2020 US Election Prediction Thread

[81MC]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I really hope either result doesn't devolve into violence and chaos. I can't believe this is democracy in 2020.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1323301954513108994

Americans have to believe they’re better than this. Is the culture of violence and self-destruction so pervasive that this is necessary as a result of democratic process?

It sure seems like there’s a part of that nation gleeful for its ruin. Absolutely absurd.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's 2020. I am predicting a ####storm of monumental proportions.

There are 4 key states that are all within the margin of error where Trump can win them, if you consider disenfranchising voters, voter intimidation, and just flat our meddling in the counting process. The whole Republican philosophy is that if you can't prove our allegations wrong, then it will need to go to the courts.

If those 4 state go to Trump due to the reasons mentioned above, then he wins.


I am not sure if this is an intelligent question, but why do delegates seem to always vote unanimously for the president who won their state, no matter our close the results were. Could some of them break ranks and have a red state with delegates that actually vote for Biden, or vice versa? The only time I heard of this happening was like 200 years ago when a president (Monroe?) ran uncontested and there for won every state, but one lone delegate voted for John Quincy Adams just to make a statement.

If the state is split, then it should stand to reason the opinions of the delegates is split along similar lines.

[JR449]

Plywood is cheap. Having your store looted by the scumbags that use a legitimate protest against a Democratic Vote as cover for anarchy isn't.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's 2020. I am predicting a ####storm of monumental proportions.

There are 4 key states that are all within the margin of error where Trump can win them, if you consider disenfranchising voters, voter intimidation, and just flat our meddling in the counting process. The whole Republican philosophy is that if you can't prove our allegations wrong, then it will need to go to the courts.

If those 4 state go to Trump due to the reasons mentioned above, then he wins.


I am not sure if this is an intelligent question, but why do delegates seem to always vote unanimously for the president who won their state, no matter our close the results were. Could some of them break ranks and have a red state with delegates that actually vote for Biden, or vice versa? The only time I heard of this happening was like 200 years ago when a president (Monroe?) ran uncontested and there for won every state, but one lone delegate voted for John Quincy Adams just to make a statement.

If the state is split, then it should stand to reason the opinions of the delegates is split along similar lines.

In general the election on Tuesday is to select the electors. It differs state by state but the each party submits a list of electors and back up electors and which ever party wins the majority sends its electors to vote. So while there could be defectors that list would likely be only life long party members

Secondly each state has their own rules on what happens to faithless electors and of their votes count. For example Florida the electors swear an oath to vote for the indicated party but their is no legislated consequence and the vote would still count if they defect.

The Supreme Court has ruled in general that state laws are to be followed for the selection and consequences for electors. Here is a good summary of state by state rules.
https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws

[GGG]

Biden will win eventually,

I’m hoping for a peaceful transition of power which means Biden needs to win one of Florida, Ohio, or Arizona outright on Tuesday night.

I predict Biden will be down 9 points in Pennsylvania when counting ends for the Evening at 3 am Eastern time. I’m going to suggest that state polling averages by 538 in are +/- 2% this year.

[united]

Fun tool - thanks for sharing.

Tried a few scenarios as an estimation of low-probable-high outcomes. Used different degrees of bias error based on previous elections and aggregated the two most accurate polls by log loss from last election.

Probable: Biden 319
Low: Biden 279
High: Biden 350

Of course, like anything with Trump involved, who the hell knows. But I have a lot of cash on Biden.

[worth]

I think this is going to be way closer than people think. I don't think there is any way Biden wins Texas or Florida and betting on those states is not a good idea.

My prediction is:

277 - Biden / Democrat
258 - Trump / Republican


It essentially comes down to PA.


link

[dissentowner]

Biden wins in a landslide. Trump refuses to concede and cries about illegal ballots and a clearly rigged election. Eventually this ends up in the Supreme Court where Trump who thinks he has the SC in the bag is shocked when they validate the election and declare Biden the winner. Trump disappears shortly after, rumours are strong he has fled to Russia. Several criminal indictments are brought against him and he ends up on the FBI 10 most wanted list. Months after the election the Trump loyal are still causing anarchy in the US.

[united]

Here's where the betting markets are at at the sharpest book in the World, Pinnacle, vigorish removed:

Presidency
Trump +180 (~35%) / Biden -205 (~65%)

Biden over/under 310.5 Electoral votes
Over +110 (~46%) / Under -129 (~54%)

Popular vote
Trump +631 (~13%) / Biden -917 (~87%)

Arizona
Trump +116 (~44%) / Biden -141 (~56%)

Florida
Trump -148 (~57%) / Biden +122 (~43%)

North Carolina
Trump -122 (~52.5%) / Biden +101 (~47.5%)

[troutman]

James Carville predicts Biden will be declared President by 8 pm MST tomorrow night.

[dammage79]

Aside from Biden, how do the senate elections look? Like SC and KY specifically.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by troutman

James Carville predicts Biden will be declared President by 8 pm MST tomorrow night.

Haha, oh James...you always were overly optimistic about the democrats.

Not a stupid man, but has clear biases that cloud his objective judgement.

[Titan]

Originally Posted by robbie111

Surprise of the night-Trump declares Martial Law and then is shot by his security detail. Pence takes over and says it was a Chinese plot to take over America. A quick exchange of nuclear weapons and thats a wrap.

Well, that was dark.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Aside from Biden, how do the senate elections look? Like SC and KY specifically.

The best thing to come from this election is deplorable Lindsey Graham begging for money on state tv every night like a homeless meth addict.

$5- $10! $5 -$10! $5 - $10!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Haha, oh James...you always were overly optimistic about the democrats.

Not a stupid man, but has clear biases that cloud his objective judgement.

He is betting that Florida, Ohio, or Georgia go Biden with enough of a lead on mail in ballots that the rest of the counting doesn’t matter.

[troutman]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1323323994192445442

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Titan

Well, that was dark.

Welcome to the timeline.

[Titan]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Welcome to the timeline.

I don't like it!! I want the other pill!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by troutman

James Carville predicts Biden will be declared President by 8 pm MST tomorrow night.

I can't wait to see who he pardons on his way out.

Part of me wouldn't be surprised if he just leaves the day to day stuff to Pence for the last few months and focuses on how to mitigate all the legal trouble he will be facing when he is released from his duties.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

This might help get us a clue on who will win on election night:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/u...-forecast.html

Then again, depending on the results, it might not.