

Total -20.72
Goal Differential -56
Adjusted Goal Differential = -35

Anahiem
Reimer -2.28
Gibson +9.73
Dostal +7.81

Total +15.26
Goal Differential -29
Adjusted Goal Differential = -44

MTL
Primeau -14.91
Dobes -1.02
Montembeault -2.98

Total - 18.91
Goal Differential -26
Adjusted Goal Differential = -7

NYI
Sorokin +4.21
Hogberg +7.71
Varlamov -1.75

Total +10.17
Goal Differential -23
Adjusted Goal Differential = -33

Det
Lyon -2.37
Talbot -0.4
Husso -7.14
Mrazek +0.27

Total -9.64
Goal Differential -22
Adjusted Goal Differential = -13

So ordering the teams adjusted goal differential we get is :

Buffalo +6
Philly +1
Montreal -7
Det -13
Seattle -17
NYI -33
Calgary -33
Pitts -35
Boston -38
Anaheim -44
Nashville -47
Chicago -52
SJ -65

Now goal difference isnt the end all - But I think this gives a decent idea of how these teams goalies are affecting their overall success

If Flames were to switch goalies with Buffalo or Philly they could easily be in the bottom 3.

But all goaltending being equal this team sits firmly in the bottom 8 for goals differential

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

^ I will build on that and compare W-L of the goalies

Overall
Wolf 24-15-6. Vladar 11-11-6

Against bottom 10 teams
Wolf 14-1-3. Vladar 2-1-1

Against all other teams
Wolf 10-14-3. Vladar 9-10-5



This narrative that the Flames are only in playoff contention due to Wolf’s heroics needs to die, quite honestly


Sheltering works

That record vs the bottom 10 almost suggests the Flames are better than the bottom 10.

[Enoch Root]

Some of you seem to think Wolf is the only good goalie in the league.

Read DeluxeMoustashe's post above

Also, negative goal differentials tend to be because bad teams get blown out sometimes. The Flames have done a good job of being competitive every night and avoiding the blowouts - they've only had 4 or 5 of them.

No goalie has ever added 15-20 points to a team's record. Ever. And while Wolf has been really good, and one of the bright spots of the season, he is not even close to being in the conversation for a historic season. Adding 4 or 5 pts is amazing, and makes for a great season. If he added 20, they would change the name of the Vezina trophy.

[Ba'alzamon]

Once again: Wolf isn't sheltered. The Flames certainly seem to be trying to shelter him (until recently, anyway), but they weren't succeeding. His expected goals against / 60 is higher than Vladar's, and has been all season. Opposing teams get fewer and worse chances when Vladar is in net than when Wolf is in net (and again: that's been the case all season long).

With that being said, I'm not trying to discredit Vladar here or argue that it's as simple as the Flames being a bottom 5 team without Wolf. But it is factually incorrect that Wolf has been sheltered, regardless of what the intended effect of his deployment has been to this point.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

Once again: Wolf isn't sheltered. The Flames certainly seem to be trying to shelter him (until recently, anyway), but they weren't succeeding. His expected goals against / 60 is higher than Vladar's, and has been all season. Opposing teams get fewer and worse chances when Vladar is in net than when Wolf is in net (and again: that's been the case all season long).

With that being said, I'm not trying to discredit Vladar here or argue that it's as simple as the Flames being a bottom 5 team without Wolf. But it is factually incorrect that Wolf has been sheltered, regardless of what the intended effect of his deployment has been to this point.

Well, when you play SJ, you have a leading goal scorer with 27 goals, and a career shooting percentage of about 11.7%

When you play Edmonton, you face a guy leading the league with over 50 goals and a career shooting percentage of 18.6.%. He scored on Wolf and made it look easy. Good shot.

You have to consider who is on the other end of the expected goals. xG models don’t distinguish between Toffoli and Draisaitl.

Bad teams are bad, and they get outscored by good teams. Usually because the good teams have better players who score more.


Seems you don’t like the word sheltered. But giving up the same number of chances against bad teams (generally fewer high skill players) as you do against good teams, the goalie is still favoured when playing worse teams