“Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen"

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

who said they were currently? please quote

read really slowly please

IF the Flames make the playoffs, IF and I can't stress this enough IF

they will be one of the top teams in the league, probably top 5 at least from December on. Markstom will also likely in the Vezina convo at that point

IF

nobody is saying keep all the UFAs and trade the first for Duclair

Relax guy

If that happens. They still have no chance. This team is not good enough

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I don't think the Leafs are a contender, but this years Flames? Unreal this thread even started up today looking at this team. Coleman is carrying this team, come on are we really a contender? Yikes

I looked into this because of conversations surrounding parity in the NFL. I did enough digging that I felt like it was interesting to share. The NHL is probably the best NA major league with respect to how competitive teams are.

You'll notice I purposefully left out any interpretation with respect to the Flames this season.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

*snip*

The goal needs to be a team that can consistent finish in the top 10 of the league / top 2-3 of your own division for a 3+ year stretch. Only if you have that consistent success will you have the best chance to actually win a cup.

The Flames built a team that in good years were top 10 teams but didn't do it consistently enough to ever truly be seen in that true contender group that tends to win cups.

And in the end making the playoffs isn't the problem - the problem is if your entire strategy is "just make the playoffs" or if you change your entire long term strategy to "just make the playoffs".

Your strategy needs to be "What decisions will consistently make me a top 10 team" and if that means maybe you trade some UFAs even if you have a chance to finish 16th and make the playoffs then you should trade those UFAS. Doesn't mean making the playoffs is bad though, it's only bad if you let one shot of making the playoffs influence your long term strategy to make short term decisions.

Incredible post.

Hits the nail right on the end - basically if you change your entire long term strategy to "just make the playoffs" (ie. sign Huberdeau for 10.5M rather than try to go for Bedard), you're paradoxically in for a terrible time.

[NegativeSpace]

No one in this thread said anything about the Flames being a contender, even dino. The Flames are outside of the playoffs and likely do not make it, as they have a lot of teams to jump over. However, if they do, then dino is saying that they will have been on one hell of a run - which is true. The odds of that happening are low.


The OP was also about how often teams that just make it tend to go on a run - that's it. It's higher than some (myself included) would imagine. I think everyone would agree with SuperMatt's post that it is preferable to be a top team and make decisions towards becoming a top team with regular playoff appearances. However, the OP was only addressing the issue of just getting into the playoffs.

[dino7c]

"try to go for Bedard" is also a ridiculously terrible strategy

Sabres tried to go for McDavid and have missed the playoffs 13 years in a row? 14? tough to keep track

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If that happens. They still have no chance. This team is not good enough

neither are your Leafs bud, not this year, not next year

window has slammed shut, too many big contracts to the same type of players...blue and white pom poms back in the closet please

D and goaltending win championships...they are brutal on both

not to mention look who is in charge...hilarious you are taking shots at the Flames while saying the Leafs can turn it around with some shrewd moves haha

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by dino7c

"try to go for Bedard" is also a ridiculously terrible strategy

Sabres tried to go for McDavid and have missed the playoffs 13 years in a row? 14? tough to keep track

It would be very interesting if someone did a run down of the amount of time it takes after a drafting in the top 3 before making the playoffs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

No one in this thread said anything about the Flames being a contender, even dino. The Flames are outside of the playoffs and likely do not make it, as they have a lot of teams to jump over. However, if they do, then dino is saying that they will have been on one hell of a run - which is true. The odds of that happening are low.


The OP was also about how often teams that just make it tend to go on a run - that's it. It's higher than some (myself included) would imagine. I think everyone would agree with SuperMatt's post that it is preferable to be a top team and make decisions towards becoming a top team with regular playoff appearances. However, the OP was only addressing the issue of just getting into the playoffs.

true but like I said the league has never been quite like this IMO

there are a bunch of decent teams...take the Flames out of it, the cup champ has never been harder to call. Wild card teams are pretty much as good as division winners.

You have a team like the Devils in 10th place right now

Jets and Canucks are supposedly contenders, which liar was calling that before the season??

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It would be very interesting if someone did a run down of the amount of time it takes after a drafting in the top 3 before making the playoffs.

trying to get younger, selling off UFAs ect. makes perfect sense
nobody is trying to be the worst team in the NHL for a 25% chance

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

"try to go for Bedard" is also a ridiculously terrible strategy

Sabres tried to go for McDavid and have missed the playoffs 13 years in a row? 14? tough to keep track

Yet they almost have had as much playoff success as the Flames. It's not a terrible strategy, especially if you were at one point this season already near the bottom. We should be rolling with that strategy not waiting for a .800 pt percent the 2nd half of this year.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Yet they almost have had as much playoff success as the Flames. It's not a terrible strategy, especially if you were at one point this season already near the bottom. We should be rolling with that strategy not waiting for a .800 pt percent the 2nd half of this year.

well they haven't but okay, their team is also STILL sucks

seems math is hard for you but .800 is a little high

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by dino7c

true but like I said the league has never been quite like this IMO

there are a bunch of decent teams...take the Flames out of it, the cup champ has never been harder to call. Wild card teams are pretty much as good as division winners.

You have a team like the Devils in 10th place right now

Jets and Canucks are supposedly contenders, which liar was calling that before the season??

I think that is fair. The parity is obvious season and teams that get off to fast starts usually are able to sustain their leads. This parity means it becomes a lot harder to erase deficits - which is the reason most models have the Flames low in percentage to make the playoffs despite only being four points out.

I thought LA was doing very well and looked set for a divisional spot and they may miss the playoffs with how things are trending.

Typically, there is a shift again after the all-star break where some teams that have another gear turn things on and elevate and other teams fall back further.

The Flames need to do really well on this home-stand (probably 4/6) and find another gear after the all-star break to have a chance, in my view.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well they haven't but okay, their team is also STILL sucks

seems math is hard for you but .800 is a little high

I don't think they make it, but correct it's not .800

It's more like .625

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Yet they almost have had as much playoff success as the Flames. It's not a terrible strategy, especially if you were at one point this season already near the bottom. We should be rolling with that strategy not waiting for a .800 pt percent the 2nd half of this year.

I'm not sure the strategy needs to be so polarized. Sell off the UFAs that won't sign fair deals or are older (Lindholm, Tanev, Hanafin). If you get an offer that's an over pay on an existing player that has a long term deal, then trade the player. Keep rolling the team forward and seeing what you have for young players as they progress. Keep your picks and focus on drafting the best players available. Re-assess in the off season how the team did and if there are any bargains in the UFA market. Do the same for a few years and see how the team progresses.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think they make it, but correct it's not .800

It's more like .625

exactly, a pretty good team...Vegas has that exact record right now

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think they make it, but correct it's not .800

It's more like .625

.625 might get you in, but not sure if that would meet dino's "IF" scenario where they would be one of the best teams in the NHL in the 2nd half. Needs to be higher for that dream to come true

[dino7c]

sorry I have had how many years of hearing about how shrewd the Sens and Sabres are

there is a middle ground to losing on purpose

even the Oilers, nobody in the history of the league has tanked so bad and they are down to a 2 year window and the 10 game win streak against bottom feeders aside I don't think they can beat a deep team in a 7 game series. They certainly won't be better next year. Tick tock

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

exactly, a pretty good team...Vegas has that exact record right now

But Vegas battled injuries all year, especially in net. Not the same. The Flames aren't that good.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

sorry I have had how many years of hearing about how shrewd the Sens and Sabres are

there is a middle ground to losing on purpose

even the Oilers, nobody in the history of the league has tanked so bad and they are down to a 2 year window and IMO 10 game win streak against bottom feeders aside I don't think they can beat a deep team in a 7 game series. They certainly won't be better next year. Tick tock

You can make a case these teams did not rip it apart to get there, they were there due to being poorly managed.

The continue to be poorly managed, doesn't mean the strategy is bad.

Right now, Flames might be top 3 worst teams on paper when it comes to the next 5 years. I'd take Buffalo squad move forward

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But Vegas battled injuries all year, especially in net. Not the same. The Flames aren't that good.

so don't watch? like what are point are you trying to make here?

the team is 22 points up on the Sharks, they aren't a bottom team this season. Nobody is saying go all in.

Should they get in I think they will be right there with most of the other average teams in the league. Flames goaltending and D is currently better than a lot of these supposed contenders. Aren't they all trying to trade for our guys haha.