The Looming bankruptcy of Sinclair sports networks

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Joborule

He's saying the source of the stream - the broadcast itself - is from those cable companies that are at risk of bankruptcy.

Not that it would really matter. If the source is altered for the streaming company, there will either be an alternative that would step in (Regional ESPN like TSN/Sportsnet?), or they could produce the product themselves.

The of these new regional deals may be interesting though if it comes to the point that Fox Sports can't operate anymore.

This is what I am saying and it would matter IMO...who is going to produce games regionally in the US? Is there money in it?

I have my doubts

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Containment of the Spanish flu was not easier, it was impossible. The principal breeding ground for the virus was the huge body of troops awaiting discharge at the end of the First World War, and they had to be repatriated to their home countries (where they spread the virus like wildfire) because they could not simply be kept on the battlefields and left to die.

The Black Death killed nearly as many people as the Spanish flu, out of a far smaller population, in a world that had no railways and no transoceanic travel at all. Modern transportation isn't the game-changer that you make it out to be. Pandemics don't need aeroplanes to spread.

If you are going to insist that containment of a virus was harder in the world of 1920 than today, then we will agree to disagree. Whatever. Doesn’t change the fact COVID-19 is going to severely damage the business of pro sports. Like real bad.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Corral

If you are going to insist that containment of a virus was harder in the world of 1920 than today, then we will agree to disagree. Whatever. Doesn’t change the fact COVID-19 is going to severely damage the business of pro sports. Like real bad.

The containment of a virus among ten-plus million soldiers was harder than anything we have to face today. Instead of ‘agreeing to disagree’, maybe you should read up on the history of that period.

[Corral]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

The containment of a virus among ten-plus million soldiers was harder than anything we have to face today. Instead of ‘agreeing to disagree’, maybe you should read up on the history of that period.

Why are you picking a fight over WWI in a thread about the looming bankruptcy in pro sports 2020?

I’ve read plenty about that era. Thanks for the encouragement though.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Corral

Why are you picking a fight over WWI in a thread about the looming bankruptcy in pro sports 2020?

I’ve read plenty about that era. Thanks for the encouragement though.

Because you're the one saying that pro sports are never going to recover because COVID-19 is worse than the Spanish flu. Which it isn't, so your argument doesn't follow.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Corral

in a thread about the looming bankruptcy in pro sports 2020?

Maybe? There's a shift in how people consume pro-sports for sure. Whether less or watching is up for debate.

How elastic is the demand for sports on TV is the real question. If people have to pay $500 a year to stream NHL would they vs having other cable subscribers subsidize sports

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/s...gs-sports.html

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Maybe? There's a shift in how people consume pro-sports for sure. Whether less or watching is up for debate.

How elastic is the demand for sports on TV is the real question. If people have to pay $500 a year to stream NHL would they vs having other cable subscribers subsidize sports

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/s...gs-sports.html

The end of that article said that total time spent watching pro sports is up, but that individual sports are down. Having them all on at the same time that makes sense - most people are going to watch one thing at a time. They also mentioned that news ratings are way up, which makes sense in a US election year with a pandemic. Neither of those factors is likely permanent.

The factor that is likely permanent is cord cutting. As people cancel cable, it doesn't seem likely that individual streaming service deals will make up the revenue. Many casual fans won't subscribe, and those who were paying for sports channels as part of their cable package but not watching them definitely won't.

The leagues won't be able to take more revenue than they generate for their partners for very long.

The x-factor here is the big diversified streaming services. Amazon has been buying NFL games, and if Netflix started producing sports they could bid significant amounts. I think if Netflix was going to do live events they'd probably start with news (no rights cost) before sports, but who knows.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Maybe? There's a shift in how people consume pro-sports for sure. Whether less or watching is up for debate.

How elastic is the demand for sports on TV is the real question. If people have to pay $500 a year to stream NHL would they vs having other cable subscribers subsidize sports

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/s...gs-sports.html

Well. I am sure I am not the only one here who pays ~$1,000 a year for a cable package. Then of course have to buy Disney+ for the kids and wifey, netflix because it's necessary, and have prime video because i like quick delivery. The only thing I really use the cable package for is sports, and my wife only uses it to tape endless amounts of garbage TLC programming.

If I could dump the cable and pay $500 a year for guaranteed access to all Flames games and a handful of other divisional games+Playoffs, then supplement with an additional CBSgo or Crave or whatever BS I would be all over it.

[Johnny Makarov]

How much better would the NHL be if they contracted 5-6 teams. I might even start watching again!....

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Well. I am sure I am not the only one here who pays ~$1,000 a year for a cable package. Then of course have to buy Disney+ for the kids and wifey, netflix because it's necessary, and have prime video because i like quick delivery. The only thing I really use the cable package for is sports, and my wife only uses it to tape endless amounts of garbage TLC programming.

If I could dump the cable and pay $500 a year for guaranteed access to all Flames games and a handful of other divisional games+Playoffs, then supplement with an additional CBSgo or Crave or whatever BS I would be all over it.

You can? For even less than that.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

You can? For even less than that.

My issue is blackouts, especially when I travel, even to my BC place. If they went blackout free...

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My issue is blackouts, especially when I travel, even to my BC place. If they went blackout free...

True. But I guess it is at least worth noting that if you live in Alberta or Saskatchewan and you only have cable to watch the Flames or a few other sports, $240 for all your Flames games (if you don't travel outside the region) is definitely better than $1000.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

True. But I guess it is at least worth noting that if you live in Alberta or Saskatchewan and you only have cable to watch the Flames or a few other sports, $240 for all your Flames games (if you don't travel outside the region) is definitely better than $1000.

My other issue is that where I live the internet isn't great.

But yeah. Live sports is about all cable has going for it.

[dustygoon]

I haven't read all of this thread, but important to note that Sinclair the parent entity has bonds which trade around par (leverage is reasonable, generates cash), so it's ok. But Sinclair's sub Diamond Sports was the holdco for the new assets acquired from Disney (nice sell Walt!) where leverage exceeds 8.5x (broadcasters are worth 8x EV/EBITDA so equity under water). They had to do an exchange offer to restructure the new bonds used to fund the acquisition from Disney right out of the gate which means they overpaid for those assets. Dish cutting the fox RSN's from its lineup was key issue there. Then Hulu piles on (owned by Disney...cruel move Walt!). In the end, the sports RSN's have some value and should continue on after it is restructured (Sinclair's equity in Diamond gets wiped out and the debt holders become equity holders), but not what it once was.

Sports has tonnes of value in the future, but people don't want to consume it the old way through cable, satellite and local broadcast feeds (i'm sure people discussed this already). The mouse's next cutthroat move i guess will be to strike direct distribution deals with leagues/teams and stream those on HULU.

[Jason14h]

Yeah i think the streaming companies get in a bidding war for sports soon

[Enoch Root]

The Spanish flu was easier to contain? That's a hot take.

Things will go back to normal. And rumours of the death of professional sports are greatly exaggerated.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I haven't read all of this thread, but important to note that Sinclair the parent entity has bonds which trade around par (leverage is reasonable, generates cash), so it's ok. But Sinclair's sub Diamond Sports was the holdco for the new assets acquired from Disney (nice sell Walt!) where leverage exceeds 8.5x (broadcasters are worth 8x EV/EBITDA so equity under water). They had to do an exchange offer to restructure the new bonds used to fund the acquisition from Disney right out of the gate which means they overpaid for those assets. Dish cutting the fox RSN's from its lineup was key issue there. Then Hulu piles on (owned by Disney...cruel move Walt!). In the end, the sports RSN's have some value and should continue on after it is restructured (Sinclair's equity in Diamond gets wiped out and the debt holders become equity holders), but not what it once was.

Sports has tonnes of value in the future, but people don't want to consume it the old way through cable, satellite and local broadcast feeds (i'm sure people discussed this already). The mouse's next cutthroat move i guess will be to strike direct distribution deals with leagues/teams and stream those on HULU.

Worth noting that under 4% of the bondholders took that exchange. So the other 96% thought they were better off taking their chances as unsecured vs taking a hit and moving up to secured debt.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Corral

Sure this will eventually be controlled. Will it go away? Nobody knows that yet. Comparisons with the Spanish flu are difficult. Remember that was a world where the only way to travel across oceans was by boat and most people still relied on horses or train for long distance overland. Containment was much easier And it still killed 50 million. In a global interconnected human civilization these viruses can be far more difficult to contain. Even an effective vaccine will take years to distribute world wide.

Pro sports is in trouble

We didn’t know things about virology and microorganisms that we do now.

We couldn’t mass produce PPE and masks, to say nothing of marshalling billions of dollars on short notice to find a vaccine.

We couldn’t get messaging on best practices out in real time via electronic devices that the majority of the adult population owns and uses 5+ hours a day.

50M dead Vs 1M. Maybe that number goes up to 2M before this is truly over - I doubt it. The modern world has done a truly amazing job fighting this virus over the last eight months.

If the United States was led by anyone else, up to and including Mike Pence, this would be under control by now.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

This is what I am saying and it would matter IMO...who is going to produce games regionally in the US? Is there money in it?

I have my doubts

The production of the game can be separate from the distribution. The demand for consuming sports in the comfort of your home, or wherever you are, is not going down IMO. The manner in which it will be distributed is changing as others have articulated very well.

As long as there are distribution channels that consumers are willing to pay for, there will be people who will produce the games for a price.

[combustiblefuel]

I will never feel bad for anything to Sinclair media.