The relative value of Sean Monahan

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

As I said above though I think the decision tree is ...

No extension - trade him
Too long / pricey an extension - trade him
Reasonable term / value extension - keep him

I don't want Gaudreau at say 8 x $9M

I'd also be asking if he'd be willing to expand his 5 team trade list at the deadline if the right deal isn't there this summer.

Assuming they don't talk extension.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

I disagree. The flames are an elite dman from being competitive. Just look at how gios decline has effected production throughout the lineup. You don't compete in this league without a #1 dman

Maybe a rover like Heiskanen or a Makar could make a big difference, but this team has tried to build an elite defensive group for a couple decades now. How many times have we heard “top 5 defense ” going into a new season? It took this team to mediocre 1st round fodder.

I think it’s time to try something different. Build 2 great offensive lines and with Darryl’s defensive systems, maybe they can win some more 3-1 and 3-2 games.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Sutter also really liked Sam Bennett.

Sam Bennett asked for a trade though.

I was a fan of Bennett. I wish he had more opportunity here, and I wish he showed what he has in Florida for the Flames, but based on what we know about Brad Treliving I don't think there was a chance Bennett was staying in this organization after going public with a trade demand.

Who know if Bennett would have turned around under Sutter the same way he has under Coach Q in Florida, but at this point I think both sides were looking for a fresh start and good for Sam on making the most of it.

[SnipeShow]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

This stems from other conversations in various threads, but I thought it might be deserving of it's own.



Could Sean Monahan have the relative value of someone like Joe Nieuwendyk, who landed us Jarome Iginla?



My own thought is that Sean still has enough value to be potentially used in an Eichel trade, or used an a trade to acquire additional pieces for that trade.



But, using Nieuwendyk as a comparable seemed like a good place to start my analysis.



First, the trade in question:







It took place in December, prior to the WJC where Iginla had a bit of a coming out party. He had started the season strong in Kamloops, and had been selected 11th overall in the most recent draft after a just under point per game pre draft season in the WHL.



I'm not sure if anyone can provide any additional context on Cory Millen as I can't beyond statistics; I don't really remember him playing for the flames, and the stats show he played ~90 games for us with 40 points over parts of 2 seasons for us before moving on to play in germany. League journeyman type of career, a la stempniak or versteeg it looks.



11th overall in a recent draft, and a journeyman for a star center. Sounds not bad; for comparison 10-14 in the 2020 draft is Perfetti, Askarov, Lundell, Jarvis, Holloway. Those are some good prospects.



The relative value of prospects has seemingly increased: the length of team control and the ability to stretch cap space to talent ratio with low value entry contracts is invaluable in the Cap world. So it's not apples to apples. But, relative value difference may be offset by Nieuwendyk's contract dispute and desire for a much higher dollar value than calgary could afford (Dallas signed him to a contract worth almost double what Calgary's reported offer had been) versus Sean Monahan's relatively cost effective in the cap world 6.375 for 2 more years.



Comparing Nieuwendyk to Monahan is an attractive match; they're both tall, large Centers who have a reputation for a shoot first mentality and finding open ice. Neither is known for using their size to bully people on the ice, but they're not afraid of getting to the middle and parking there. They both generate similar amounts of shots per season, both have a similarly high (~+5%) Shooting average compared to league averages over their career.



Career wise in Calgary, Nieuwendyk debuted at the tail end of his D+1 season at the age of 20. He scored at a 1.07 ppg pace in the regular season. 314 goals in 577 games in 9 years.



Though he never had any major injuries, he never played any full seasons. He was captain of the club and was part of a cup winning squad, though his playoff performance was notably less impressive than his regular season.





Sean Monahan started for the flames as a 19 year old the season after he was drafted. He has played 8 seasons for the club, 591 games and has 439 points, 204 goals.



Sean's stats have been relatively consistent in the playoffs, where his 0.7 ppg is only 0.04 ppg off of his regular season career of 0.74.





So, Joe had a somewhat more impressive career for the flames just off the cuff. Of course, the team Sean has been on is nowhere near the team that Nieuwendyk played on for most of his time in Calgary, and yet still chronically underachieved in the playoffs... oh the life of a Flames fan.



Trying to era adjust for the periods is a bit difficult. I selected the mid point year in both of their respective careers with the flames to compare the eras: 89-90 for Joe (his best season; 45 goals; 95 points) and 2017-2018 for Sean (His 2nd best season with 31 goals;4 points).



Average goals for in 89-90 was 295; Calgary had most in the league with 348.



Average goals for in 17-18 was 240 (* this is up from the lull in the 220s of the prior year, which could also be used as a mid point in monahans career.) The flames were 27th in the league with only 216 for. (WHAT A BAD TIME TO BE A FLAMES FAN)



Joe was in on (45/348) 12.9% of the flames goals that season. Disappointing follow up to the cup winning season as they fail to pass the kings in the conference semi finals.



Sean was in on (31/216) 14.3% of the flames goals in the corresponding season. This is a season where league scoring in general is down ~20% from the Joe's time. Arguably much more impressive given the relative lack of team depth and talent.



If we adjust Sean's career stats to match the era of Nieuwendyk, it gives him approximately 85 more points (41 goals). That would put him at a more comparable to Nieuwendyk: 245 goals and 524 points in 591 games.



It's not a perfect translation, and again I don't think you can account for the much higher quality of teammate that Nieuwendyk was working with the majority of his career. But, I don't think their relative value can be seen as far off. If you remove Monahan's first season and match his age to Nieuwendyk it gets even more flattering as a comparison.



I think Jeff Carter is another player with a similar history to Monahan prior to his trade for Columbus, and also landed a huge package.



Now, Monahan's injury history is starting to pile up. But, couldn't that be said of someone like Jack Eichel too? Monahan's injuries all seem to be spread out in different areas of his body. Good news that this isn't again in his wrists for example. If the surgery fixes him, he could still have a very productive career ahead. After all, he leads the flames in playoff points over his time with the flames:



The same wasn't true for Joe:





And Sean has 2 more GWG than Joe (these guys are pretty even.)





1. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's value to the team!



2. I want more respect for Sean Monahan's relative trade value.

Thank you for this. I've been a fan of Mony through his ups and downs and it baffles me how after a down year a lot of people just want him gone for anything or use him as a throw in. He's still the highest (maybe 2nd highest now behind MacKinnon) scoring player from his draft. He still plays a coveted center position and while his scoring touch was a bit dry this year he improved other facets of his game like playing stronger defensively and bringing more of a physical aspect. I think he still has some development room left and we will still see some strong seasons out of him. Early this season him and Johnny looked like they traded roles with how solid some of Monys playmaking was while Johnny was doing the scoring. It's been 2 down years for the whole team pretty much, not much of a reach to see him also have 2 down years as an extension of this.

Sent from my GM1917 using Tapatalk

[Owen15]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

How about we start with a single elite line before we go jumping to having two...

Promote our fourth line to first line. We now have elite second third and fourth lines.

Problem solved.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by SnipeShow

Thank you for this. I've been a fan of Mony through his ups and downs and it baffles me how after a down year a lot of people just want him gone for anything or use him as a throw in. He's still the highest (maybe 2nd highest now behind MacKinnon) scoring player from his draft. He still plays a coveted center position and while his scoring touch was a bit dry this year he improved other facets of his game like playing stronger defensively and bringing more of a physical aspect. I think he still has some development room left and we will still see some strong seasons out of him. Early this season him and Johnny looked like they traded roles with how solid some of Monys playmaking was while Johnny was doing the scoring. It's been 2 down years for the whole team pretty much, not much of a reach to see him also have 2 down years as an extension of this.

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It hasn’t been just one down year though, Monahan hasn’t been good enough since 2018. He struggled in the last half of the 18-19 season and into the playoffs. His 19-20 season was extremely underwhelming and this season has been downright abysmal.

I know a lot of people have talked about his improvement in the defensive zone, but over the last couple seasons, he has the worst combined plus/minus of all skaters. So as much as I appreciate the extra vigor, intensity and jam he’s been playing with, constantly being on the ice for more goals against than goals for does not help the team win.

I’m very much in favor of trading him and have felt this way for a long time now. But I also believe he still has value. I think there’s a team out there that thinks they can fix him like Florida fixed Sam Bennett. So I think he’ll still nab the Flames something and hopefully the Flames can turn the chapter with a new #1 or #2 centerman.

[Northendzone]

If you were to rank the starting centres in the league monohan would be in the bottom third of the ranking, and that seems about where the team is in the overall standings

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

If you were to rank the starting centres in the league monohan would be in the bottom third of the ranking, and that seems about where the team is in the overall standings

Ok, sure, I'm willing to concede that.

But we're getting that player at 6.375 million for 2 more seasons.
The idea has always been that another 1B level Centre at least could emerge. It was supposed to be Bennett, and he was supposed to be better than Monahan. We all saw how that turned out here, blame it on whomever.

Lindholm I think is an interesting one, and IMO Darryl has the right of it stacking lindholm's line and letting Monahan play with Dube-Mangiapane.

The real problem has been complicated: for whatever reason Lindy-Tkachuk doesn't seem to produce a ton on it's own. The league also seems to have largely figured out Monahan-Gaudreau. Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk has been producing, but now Monahan is out and wasn't doing squat with Mangiapane and Dube.

So it seems the player mix is just a bit off, but I think we've seen evidence that the players have the talent to get there. That's probably why this is all so frustrating. But this could also help to explain why Bennett blossomed so quickly after the move.

I don't know whether it's personalities, play styles, something that happened, etc. But most of these guys have no chemistry at all with each other. When they do it's in the shortest bursts and is so fragile to maintain. Maybe it's a confidence thing? I still think we're missing a piece of the puzzle.

That's all besides the point. As you were saying, Monahan is in the bottom half of league top line centres, and signed for a reasonable rate for 2 more years. For a team with a real dynamite #1 C and looking for a push over the top, he could be a very attractive piece. Thats the point of this thread, he is still a valuable player.

[redforever]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Sutter also really liked Sam Bennett.

And that situation was out of Sutter's control before he even arrived as the head coach.

I don't think you give up on a center of Monahan's size and with his unique skill set and dedication to the team. I think he has done everything asked of him.

Hopefully with Sutter as a coach, and with successful surgery, he can find his game again.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

If you were to rank the starting centres in the league monohan would be in the bottom third of the ranking, and that seems about where the team is in the overall standings

Monahan is not the #1C on his own team. Where would Lindholm be ranked in starting Centres?

Where would Monahan slot in on potential trade teams? There are significant number of teams that he would not be top-2 .



I don't think that other teams will over look Monahan's last 2 years.

Backlund 74 pts since start of 2019-20 Monahan 76


Over the last 2 season Vincent Trocheck 84 pts .74 ppg compares well with Monahan.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Ok, sure, I'm willing to concede that.

But we're getting that player at 6.375 million for 2 more seasons.
The idea has always been that another 1B level Centre at least could emerge. It was supposed to be Bennett, and he was supposed to be better than Monahan. We all saw how that turned out here, blame it on whomever.

Lindholm I think is an interesting one, and IMO Darryl has the right of it stacking lindholm's line and letting Monahan play with Dube-Mangiapane.

The real problem has been complicated: for whatever reason Lindy-Tkachuk doesn't seem to produce a ton on it's own. The league also seems to have largely figured out Monahan-Gaudreau. Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk has been producing, but now Monahan is out and wasn't doing squat with Mangiapane and Dube.

So it seems the player mix is just a bit off, but I think we've seen evidence that the players have the talent to get there. That's probably why this is all so frustrating. But this could also help to explain why Bennett blossomed so quickly after the move.

I don't know whether it's personalities, play styles, something that happened, etc. But most of these guys have no chemistry at all with each other. When they do it's in the shortest bursts and is so fragile to maintain. Maybe it's a confidence thing? I still think we're missing a piece of the puzzle.

That's all besides the point. As you were saying, Monahan is in the bottom half of league top line centres, and signed for a reasonable rate for 2 more years. For a team with a real dynamite #1 C and looking for a push over the top, he could be a very attractive piece. Thats the point of this thread, he is still a valuable player.

I agree with almost all of that except the notion that Monahan Dube and Mangiapane didn’t work. I thought they were but then Sutter took Dube away and gave them Ritchie after only 2-3 games. I thought they needed more time. Lindholm, Tkachuk and Gaudreau had all played together before. Mangiapane, Monahan and Dube hadn’t ever had time together.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Monahan is not the #1C on his own team. Where would Lindholm be ranked in starting Centres?

Where would Monahan slot in on potential trade teams? There are significant number of teams that he would not be top-2 .



I don't think that other teams will over look Monahan's last 2 years.

Backlund 74 pts since start of 2019-20 Monahan 76


Over the last 2 season Vincent Trocheck 84 pts .74 ppg compares well with Monahan.

I’d put Lindholm around 20th among centres.

[BrownDrake]

Leave Sean Monahan alone.


Quit selling your assets cheap and at a low point.



He helps this team more as a middle 6 forward or 3rd line center in 3 years at $2.5 to $3.0 million than selling him now for a stack of beans. Why are you trying to shed cap space when you are rebuilding or retooling over the next 2 years? Why give ownership and Tre more rope to hang themselves in free agency?


Sean Monahan as a 3rd line center that can play up into your top 2 lines as needed and healthy is just fine. He will be 28 or 29 when this team is supposed to contend again, perfect age. If he was really unhealthy and can return to a 15 goal 40 point level that's fabulous and much needed in this lineup in 3 years.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Maybe a rover like Heiskanen or a Makar could make a big difference, but this team has tried to build an elite defensive group for a couple decades now. How many times have we heard “top 5 defense ” going into a new season? It took this team to mediocre 1st round fodder.

I think it’s time to try something different. Build 2 great offensive lines and with Darryl’s defensive systems, maybe they can win some more 3-1 and 3-2 games.

This is going back to the days of Regehr, Hamrlik, Phaneuf, Bouwmeester, Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, etc where the play of the defense has never lived up to its billing and the team has never lived up to expectations because of it. It's why I feel they should shift their focus on building an elite forward group as you can teach team defense but you can't teach offensive skill. The defense group of Tanev, Hanafin, Andersson, Valimaki is already decent enough. Look at the defensive depth of the Lightning for example. They have one elite defender but the rest of the group is largely average.

[Drunk Uncle]

I think Monahan's value is that of a upper echelon 2nd line scoring center.

His worth is probably a mid to late 1st round pick, a surefire prospect outside of the elite group or a top 4 d-man with whatever small bits it takes to balance.

If you trade Monahan now you better be committed to a re-build or be getting the better player back.

What I would hate to see the Flames do is trade someone out of the top 6 without replacing them while not committing to a full re-build. That would be the certain path to mediocrity.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This is going back to the days of Regehr, Hamrlik, Phaneuf, Bouwmeester, Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, etc where the play of the defense has never lived up to its billing and the team has never lived up to expectations because of it. It's why I feel they should shift their focus on building an elite forward group as you can teach team defense but you can't teach offensive skill. The defense group of Tanev, Hanafin, Andersson, Valimaki is already decent enough. Look at the defensive depth of the Lightning for example. They have one elite defender but the rest of the group is largely average.

I don't disagree that forward is where the Flames need to improve. But saying Tampa doesn't have elite defence - except for that Hedman guy - is a little against the grain. Besides, Segachev, Shattenkirk and McDonough I'd say are above average. And Cernak doesn't look like a bad up and comer.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I’d put Lindholm around 20th among centres.

So that would have the Flames with a legit #1 C!!!

His scoring this season puts him at #18 in the league #6 in the North Division.

Only Centres ahead of him in Canada are Matthews/Tavares McDavid/Drasiatl and Schefiele . He is basically elite and at 4.85 for the next 3 years is a bargain basement.


His scoring would put him ahead of Barzal, Point, Stamkos, Horvat, Dubois, Giroux, Couturier, Krejci, Suzuki, anyone on Vegas, Kopitar


Backlund is a solid #2 centre to play a shutdown role so what do the Flames need to upgrade to become a contender.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So that would have the Flames with a legit #1 C!!!

His scoring this season puts him at #18 in the league #6 in the North Division.

Only Centres ahead of him in Canada are Matthews/Tavares McDavid/Drasiatl and Schefiele . He is basically elite and at 4.85 for the next 3 years is a bargain basement.


His scoring would put him ahead of Barzal, Point, Stamkos, Horvat, Dubois, Giroux, Couturier, Krejci, Suzuki, anyone on Vegas, Kopitar


Backlund is a solid #2 centre to play a shutdown role so what do the Flames need to upgrade to become a contender.

Well, if you think a guy around #20 in a 32 team league is "elite", OK. As for scoring, there are definitely some with off years or injuries or up and comers I'm going to place above him even if they didn't outproduce him this year. He plays in the North division, as noted, and that's not exactly the toughest competition.

He's not ahead of Barzal, Point, Eichel, Kopitar, Malkin, Stankos etc at the very least IMO, despite outpointing them. You'd have an interesting argument about guys like Petterson, In fact, PPG, he's behind even Strome, Eichel, Krejci, and he'd be about 26th ranked.

There's zero question about his bargain contract though. Congrats, Treliving.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, if you think a guy around #20 in a 32 team league is "elite", OK. As for scoring, there are definitely some with off years or injuries or up and comers I'm going to place above him even if they didn't outproduce him this year. He plays in the North division, as noted, and that's not exactly the toughest competition.

He's not ahead of Barzal, Point, Eichel, Kopitar, Malkin, Stankos etc at the very least IMO, despite outpointing them. You'd have an interesting argument about guys like Petterson, In fact, PPG, he's behind even Strome, Eichel, Krejci, and he'd be about 26th ranked.

There's zero question about his bargain contract though. Congrats, Treliving.

IF (big IF) Lindholm is a legit top #1C and he spent most of the year with Tkachuk and Dube (Not a top-6 forward on any team in the league, never mind top-line) maybe Lindholm would be a top-10/12 C if he was given 2 top 6 wingers.

Putting him with Gaudreau and Tkachuk he has 14 pts in last 16 games.

*** warning **** garbage time when basically out of the playoffs...and opposition can live with a loss.. what the Hall-RNH-Eberle Oilers used to do to show how good they were going to be next year.


PS what team can afford to put Monahan with 2 top-6 wingers? Where does he fit?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I'd also be asking if he'd be willing to expand his 5 team trade list at the deadline if the right deal isn't there this summer.

I really doubt that he would carte blanche simply expand the list, but I assume every player could and would say "bring me a deal and I'll consider it". I assume that is routinely done.