Pat Steinberg: Matthew Tkachuk is likely in line for a bounce back season

[Calgary4LIfe]

Flames better get this right.


When Tkachuk is 'on', he is a franchise-level type of talent. He hasn't been 'on' for a while, however, and with a 9 million QO option coming up + the possibility of him becoming a UFA early, this off-season is the best time to trade him.



What happens if he has another poor year? His value tanks even more outside of the fact that he needs to have a 9 million QO. He would be stupid not to bet on himself and just accept the 9 million QO, and then do his best to then sign a higher dollar, longer term deal. That's a gamble. His value will be very low.


So do you gamble on bringing him back and hoping he turns the corner, and plays 'nice' on his contract? Or do you offload him and salvage value?


This is a tough decision to make. If you look at the players who are looking better under Sutter, you see Gaudreau and Lindholm as pieces that are fitting-in. Some people may be surprised with that, but that's because they still live in a world that Darryl's system is all about running guys through the boards. Darryl needs fast players that work hard constantly - go on the forecheck and always put a lot of pressure on the puck. That's why Gaudreau and Lindholm - who in my opinion always seem to work hard and have high GAF metres, are having success.


Monahan and Tkachuk - the two slower forwards - are struggling. In Monahan's defence, I do see him working hard. Anyone going to dispute that? I haven't ever seen him play this physical consistently before. I can see why Darryl is liking him, and he has been way better defensively too. Plus, he does have the 'playing through an injury' excuse (which may or may not be true). However, if Monahan's injury is something minor that is not affecting his shot or skating, then I will at least put him into the 'not working out' bin.


When it comes to Tkachuk, he is not working out under Sutter, and he isn't looking like his GAF metre is all that high. I am sure it is, but at the same time, it doesn't appear to be the case. The last thing anyone should question is Tkachuk's GAF metre, but here we are.


I think Tkachuk is the risk right now. If he doesn't fit under Darryl and flounders next season, I think his value tanks substantially as now you have to qualify him at 9 million to retain him, even though he is playing poorly. What team wants to take risk on? I am sure 31 other teams will want to, but at a substantially lower value.


I don't know why Tkachuk isn't fitting in and succeeding under Sutter. Yes, his skating is a reasonable argument to make, but I could rather easily make the counter-argument as well that he USED to get where he needed to be and made for an excellent forechecker for his first couple of seasons here.


Gaudreau LOOKS like he is working out well under Sutter now, but is that just a little bit of a hot streak? I know at the start of the season, he was riding an extremely hot shooting percentage, and the PP was crushing it, but Gaudreau was getting less chances than he was before. To me, he is looking better now than he was at the start of the season, and he is getting rewarded for it. However, that may actually not be the case and his underlying metrics in his last 10 games might be poor.


There is a lot to figure out. For me, the Tkachuk contract is the most pressing to figure out. You have to either deal with it this season and trade him, or you have to really be sure that not only can you work out an extension with him, but that he will fit on the team moving forward. Ditto for Gaudreau - you need to get the sense of what he is thinking in terms of an extension, and get rid of him if it isn't working out. I think he will be an easier re-sign than Tkachuk though, and probably at less risk since it will probably be a lower dollar value (but of course I could be wrong).

[chedder]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Is his contract an issue? Not yet. And as such gives the club lots of time to figure out what the issue is before selling low on him this summer.

His contract is 100% an issue right now. You have to sign him longterm this summer or else he will be a trade deadline rental come spring and we won't get full value on a trade.

He has one year left on his current deal and if he isn't extended you give him one year at $9 million to walk him straight to free agency.

If he plays next season with no new deal that means he wants the one year QO, which means he wants free agency and likely doesn't want to be here long term.

This offseason will tell us what the future is for Tkachuk. If you can't extend him you have to trade him.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by chedder

His contract is 100% an issue right now. You have to sign him longterm this summer or else he will be a trade deadline rental come spring and we won't get full value on a trade.

He has one year left on his current deal and if he isn't extended you give him one year at $9 million to walk him straight to free agency.

If he plays next season with no new deal that means he wants the one year QO, which means he wants free agency and likely doesn't want to be here long term.

This offseason will tell us what the future is for Tkachuk. If you can't extend him you have to trade him.

Not true at all.

You assume Tkachuk has interest in talking a long term deal after he has his worst season? Unless it is a massive overpay he is going to rebuild his value and I assume sign a long term deal here or elsewhere next offseason. Flames could easily trade him in the offseason next year to a team that he has interest in signing with.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I wish I could thank this post more than once.

It is blowing my mind that many of the same fans that are demanding to “rebuild the right way” are the same ones who are done with Tkachuk at 23 because of a less than stellar 50 games where there are no fans in the building.

The tale of Tkachuk’s season is likely the most interesting story for me as it pertains to this team. He really tried to put pressure on himself and it seems like after the Toronto incident his teammates may have told him to tone it down and he has been lost since.

Reshaping this team and giving Tkachuk an offseason to reset will go a long way to him getting back on track to the player we thought he was on his way to becoming.

I'm good with letting him bounce back, and I hope Treliving has all the information.

But I can't get past the difference in how he looks on the ice this year. Everyone has seasons where on ice shooting percentage tanks and production goes with it, but he doesn't look like the same player..

If it's own personal frustration effecting his game, then he should be fine. But if there's an issue in the room, or he wants out it's a different story.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Not true at all.



You assume Tkachuk has interest in talking a long term deal after he has his worst season? Unless it is a massive overpay he is going to rebuild his value and I assume sign a long term deal here or elsewhere next offseason. Flames could easily trade him in the offseason next year to a team that he has interest in signing with.

What's not true? If he doesn't sign longterm this summer, all he has to do is play one more year at 9 million then go anywhere he wants. If he says no to an extension now it means he doesn't want to be here.

Next year we're just supposed to trust that he wants to sign with us when he can go straight to free agency?

And, no, I don't think he has any intention of signing a long term deal this summer whether he played well or not.

His last contract put the team over a barrel and the best way to get out from under it is to trade him. His value in a trade won't get better if we wait until next season.

[GioforPM]

I think that, unless a team really makes a huge offer, the best thing to do is qualify him, play for a year and see what happens. He's worth a fair bit at the TDL if it doesn't pan out.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm good with letting him bounce back, and I hope Treliving has all the information.

But I can't get past the difference in how he looks on the ice this year. Everyone has seasons where on ice shooting percentage tanks and production goes with it, but he doesn't look like the same player..

If it's own personal frustration effecting his game, then he should be fine. But if there's an issue in the room, or he wants out it's a different story.

Agree 100% but you have to give it at least next season to see which it is.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm good with letting him bounce back, and I hope Treliving has all the information.

But I can't get past the difference in how he looks on the ice this year. Everyone has seasons where on ice shooting percentage tanks and production goes with it, but he doesn't look like the same player..

If it's own personal frustration effecting his game, then he should be fine. But if there's an issue in the room, or he wants out it's a different story.

Yep. If he asks for a trade, do you bring him back? Trust him to paly to the best of his ability and be a role model while they work out something in the best interests of the team?

It's an "if" for sure and there's been no mention of a trade request. Speaking for myself though, I would not be surprised.

[Rollin22x]

Originally Posted by chedder

What's not true? If he doesn't sign longterm this summer, all he has to do is play one more year at 9 million then go anywhere he wants. If he says no to an extension now it means he doesn't want to be here.

Next year we're just supposed to trust that he wants to sign with us when he can go straight to free agency?

And, no, I don't think he has any intention of signing a long term deal this summer whether he played well or not.

His last contract put the team over a barrel and the best way to get out from under it is to trade him. His value in a trade won't get better if we wait until next season.

The problem is that you're not in Trelivings shoes and you don't know how discussions/the relationship are between them. The trust part comes from that relationship. I'd guess Treliving has a good idea of what will happen with his highest paid player.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by chedder

What's not true? If he doesn't sign longterm this summer, all he has to do is play one more year at 9 million then go anywhere he wants. If he says no to an extension now it means he doesn't want to be here.

Next year we're just supposed to trust that he wants to sign with us when he can go straight to free agency?

And, no, I don't think he has any intention of signing a long term deal this summer whether he played well or not.

His last contract put the team over a barrel and the best way to get out from under it is to trade him. His value in a trade won't get better if we wait until next season.

Are you kidding me? You have a vision of how this went in your head and it is all negative.

Why would be sign this summer when he is coming off a bad year? Makes absolutely no sense and does not mean anything when it comes to his future intentions.

You also assume he is racing to accept the $9M to walk to UFA. Do you remember the 2019 offseason? Likely the most prolific offseason when it came to RFA’s. With a rising cap and hope that it would only go up with a new TV deal on the horizon in 2 years many of those RFA’s did what Tkachuk did. Point, Boeser, Laine, Meier, McAvoy, Werenski, Fiala all signed bridge deals many with the poison pill QO.

Only Marner, Konecny, Connor, Rantanen went long term with their teams.

Flames have 2 years of control so there is not absolute need to sign him this summer. What player in their right mind would sign an extension after a bad year on the tail end of a pandemic before they see how what the next year holds? It doesn’t mean he wants out at all

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Nothing above changes the fact that he should be moved. Really hoping for a good return.

He’s part of the rotten core.

I can't wait for the Flames to trade their entire core for a couple late 1st round picks.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm good with letting him bounce back, and I hope Treliving has all the information.

But I can't get past the difference in how he looks on the ice this year. Everyone has seasons where on ice shooting percentage tanks and production goes with it, but he doesn't look like the same player..

If it's own personal frustration effecting his game, then he should be fine. But if there's an issue in the room, or he wants out it's a different story.

I think we need to factor in the Covid situation and the fanless building and inability to get away from it when you are away from the rink. I just think too many people are reading into this season as a sign of things to come where I see a lot of reasons why this team will be a lot better next year. I am far more on moving the Gio/Gaudreau/Monahan/Backlund core than I am Tkachuk.

If he requests a trade then that is a different scenario altogether