[PGT] Colorado 4 Calgary 2

[jg13]

Bahl might be the most under rated player on the team right now. We have been brutal for the most part without him.

Hope to see him back in the lineup after the break

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Fill your boots.

https://www.tsn.ca/yost-rest-makes-a...mance-1.120073

Flames had big "rest disadvantages" in both the Leafs and Avs game when looking at schedules over the last 15 days.

Thanks, but this is 11 years old and still uses Fenwick. It also doesn't measure cumulative "rest" situations, instead comparing each team's last game to their current game. The Flames did not participate in a back-to-back game, and were at home, so they had a 56% chance to win the game according to this.

The Flames had an even rest disadvantage/advantage, and did not have to travel, which leads to this:



So there might be an effect, and I wouldn't blame you for hypothesizing so, but it isn't proven by that article.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by TheSkinner

I think this team has exhausted its talent level. It’s been a valiant effort but it’s probably likely they will lose more than they win now.

I think the break could provide them with a second wind since they're sending only one player and getting valuable players back they were missing.

Need to empty the gas tank to go into it with a win though.

They've fallen back into the thick of it with these losses.

[Macindoc]

I’m not entirely sure it’s primarily the lack of high end talent. The combination of the compressed schedule (more so for the Flames in the past 2 weeks than most other teams) combined with the absence of Zary and Bahl, players not being slotted properly, and the absolute dumpster fire of the 3rd pairing and 4th line and shortening of the bench every game has led to everyone being exceptionally tired, leading to breakdowns and mistakes. If the Flames could have rolled 4 lines and 3 pairs, they might have been able to maintain a lot more energy. But the combination of these issues all occurring simultaneously has been deadly.

[dammage79]

Loss is a loss. Doesn't matter really. Flames played a game against an experienced cup team. Onto the next one.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

This is what game breaking elite talent gets you.

That's why so many of us wanted a top 5 pick. So frustrating.

You’ve yet to outline a plan for what they should have done to guarantee a top 5 pick.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Groot

Draft the best player in the world. Simple!

I never knew why some people wanted a top 5 pick. Now I know why some people wanted a top 5 pick.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Thanks, but this is 11 years old and still uses Fenwick. It also doesn't measure cumulative "rest" situations, instead comparing each team's last game to their current game. The Flames did not participate in a back-to-back game, and were at home, so they had a 56% chance to win the game according to this.

The Flames had an even rest disadvantage/advantage, and did not have to travel, which leads to this:



So there might be an effect, and I wouldn't blame you for hypothesizing so, but it isn't proven by that article.

There is no real analysis done on segments of games that I can find but you asked if there was anything that shows that rest matters and at some level this shows that.

I don't have the time or the care to go do it myself for segments of games.

But it's pretty easy to extrapolate that if rest is important in terms of the days directly before a game, that if a team over a segment of 10-15 days has substantially more rest, that they are going to have an advantage.

In the Leafs game the Leafs had more direct rest (2 days off) and much more rest over a longer period. It was the Leafs 4th game in 10 days, compared to the Flames 6th game in 10 days.

One of those teams is going to have more energy.

In tonight's game it's more even for sure. Both teams had one day rest. But it was the Flames 6th game in 10 days, compared to the Avs 5 game in 10 days.

So not as much of a difference as the Leafs game but it's compounding a bit for the Flames this point. Generally NHL teams get about 2.2 days rest between games, this last stretch for the Flames is 1.67 days between games with 9 games in 15 days.

To me it was pretty obvious these last two games the Flames looked tired. Didn't have the legs to win races, uncharacteristic mental mistakes that generally happen with fatigue, and even the frustration teammates were showing generally comes with fatigue.

And it's not even really an excuse, it's part of a season and every team goes through it at some point but when looking at their performance these last two games it would be foolish to ignore that the schedule has at least some impact.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

There is no real analysis done on segments of games that I can find. And I don't have the time or the care to go do it myself.

But it's pretty easy to extrapolate that if rest is important in terms of the days directly before a game, that if a team over a segment of 10-15 days has substantially more rest, that they are going to have an advantage.

In the Leafs game the Leafs had more direct rest (2 days off) and much more rest over a longer period. It was the Leafs 4th game in 10 days, compared to the Flames 6th game in 10 days.

One of those teams is going to have more energy.

In tonight's game it's more even for sure. Both teams had one day rest. But it was the Flames 6th game in 10 days, compared to the Avs 5 game in 10 days.

So not as much of a difference as the Leafs game but it's compounding a bit for the Flames this point. Generally NHL teams get about 2.2 days rest between games, this last stretch for the Flames is 1.67 days between games with 9 games in 15 days.

To me it was pretty obvious these last two games the Flames looked tired. Didn't have the legs to win races, uncharacteristic mental mistakes that generally happen with fatigue, and even the frustration teammates were showing generally comes with fatigue.

And it's not even really an excuse, it's part of a season and every team goes through it at some point but when looking at their performance these last two games it would be foolish to ignore that the schedule has at least some impact.

Since every team plays the same number of games over the same amount of time, why don't we temper our excitement about a win in an advantageous rest situation when we excuse our disappointment about a loss in a disadvantageous rest situation?

The article you linked showed that 3+ days advantage is actually worse than 3+ days disadvantage. So it isn't about rest, exclusively, assuming n is statistically significant in the analysis. No data provided; simply charts.

Flames have won 5 out of their last 11 games and 21 out of the prior 43 this season. It isn't any anomaly.

Attributing slow play to lack of rest is not analysis. We can make note of their slow play, but there is no empirical evidence that it's due to them working too hard. Otherwise, everyone should be blazing fast in October, right?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Since every team plays the same number of games over the same amount of time, why don't we temper our excitement about a win in an advantageous rest situation when we excuse our disappointment about a loss in a disadvantageous rest situation?

The article you linked showed that 3+ days advantage is actually worse than 3+ days disadvantage. So it isn't about rest, exclusively, assuming n is statistically significant in the analysis. No data provided; simply charts.

Flames have won 5 out of their last 11 games and 21 out of the prior 43 this season. It isn't any anomaly.

Over the long stretch it all tends to even out for sure, every team plays 82 games over the course of about 180 days in the course of a season. Every team will have stretches that are more compressed and stretches that are more rested.

But when looking at these last 2 games specifically, and the performance in those two games, I think it can be shown that fatigue is a factor.

9 games in a 15 day stretch is not a normal body of work for an NHL team. They might still lose both these games even if they are rested - the Leafs and Avs are better teams.

But when looking at the actual performance in the games themselves and how the team looked to me it seems like fatigue is a factor and that would be a factor of the compressed schedule.

For this team it's probably more of a factor because they do lack elite talent and need to play an almost perfect game to win most nights. Lack of talent + fatigue + patchwork d-core is not a good recipe for success.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

There is no real analysis done on segments of games that I can find but you asked if there was anything that shows that rest matters and at some level this shows that.

I don't have the time or the care to go do it myself for segments of games.

But it's pretty easy to extrapolate that if rest is important in terms of the days directly before a game, that if a team over a segment of 10-15 days has substantially more rest, that they are going to have an advantage.

In the Leafs game the Leafs had more direct rest (2 days off) and much more rest over a longer period. It was the Leafs 4th game in 10 days, compared to the Flames 6th game in 10 days.

One of those teams is going to have more energy.

In tonight's game it's more even for sure. Both teams had one day rest. But it was the Flames 6th game in 10 days, compared to the Avs 5 game in 10 days.

So not as much of a difference as the Leafs game but it's compounding a bit for the Flames this point. Generally NHL teams get about 2.2 days rest between games, this last stretch for the Flames is 1.67 days between games with 9 games in 15 days.

To me it was pretty obvious these last two games the Flames looked tired. Didn't have the legs to win races, uncharacteristic mental mistakes that generally happen with fatigue, and even the frustration teammates were showing generally comes with fatigue.

And it's not even really an excuse, it's part of a season and every team goes through it at some point but when looking at their performance these last two games it would be foolish to ignore that the schedule has at least some impact.

I also think that it’s not just energy, but also mental focus. When you’re tired, your shooting percentage probably drops, because you are less focused, slower, and don’t have the extra energy to put into a move or shot. You’re also more likely to make mistakes and less likely to be able to recover from them. A tired team probably has a significant PDO advantage, even if the advanced stats are similar.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Get a permanent replacement for Rooney already. The #### has he done to get nine lives on this team??

Dressing this 3rd pairing 4th line is like rolling out the red carpet for the opposition every time they're out.

Maybe we can't magically conjure some elite talents, but surely we can patch these holes at the bottom of the roster that are taking on water every night.

We have the best AHL team. Borrow the pieces that are working there and plug them into the parts of this team that aren't cutting it. That's what your farm club is for.

Or make a trade.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

There is no real analysis done on segments of games that I can find but you asked if there was anything that shows that rest matters and at some level this shows that.

I don't have the time or the care to go do it myself for segments of games.

But it's pretty easy to extrapolate that if rest is important in terms of the days directly before a game, that if a team over a segment of 10-15 days has substantially more rest, that they are going to have an advantage.

In the Leafs game the Leafs had more direct rest (2 days off) and much more rest over a longer period. It was the Leafs 4th game in 10 days, compared to the Flames 6th game in 10 days.

One of those teams is going to have more energy.

In tonight's game it's more even for sure. Both teams had one day rest. But it was the Flames 6th game in 10 days, compared to the Avs 5 game in 10 days.

So not as much of a difference as the Leafs game but it's compounding a bit for the Flames this point. Generally NHL teams get about 2.2 days rest between games, this last stretch for the Flames is 1.67 days between games with 9 games in 15 days.

To me it was pretty obvious these last two games the Flames looked tired. Didn't have the legs to win races, uncharacteristic mental mistakes that generally happen with fatigue, and even the frustration teammates were showing generally comes with fatigue.

And it's not even really an excuse, it's part of a season and every team goes through it at some point but when looking at their performance these last two games it would be foolish to ignore that the schedule has at least some impact.

I also think that in addition to an energy deficit, tired players also lose mental focus. When you’re tired, your shooting percentage probably drops, because you are less focused, slower, and don’t have the extra energy to put into a move or shot. You’re also more likely to make mistakes and less likely to be able to recover from them. A tired team probably has a significant PDO advantage, even if the advanced stats are similar.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Over the long stretch it all tends to even out for sure, every team plays 82 games over the course of about 180 days in the course of a season. Every team will have stretches that are more compressed and stretches that are more rested.

But when looking at these last 2 games specifically, and the performance in those two games, I think it can be shown that fatigue is a factor.

9 games in a 15 day stretch is not a normal body of work for an NHL team. They might still lose both these games even if they are rested - the Leafs and Avs are better teams.

But when looking at the actual performance in the games themselves and how the team looked to me it seems like fatigue is a factor and that would be a factor of the compressed schedule.

But there's simply no evidence for that. If the league gave the Flames a two week break and remanded them to Hawaii, with the exception of playing Toronto and Colorado a week apart, would the results be any different than they were?

My answer is I don't know. Your answer seems to be yes. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Doctorfever]

Not a great outcome. But sure is a treat to watch McKinnon and Makar live. I think it’s the first time seeing Necas live. He is a fine hockey player, although lots of guys would look really good playing with McKinnon.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by butterfly

But there's simply no evidence for that. If the league gave the Flames a two week break and remanded them to Hawaii, with the exception of playing Toronto and Colorado a week apart, would the results be any different than they were?

My answer is I don't know. Your answer seems to be yes. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

No. There is no evidence that is satisfactory to you that proves that, there is evidence that lack of rest impacts performance.

Just because the Flames schedule here doesn't fit perfectly with the data provided doesn't mean there is no evidence, but it's pretty much common sense to extrapolate that if teams with 2-3 days rest perform better than teams with 0-1 days rest...that a team playing 9 games in 15 days (1.67 rest on average) would perform worse than teams that had 2-2.5 days rest on average.

I have no idea if the results would be any different because hockey is pretty random at the best of times and as I said they could probably still lose the game because the Leafs and Avs are the better teams. Nobody is making an argument thay the Flames losses were entirely due to the schedule.

Just that that Flames performance these last two games was influenced by fatigue and a lack of rest. It was also influenced by injury, coaching decisions, and a overall lack of talent.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

MacKinnon is a top 2 player in the world and makes everyone around him that much better. It's starting to look like he made Rantanen look a lot better than maybe he actually is, and Makar's stats without MacKinnon aren't amazing either.

Looking more and more like Colorado won the trade. Savvy move by MacFarland.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Looking more and more like Colorado won the trade. Savvy move by MacFarland.

Lets see what happens in the playoffs and beyond

[Goriders]

Vcr and Utah both won tonight.

Time to get some smelling salts Flames

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Vcr and Utah both won tonight.

Time to get some smelling salts Flames

Need to beat Seattle for sure.

Looking at last 10:

LA: 4-5-1, 9 points
Vancouver: 6-3-1, 13 points
Utah: 5-3-2, 12 points
Calgary: 5-5-0, 10 points

So lost 3 points to Vancouver and 2 to Utah in their last 10 games.

Looking at the last 20:

LA: 10-8-2, 22 points
Vancouver: 8-8-4, 20 points
Utah: 7-10-3, 17 points
Calgary: 10-10-0, 20 points

And the last 30:

LA: 17-10-3, 37 points
Vancouver: 12-11-7, 31 points
Utah: 13-12-5, 31 points
Calgary: 14-13-3, 31 points

So maybe they could potentially catch LA...but kind of feels like it's going to be a turtle race for that last Wild Card spot between Vancouver, Calgary, and Utah. Probably will take about 93 points or 34 points in the final 28 games to get into the playoffs.