Can Ryan take on Backlund’s role; is Backlund who we trade?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

I'd be wary of trading Backlund for a top 6 winger. I think we run into the same issues as a few years ago in the the sense that our lines will be a wreck if we have an injury to one of our centres. Backlund is fine playing long term at 2C. I don't think I have the same confidence in Ryan playing 2C if one of Lindholm or Monahan is injured for a significant duration.

I think it's safer to move a player down the depth chart as he'd be a know quantity if moved back up, rather than to move a player up the depth chart as he's an unknown quantity higher up the depth chart. As such, I'd try to move Ryan for futures to unlock that same 3 mil in cap space.

In my mind you aren't trading backline for a winger, you're trading him for the cap space to sign tkachuk and mangiapane and also gaining a winger.

Cap space is at such a crazy premium right now that the teams that have it are going to be able to benefit from a bidding war for that space to become cap compliant.

We'd all trade Ryan before backlund but would Columbus attach the same value to Ryan as they would backlund?

It's looking to me more and more that the flames are going to have to move a major piece rather than a fringe piece. Hamonic, backlund, hanifin. The price to move a frolik might have to include a major pick or prospect with it. The flames can't really afford to move any more futures and with the acquisition of a comparable player in lindholm I think the writing is on the wall with backlund.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

In my mind you aren't trading backline for a winger, you're trading him for the cap space to sign tkachuk and mangiapane and also gaining a winger.



Cap space is at such a crazy premium right now that the teams that have it are going to be able to benefit from a bidding war for that space to become cap compliant.



We'd all trade Ryan before backlund but would Columbus attach the same value to Ryan as they would backlund?



It's looking to me more and more that the flames are going to have to move a major piece rather than a fringe piece. Hamonic, backlund, hanifin. The price to move a frolik might have to include a major pick or prospect with it. The flames can't really afford to move any more futures and with the acquisition of a comparable player in lindholm I think the writing is on the wall with backlund.

I don’t think the writing on the wall says anything about Backlund, and also - the team is trying to compete for a championship - you don’t decimate your depth at the most important position when you’re trying to do that.

We finally have a top tier first line, and win the Western conference, and some people are of the mindset that we should take our only true high-end right winger and transition him to centre while also trading one of the best defensive centres in the league? Seems unwise.

[SeanCharles]

If the Kadri deal tells us anything its that Treliving is looking at adding to our center depth not take away from it.

He clearly sees Monahan, Ryan and Backlund as the pieces to keep considering Janko was part of the deal.

We have an abundance of lefthanded wingers so why would we ship out our #2 C instead of looking at moving a guy like Frolik? I get you want something more than just capspace but mid-level lefthanded wingers are the most easily replaceable commodities in the NHL, start there instead of decimating our C depth.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Bennett
Lucic-Ryan-Mangiapane
Dube-Jankowski-Czarnik
Quine

Gio-Brodie
Hanifin-Hamonic
Kylington-Andersson
MacDonald

Rittich
Talbot

[Toonage]

^ I would be at peace with that lineup going into the season

[You Need a Thneed]

In a world where cap space appears to be the most highly valued commodity, attempting to trade a better player with a higher cap hit simply to gain cap space probably doesn’t work out like you think.

It’s a bizzaro word where someone even brings up trading Backlund simply to free up cap space.

Backlund was 4 in selke voting a couple of years ago, in a year he probably should have won it.

He was 8th last year, and that was probably criminally low. In terms of defence, he may be the best forward in the league. Other perennial selke candidates are only valued above him because they score more points than him.

The rate at which Backlund plays against the top talent from other teams and regularly keeps them off the scoresheet is basically unmatched by anyone else in the league.

[pepper24]

I would entertain trading Backlund if Flames think Lindholm is ready to be 2nd line center. Won't know to start the season but maybe later in the year or summer. Trade Backlund to get a top 6 winger back. I'd stick with Jankowski for now. He's still young and probably not much trade value. I think he can be a capable 3rd line center with Ryan able to step in as needed.

Monahan
Lindholm
Jankowski/Ryan
Ryan/Jankowski

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

In a world where cap space appears to be the most highly valued commodity, attempting to trade a better player with a higher cap hit simply to gain cap space probably doesn’t work out like you think.

It’s a bizzaro word where someone even brings up trading Backlund simply to free up cap space.

Backlund was 4 in selke voting a couple of years ago, in a year he probably should have won it.

He was 8th last year, and that was probably criminally low. In terms of defence, he may be the best forward in the league. Other perennial selke candidates are only valued above him because they score more points than him.

The rate at which Backlund plays against the top talent from other teams and regularly keeps them off the scoresheet is basically unmatched by anyone else in the league.

I'm a huge Backlund fan and I absolutely don't think we should trade him, but purely on defensive ability Bergeron is head-and-shoulders above Backlund. Backlund's more of a new-age shutdown player where it's his elite transition and cycle game that keeps opponents off the scoresheet. Purely based on own-zone play I take Bergeron every day of the week.

[jlh2640]

Backlund is not getting traded

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don’t think the writing on the wall says anything about Backlund, and also - the team is trying to compete for a championship - you don’t decimate your depth at the most important position when you’re trying to do that.

We finally have a top tier first line, and win the Western conference, and some people are of the mindset that we should take our only true high-end right winger and transition him to centre while also trading one of the best defensive centres in the league? Seems unwise.

I agree with the sentiment here but ultimately there are cap realities at play.

Right now the Flames are sitting at about 7.5m in capspace and will need about 9-10m to sign Tkachuk and Mangiapane with a small amount of breathing room afterwards.

So how do you grab that extra 2.5-3m?

There are 4 teams that can realistically take on that kind of cap hit without sending money back, and there are 10-15 teams that will be relatively desperate to do deals for that cap space. Meaning, it's not just a simple in/out value proposition, the Flames will be competing with other teams who want that capspace just as badly.

So while we'd all prefer to move Ryan over Backlund, the deal will have to be structured to give the acquiring team something they actually really want. They will have to be convinced to take Calgary's offer over that of say Winnipeg or Philadelphia or Toronto or Washington or Pittsburgh etc etc etc.

That means moving a valuable piece. If you think you can subtract Frolik to columbus or Ottawa, you're probably attaching a major pick to him to get that deal done. Frolik + 2020 1st rounder for a 6th or 7th round pick type of deal.

Toronto set the market with the Canes that a 6.25 million cap hit that was more productive than Frolik last year was worth a 1st round pick. I believe since that time the price to move a cap hit has gone up because the overall pool of capspace has decreased dramatically.

Would you pay a 1st round pick or Pelletier to move Frolik? Seems pretty steep to me.

On the other hand, Backlund is a player with significant value. You don't need to attach much if anything to move him based on what's coming back. Otherwise, you're looking at dealing Hamonic or Hanifin and I don't love the idea of moving either of those guys, either.

it's easy to say "oh just trade frolik" but the fact that that hasn't happened yet I think illustrates that isn't easy.

Meanwhile, the Flames have a player in Lindholm who frankly looks every bit as good as Backlund does, is younger, is cheaper, and is more versatile.

I think right now it's a pick your poison, who do you subtract from the lineup:

Backlund
Hamonic
Hanifin
Frolik + 1st round pick

None are great options.

[neo45]

Backlund faced the highest quality competition among all the forwards and had good results

Ryan had good results and started in the D zone a lot but it was against much weaker competition

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

I liked this post a lot. Enough so that I decided to do some research.

Here's a "Did you Know" for the forum.

Jankowski had the 3rd most points of any player in the league who played less than 13 minutes on average last year. The only players with more than his 32 were Bjorkstrand with 36 and Duclair with 33 (Pominville had 31 in 6 less games as well).

That seems like a pretty good stat. I kind of felt like Jankowski had a bit of a disappointing season, but in that context he actually had a really good season.

I've grown tired of waiting for Janko, as it were, but I didn't know this. It's always impressive when guys do more with less.

He's such a strange hockey player. He's big, strong, a good skater, has a rocket shot, good defensively, great on the PK, liked by teammates... He just takes FOREVER to progress (like I'm one to talk). Ultimately, that's always been his deal, so we can't hold it against him now. Dude is just a frog who relishes the slow boil.

I wonder if Mark isn't the sort of player who has his career year when he's 29 and goes on to have a really solid back nine. Maybe a better Dan Cleary.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

I'm a huge Backlund fan and I absolutely don't think we should trade him, but purely on defensive ability Bergeron is head-and-shoulders above Backlund. Backlund's more of a new-age shutdown player where it's his elite transition and cycle game that keeps opponents off the scoresheet. Purely based on own-zone play I take Bergeron every day of the week.

So I like this comparison for sure but the one interesting thing is that in limited head to head play over the last 3 season Backlund comes out on top.

In the last three seasons Backlund + Tkachuk have played 6 games against Marchand and Bergeron.

In those games they've played 38 minutes head to head at 5v5 and 36 minutes where Backlund and Tkachuk were not on the ice.

In the 38 minutes Backlund vs Bergeron played head to head the Flames were:

CF%: 52.6%
GF: 3
GA: 1
xGF%: 52%

So Backlund actually gets the better of him head to head.

Similar story against McDavid and Draisaitl.

Backlund has played 40 minutes at 5v5 against McDavid and Draisaitl over the last three seasons. Over those minutes the Flames are:

CF%: 58.8%
GF: 3
GA: 0
xGF%: 58.9%

In that same time McDavid and Draisaitl have played 70 minutes without Backlund on the ice. In those minutes the Flames are:

CF%: 46.2%
GF: 1
GA: 5
xGF%: 39.5%

That right there shows you the value of Backlund and why he shouldn't be traded. We can put him against the best centers in the league and he comes out on top.

[Icon]

My bet stands at Frolik getting traded. Brad's just waiting for other teams to see what they have at camp and for either an injury or planned player stepping up not working out for a team to suddenly need a RW and that causes the return to improve for the Flames. Move Frolik for a higher pick than what's currently offered or prospects or whatever. Then we have plenty of space to sign Tkachuk and Eatbread.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

...So while we'd all prefer to move Ryan over Backlund, the deal will have to be structured to give the acquiring team something they actually really want. They will have to be convinced to take Calgary's offer over that of say Winnipeg or Philadelphia or Toronto or Washington or Pittsburgh etc etc etc...

You are presuming that Calgary's offer will be worst of all the competing teams. (As is typical, you continue to insist that the worst case scenario for the Flames is always the most realistic one.) I would think that all these teams are essentially in the same position, which means finding that very delicate balance in moving 1) a quality asset with 2) a high enough cap hit, and 3) not so valuable as to handicap the team. You keep pretending that this is exclusively a Calgary problem, and then your solution is to exceed the value of a Flames move to catastrophic proportions. The fact that it is not substantially levels the playing field, and essentially means that the difference makers will not be a 5th vs 1st round pick, but rather a 5th vs a 4th.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

You are presuming that Calgary's offer will be worst of all the competing teams. (As is typical, you continue to insist that the worst case scenario for the Flames is always the most realistic one.) I would think that all these teams are essentially in the same position, which means finding that very delicate balance in moving 1) a quality asset with 2) a high enough cap hit, and 3) not so valuable as to handicap the team. You keep pretending that this is exclusively a Calgary problem. The fact that it is not substantially levels the playing field.

lol, no, I'm saying Ryan wouldn't be the best deal of the competing teams but Backlund would be the best offer of the competing teams which is why you would do that deal.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Icon

My bet stands at Frolik getting traded. Brad's just waiting for other teams to see what they have at camp and for either an injury or planned player stepping up not working out for a team to suddenly need a RW and that causes the return to improve for the Flames. Move Frolik for a higher pick than what's currently offered or prospects or whatever. Then we have plenty of space to sign Tkachuk and Eatbread.

My bet is on no one getting traded. Tkachuk and Mangi together fit into the remaining cap space the Flames have.

There isn’t enough cap space league wide to pay all of the RFAs the money that they would even get in compromise deals between the teams and themselves. Somethings gotta break.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

lol, no, I'm saying Ryan wouldn't be the best deal of the competing teams but Backlund would be the best offer of the competing teams which is why you would do that deal.

I recognize that, and I think you are wrong. I tend to think that the sorts of offers with which Calgary will be competing will be right in line with Frolik + a late pick. Of course Backlund would be far and away the best offer on the table, but by such an extravagant margin that it would be a very bad deal for Calgary—one that the Flames should be loathe to make.

[Enoch Root]

If signing Tkachuk for term means losing Backlund, then you tell Tkachuk that there is only a short term deal on the table.

Tkachuk wants to win as well as getting paid. If getting the deal he is looking for means losing Backlund, and setting the team back significantly, then he is no doubt sensible enough to back off from it.

If I am Tkachuk and signing a shorter term deal means:

1) the team is more competitive, and
2) the cap is probably going up substantially due to the pending US deal, so I can probably get a bigger raise in 2 or 3 years,

then I, for one, would be open to discussing a short term deal.

Stating that we are going to be forced to lose Backlund because Tkachuk and Mangiapane are going to cost $9-10M, is over-stating an assumption as a fact.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

I'm a huge Backlund fan and I absolutely don't think we should trade him, but purely on defensive ability Bergeron is head-and-shoulders above Backlund. Backlund's more of a new-age shutdown player where it's his elite transition and cycle game that keeps opponents off the scoresheet. Purely based on own-zone play I take Bergeron every day of the week.

Not to mention Bergeron is money in the playoffs while Backlund was imo our worst forward in the playoffs last year. His defensive play in that series was putrid.

[Enoch Root]

Of course Backlund is a more attractive asset in trade than Ryan. Taking that one more step, Monahan is more attractive than Backlund, so I guess we should trade him instead.