These are character and capacity building games for the team. Glad to see them putting in the work, that will pay off in the long run if they keep it up. These guys must be confident in their nets.
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Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
Trade value for players are seldom changed on a game to game basis, especially when there is a number of seasons of data available.
Now, Vladar has shown himself to be healthy this year, so he likely has trade value now.
Kuzmenko has simply displayed this season what he is. A one dimensional offensive player who contributes little when he's not scoring. Most playoff teams have little room in their top 6 come the trade deadline, so he's not a great fit for most teams seeking help come the deadline.
A player most teams would covet at the trade deadline would be Backlund.
I hate to admit it, but I'm enjoying my decreased GAF factor this season.
Never too high after a win, never too low after a loss.
Besides, they did well for 3 in 4 nights
Yeah I don't even get mad after losses. In fact I look at them positively as hanging around, chasing a wild card spot is probably the worst thing that can happen to this team in the big picture. I'm just happy that the effort level is there most nights and when they win it's a bonus.
I’m not upset. The Flames were trying and hanging around but exhausted.
As far as what this team is, I like the team report below. The 5 v 5 metrics show a team solidly below 50% in almost every metric except actual goals. The reason? Amazing 5 v 5 goaltending. Vladar and Wolf have been outstanding. My biggest question as far as how this team will fare in the standings, is can Vladar and Wolf keep it up? And if Conroy trades Vladar, how does that affect the team’s goaltending?
If you take away the first 6 games for being too good then you should probably take away the next 4 where they went on a 4 game losing streak too, to be fair.
Personally 10 game segments early in the season always make the most sense. The first 10 games you always have to be a bit cautious of. Then it's usual game 11-20 and 21-30 that start to tell the story of what a team is.
First 10 games: 5-4-1 (.550)
Last 7 games: 3-2-2 (.571)
If anything that feels pretty indicative of what the Flames are right now, they probably end up flirting with around .550 all season (unless they move Andersson).
They aren't as bad as we all expected, and the West as a whole isn't very good, so that gives them a chance to stay in the hunt IMO.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 11-13-2024 at 08:02 AM.
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If you take away the first 6 games for being too good then you should probably take away the next 4 where they went on a 4 game losing streak too, to be fair.
Personally 10 game segments early in the season always make the most sense. The first 10 games you always have to be a bit cautious of. Then it's usual game 11-20 and 21-30 that start to tell the story of what a team is.
First 10 games: 5-4-1 (.550)
Last 7 games: 3-2-2 (.571)
If anything that feels pretty indicative of what the Flames are right now, they probably end up flirting with around .550 all season .
They aren't as bad as we all expected, and the West as a whole isn't very good, so that gives them a chance to stay in the hunt IMO.
Agreed, the sample size is too small to be removing games. And at the beginning of the season, most teams go through good and bad stretches, as they figure things out.
I think you can start to make sense of things by the 20 game mark. And as we approach it, the Flames are 8-6-3 and probably hit the 20 game mark a little over .500. Better than anyone expected, but built mostly on hard work, fantastic goaltending, and a bit of good fortune early on. In other words, they probably aren't as good as the record suggests. But nor are they terrible - especially if the goaltending continues as it has.
I think that we have seen enough to verify what we all expected, which is that the offense just isn't there. Upfront, they are deep but lack talent. On D, they are probably better than anyone expected (Bahl and Pachal are both looking solid) but aren't top-half-of-the-league good. The goaltending looks like it is going to be top half of the league, so the question becomes: how long can their work ethic keep them competitive?
IMO, as the pace of play continues to ramp up, and as they continue to slip in the standings, it will become more and more difficult to win games. I still think they end up similarly to last year - under 82 points, and in that 7-10 range (from the bottom).
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I think they will still end up drafting top 10. Coyotes last season were a playoff team to begin January and ended up drafting 6th overall. I feel the Flames will follow something similar.
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*Calgary after removing the 5-0-1 start: .364
**Calgary actual: .559
Calgary*: .364
Nashville: .375
Montreal: .375
Spoiler!
San Jose: .382
Columbus: .400
Chicago: .406
Pittsburgh: .412
Anaheim: .429
Philadelphia: .438
St. Louis: .438
Detroit .464
Seattle: .469
Buffalo: .469
Utah: .500
New York (Islanders): .500
Colorado: .500
Boston: .529
Edmonton: .531
Ottawa: .533
Tampa Bay: .536
**Calgary: .559
Yes, it's silly to do something like removing that heater of a stretch, but it's something to watch as this season progresses. Small sample sizes, but which is closer to actual team performance? The first six games of 5-0-1, or the next 11 games of 3-6-2?
I'm expecting the answer to be somewhere around that .450 mark when the dust settles on the season, which should place the Flames drafting somewhere around the 5th spot with the potential to drop further based on whether or not they do things like trade Rasmus Andersson.
Another way of looking at it:
First 6 Game Set: 5-0-1, .917
Second 6 Game Set: 1-5-0, .167
Third 6 Game Set: 2-1-2, .600 -> 6th game to come on Friday.
That is to say, sample size too small - but I think there's plenty of reason for Team Tank to be positive (the most recent 11 games), Team Mushy Middle to be confident (the current standings), and Team Playoffs to be worried (the most recent 11 games).
On tonight's game - I thought Vladar put in another solid effort while the Flames seemed inept at generating offense in all circumstances
I don't think this analysis is unfair, but I think it would feel a lot different if they were being blown out, they've been blown out 2 games? this year, that is not the day to day reality of the worst team in the league.
Their season long goal differential tells you they are right where they belong in the standings, which is a wild card spot. Their lack of scoring power should worry you when considering if they are able to keep it up. But it's not like they were blowing teams out in the first 6 games bolstering their record, and it's not like they've been getting blown out playing like one of the worst teams in the league for the following 6.
I suspect the 2-1-2 is a lot closer to who they are, and if they can sustain that they should should be a wild card team.
I’m not upset. The Flames were trying and hanging around but exhausted.
As far as what this team is, I like the team report below. The 5 v 5 metrics show a team solidly below 50% in almost every metric except actual goals. The reason? Amazing 5 v 5 goaltending. Vladar and Wolf have been outstanding. My biggest question as far as how this team will fare in the standings, is can Vladar and Wolf keep it up? And if Conroy trades Vladar, how does that affect the team’s goaltending?
Not just amazing 5v5 goaltending, the best 5v5 goaltending. The goalies (and team D, in general) have been great.
It's funny though because while their 5v5 goaltending has been great, their special teams goaltending has been average and it almost averages out.
Even Strength: GF-38 GA-33 Shooting %: 9.18% (21st) Save %: .925 (3rd) PDO: 1.016 (10th)
All Strengths: GF-46 GA-50 Shooting %: 9.45% (23rd) Save %: .904 (8th) PDO: 0.999 (16th)
So based on PDO they are perfectly average in terms of the shooting / save percentage balance right now. And the style the team is playing is somewhat low risk / low event at 5v5...so makes sense.
As a longtime fan I will never cheer for losses and getting a high draft pick doesn't guarantee anything but I can't say I'm excited as to where we are trending right now. Looking at the mushy middle where we have finished for the most part the last 35 years running.
It's funny though because while their 5v5 goaltending has been great, their special teams goaltending has been average and it almost averages out.
Even Strength: GF-38 GA-33 Shooting %: 9.18% (21st) Save %: .925 (3rd) PDO: 1.016 (10th)
All Strengths: GF-46 GA-50 Shooting %: 9.45% (23rd) Save %: .904 (8th) PDO: 0.999 (16th)
So based on PDO they are perfectly average in terms of the shooting / save percentage balance right now. And the style the team is playing is somewhat low risk / low event at 5v5...so makes sense.
Their leading scorer is 99th in the league and a defenseman.
Their leading forward is 143rd in the league.
Probably don’t have to look much further to figure out what the problem is with the Flames. It’s not goaltending or defence.
If you take away the first 6 games for being too good then you should probably take away the next 4 where they went on a 4 game losing streak too, to be fair.
Personally 10 game segments early in the season always make the most sense. The first 10 games you always have to be a bit cautious of. Then it's usual game 11-20 and 21-30 that start to tell the story of what a team is.
First 10 games: 5-4-1 (.550)
Last 7 games: 3-2-2 (.571)
If anything that feels pretty indicative of what the Flames are right now, they probably end up flirting with around .550 all season (unless they move Andersson).
They aren't as bad as we all expected, and the West as a whole isn't very good, so that gives them a chance to stay in the hunt IMO.
The sample size to is too small. American Thanksgiving is outdated and out the window as well.
We are also 7 points from last place in the NHL, which is Nashville. When teams are chasing that last wild card deeper into the season that is usually the point differential you are looking at.
Obviously getting a top 5 is important, but you have to put in some effort to be bad. Thought it might be easier.
Their leading scorer is 99th in the league and a defenseman.
Their leading forward is 143rd in the league.
Probably don’t have to look much further to figure out what the problem is with the Flames. It’s not goaltending or defence.
Well of a ton of that has to do with how Huska is asking this team to play at 5 on 5. This team collapses five guys in the defensive zone and emphasizes limiting chances to the middle of the ice. There is little to no risk taking in terms of creating offensive - especially off of transition.
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