Tidbits from THN's Future Watch

[Sandman]

I'm with Scorp, in that there's NHL potential there-he doesn't play like a Bracco or Czarnik, he's got something. He just won't get a fair shake in this organization, he's got to go somewhere else before we see what he's got.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Hoping to see a NCAA Free Agent signed given the draft pick sparsity

I was going to do a little write-up post on the top NCAA Free Agents, but it seems many of them have already signed with NHL teams....

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

If Phillips doesn't make the Flames out of camp next year, he'll be waived and claimed and given a shot by a team with far less depth.

Duehr likely doesn't play another game. He just isn't impactful enough in the A by any measure and he's older than Phillips.

I’d not bet the farms on him being claimed. Pre-season, most teams are still thinking their own prospects are good bets and are reluctant to expose one of their own guys and use a roster spot to claim another. Especially if the cut comes early into camp.

ETA: Looking back, I can’t find any claims on guys with zero NHL games. Except for Jonsson-Fjallby, who was a weird case.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I think his path to the NHL is not making the Flames next year, being waived, and getting claimed. Which, given his production, he probably would.

How often does a 24 year old player with 1 NHL game get claimed on waivers, especially at the start of the season when it's easier to get players through waivers?

[TheScorpion]

Eh, one NHL game is definitely a low sample but a similar type of player with barely more experience in Alex Barré-Boulet got claimed by Seattle earlier this season. Lucas Elvenes was claimed off unconditional waivers by Anaheim earlier this year without playing a single game. It does happen.

My response is: very, very few guys above 1 P/GP in the AHL at age 23 get waived without first getting trial runs in the NHL first.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Eh, one NHL game is definitely a low sample but a similar type of player with barely more experience in Alex Barré-Boulet got claimed by Seattle earlier this season. Lucas Elvenes was claimed off unconditional waivers by Anaheim earlier this year without playing a single game. It does happen.

My response is: very, very few guys above 1 P/GP in the AHL at age 23 get waived without first getting trial runs in the NHL first.

Barre-Boulet had 15 games. And after waivers he couldn’t crack the Kraken lineup for more than 2 games all year. The Kraken!

Elvenes is a hard one to explain since he doesn’t even have good AHL stats. But he was a midseason claim, which is a different animal. Still hasn’t gotten an NHL game in though.

Looking again, Mason Geertsen was claimed without an NHL game to his credit. He’s a monster sized guy who’s played for 5 minor league teams already.

[TheScorpion]

Actually Barre-Boulet was waived by the Kraken after a week when a player returned from injury and went right back to Tampa.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Actually Barre-Boulet was waived by the Kraken after a week when a player returned from injury and went right back to Tampa.

Actually, right back to Syracuse

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

What are the odds of the player not demanding a one-way contract? If you were Phillips would you take a two-way deal? That would all but guarantee he is a career AHLer, unable to force his way onto the roster by contract status. That's why I question whether the Flames sign him again. I don't see him as anything but a minor leaguer, so the Flames have a choice to make about spending an one-way contract on a player with no NHL future with the team. I would think Treliving is a guy that can look down the road and see where his prospects are headed and not waste a contract if he doesn't have to.

Even a one way contract isn't much leverage these days as you can avoid the cap 100% if the salary level is below $1.2M (I think) which it would be.

He can ask for one, but I don't see the resume that would make that likely.

He'll sign a two way, three year contract (maybe two) with a healthy raise on the AHL side of the contract.

Calgary will be happy to pay that given his AHL production and possibility of moving up to the NHL level.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Eh, one NHL game is definitely a low sample but a similar type of player with barely more experience in Alex Barré-Boulet got claimed by Seattle earlier this season. Lucas Elvenes was claimed off unconditional waivers by Anaheim earlier this year without playing a single game. It does happen.

My response is: very, very few guys above 1 P/GP in the AHL at age 23 get waived without first getting trial runs in the NHL first.

He has a point on being a productive AHLer though. At some point a guy becomes a career AHLer or a 4A and that's that, regardless of resume. He'll get pro contracts, maybe the odd cup of coffee, then a career in Europe.

He's not there yet though, and I don't know if Calgary has given up on him, they talk highly of him.

If he does get signed, hopefully he has a more noticeable camp, that really hurt him this year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Button has his top 50 prospects ranking out. It's always a little wacky (which is what I like about it):
https://www.tsn.ca/owen-power-top-nh...ects-1.1784400
2 Flames in the top 50:
- Dustin Wolf #29
- Jakob Pelletier #34

No Coronato or Zary.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Even a one way contract isn't much leverage these days as you can avoid the cap 100% if the salary level is below $1.2M (I think) which it would be.

He can ask for one, but I don't see the resume that would make that likely.

He'll sign a two way, three year contract (maybe two) with a healthy raise on the AHL side of the contract.

Calgary will be happy to pay that given his AHL production and possibility of moving up to the NHL level.

That would be a bad decision on his part. This is definitely the time to play a little bit of hardball with the club and force their hand. Coming off his career year is a time to make a push for the big dollars and a shot at the NHL club. If that doesn't appear to be in the works, then start looking at greener pastures and maximize your earnings over the next five years so you have a nest egg when your career ends. If the NHL is not in the books, then make sure you position yourself to make a big score and start looking at Europe for options.

Careers are short and he's been living on AHL scraps. He doesn't want to be setup for more years of scraps. He's been earning less than $70K per season, so this is a chance to get paid. A one-way deal at league minimum pays him $750K, whether he's in the NHL or not. An AHL deal, even a big one, would be a fraction of that. Why sign a longer-term two-way contract with a team that obviously doesn't believe you have a chance to be an NHLer? Force the one year one-way, or force them to release you so you can chase down a better contract with a possible avenue to the NHL, or move on to where you can put some money ahead of you in Europe.

[Reggie Dunlop]

There's going to be a plethora of Tweener types like Phillips this off-season. A lot of North American (and Western European) players probably won't go back to the KHL given political uncertainty.

Really very little leverage for Phillips.

[Monahammer]

I hope phillips gets a shot with us. I've always liked the little guys and he has done nothing but prove people wrong at every level. I myself thought he had no chance at production in the AHL, but he has proven that very wrong. IMO he definitely has skill that will translate to NHL offense. The question is whether he can maintain intensity and his playstyle while not getting injured over a full NHL season... valid question. But he has done so in the AHL.

Definitely has potential to bite us in the ass. We are always squawking about a lack of hometown boys, or passing over hometown guys in the draft (Point.) But we have a hometown boy in our Org who is beating the odds. Seems really stupid not to at least give him a shot sometime. I think that time is the start of next season personally.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Button has his top 50 prospects ranking out. It's always a little wacky (which is what I like about it):
https://www.tsn.ca/owen-power-top-nh...ects-1.1784400
2 Flames in the top 50:
- Dustin Wolf #29
- Jakob Pelletier #34

No Coronato or Zary.

I'm pretty out of touch , don't feel qualified to comment on the list- having said that interesting to see Glass on there- he just turned 23, of his draft class there are probably 35 guys including Valimaki who have played more games than him, these seem like bad arrows for a top 10 pick forward- reason to think he's still going to kick it into gear? he is producing ok at the AHL and I realize that Vegas ended up being a weird place to try and break in as they were win now from day one somehow

[Monahammer]

If he goes into this offseason with the mentality and mindset to build himself into a fire hydrant (especially around his hip, glute, quad area) and can add another 10 lbs of muscle it would really help him. Not impossible, he's only 24.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

That would be a bad decision on his part. This is definitely the time to play a little bit of hardball with the club and force their hand. Coming off his career year is a time to make a push for the big dollars and a shot at the NHL club. If that doesn't appear to be in the works, then start looking at greener pastures and maximize your earnings over the next five years so you have a nest egg when your career ends. If the NHL is not in the books, then make sure you position yourself to make a big score and start looking at Europe for options.

Careers are short and he's been living on AHL scraps. He doesn't want to be setup for more years of scraps. He's been earning less than $70K per season, so this is a chance to get paid. A one-way deal at league minimum pays him $750K, whether he's in the NHL or not. An AHL deal, even a big one, would be a fraction of that. Why sign a longer-term two-way contract with a team that obviously doesn't believe you have a chance to be an NHLer? Force the one year one-way, or force them to release you so you can chase down a better contract with a possible avenue to the NHL, or move on to where you can put some money ahead of you in Europe.

How can a guy with 1 NHL game at age 23 force anyone's hand?

The Flames will likely have a take it or leave it offer with the expression of wanting him to stay in the organization.

Sign or don't.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Bingo

How can a guy with 1 NHL game at age 23 force anyone's hand?



The Flames will likely have a take it or leave it offer with the expression of wanting him to stay in the organization.



Sign or don't.

Take it or leave it while expressing interest to stay... is mixed signals that won't fool him

If I'm Phillips I ask for 1 year, 1way over 3 years 2way... or whatever

23,24,25 is usually the most productive forward years

If I'm him, I'm angling for 1 way and hoping a team like Seattle waivers me because making the Flames full time is less likely than getting struck by lightning twice in a day

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

Take it or leave it while expressing interest to stay... is mixed signals that won't fool him

If I'm Phillips I ask for 1 year, 1way over 3 years 2way... or whatever

23,24,25 is usually the most productive forward years

If I'm him, I'm angling for 1 way and hoping a team like Seattle waivers me because making the Flames full time is less likely than getting struck by lightning twice in a day

Don't think we disagree.

Are you saying three years two way? Wasn't sure.

But the Flames aren't the team to leverage into a one way unless they lose a bunch of players with salary cap issues and need cheap offence and a flier.

If the owners think who cares to the one way cash though it won't hurt their cap any to pay him to play in the AHL at $800K.

[TheoFleury]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Don't think we disagree.



Are you saying three years two way? Wasn't sure.



But the Flames aren't the team to leverage into a one way unless they lose a bunch of players with salary cap issues and need cheap offence and a flier.



If the owners think who cares to the one way cash though it won't hurt their cap any to pay him to play in the AHL at $800K.

I root for Phillips but I support the philosophy of the franchise right now that kills his future with the team

No real trade value and losing him for nothing is inevitable

Do right by him. 1 yr 1way... call him up and down if needed but accept and hope he ends up getting a real shot with a Seattle somewhere

There's no asset to manage here. If it were me, I'd try to help him out. Probably Czarnik but to find out for sure, you are going to have to lose him for squat