Should we adjust our expectations for this team?

[Five-hole]

So I ran the numbers this year (spoilered, below). The correlations are as follows:

5v5 Goals For to Points %: 61.8% correlative
5v5 Goals Against to Points %: 73.9% correlative
5v5 Goal Differential to Points %: 82.3% correlative

So 5v5 goal differential is the strongest correlation to team success of any of these stats BY FAR.

FWIW, Flames are 20th in 5v5 GF, 5th in 5v5 GA, 11th in 5v5 goal differential, and 12th in points percentage.

Spoiler!

Team	GA 5-5	GA 5-5 Rank	GF 5-5	GF 5-5 Rank	Diff.	Diff. Rank	Points % Rank
VGK	86	12	107	2	21	3	1
TBL	74	4	106	4	32	1	2
BOS	70	1	102	5	32	2	3
NSH	73	3	82	22	9	12	4
WPG	87	14	98	7	11	10	5
WSH	82	9	94	10	12	7	6
SJS	88	16	77	27	-11	23	7
DAL	80	7	100	6	20	4	8
STL	80	8	95	8	15	5	9
COL	82	10	94	11	12	8	10
NJD	96	23	93	13	-3	20	11
CGY	76	5	85	20	9	11	12
MIN	86	13	86	18	0	19	13
TOR	96	22	107	3	11	9	14
PHI	72	2	85	19	13	6	15
LAK	79	6	87	17	8	13	16
CBJ	88	15	91	15	3	16	17
ANA	85	11	91	14	6	14	18
PIT	109	29	75	30	-34	30	19
NYI	113	31	115	1	2	17	20
NYR	95	20	95	9	0	18	21
CHI	90	17	94	12	4	15	22
CAR	100	26	84	21	-16	25	23
DET	91	18	82	23	-9	22	24
MTL	92	19	78	26	-14	24	25
FLA	101	27	81	25	-20	27	26
EDM	96	24	90	16	-6	21	27
VAN	95	21	76	28	-19	26	28
OTT	105	28	82	24	-23	28	29
BUF	99	25	69	31	-30	29	30
ARI	111	30	76	29	-35	31	31
							
		Correlation					
		5-5 GF to Points %	0.618145161				
		5-5 GA to Points %	0.738709677				
		5-5 Goal Diff to Points %	0.822983871

[Simon96Taco]

Yes, we should adjust our expectations after every single game.

After a win, we should expect the cup.
After a loss, we should expect to draft #1 overall.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Karl

Or get any depth scoring.

I always thought the scoring depth was there. But it needs to come from the backend as a whole, not just another winger. If the Flames D starts putting up points, then that means the forwards are getting better opportunities and putting up points. Adding another top 6 winger as big of a need as that is, won't make nearly as big a difference as the entire D putting up points like we know they can. With how the team lacks chemistry some games, a new winger might not slot in like it would on paper (like Duchene). The D starting to produce more offence would make a much bigger difference. Most teams are lucky if they get one D who breaks 40 pts. The Flames 3 who have that capability, and have shown to do it consistently in the past. Even Hamilton isn't on pace for 40.

I always said at the start of the season that the scoring depth would have to come by committee by the D putting up points. The flip side to that is that the D appear to finally be able to lock down playing D and IMO the team is much better defensively now. A drop in offence was to be expected.

My expectation for the team is pretty much where I expect them to be. A playoff bubble team that fights all season long for a playoff spot, and could land anywhere from 1st to 4th in the Pacific. I understand the frustration being shown these days. But the parity in the league is such that every fan base has the same 'woe is me' attitude when it comes to their team. With the cap, every team has a fatal flaw or 2 that prevents them from being in the upper echelon of elite teams. And even that changes season to season.

[stone hands]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Trying to figure out if it is reasonable to expect a team that struggles to score 5-5 to be a top offensive team with the man advantage.

Maybe there is something to the powerplay system being terrible. I personally feel it is the lack of passing ability that is hurting the powerplay rather than a lack of finishers.

I really don't like Brodie getting heavier PP minutes than Hamilton, and now that I type that, I don't even know if it's empirically true, but it sure seems like it.

this is what i see and the biggest problem with the pp with versteeg out:

once they gain entry and possession(if they ever do), the flames basically bounce the puck between the forward on the half wall(usually johnny) and the dman. they will then try and attack that side with 3-4 defenders in the way and usually ends up with a blocked shot and a clear, or it gets deflected to the corner and none of the forwards forecheck hard enough to beat a dman, so it gets cleared.

they never try to draw the opponents to one side and feed it to an open man, instead, they create the space and then drive the puck into traffic instead of feeding it across. johnny and bennett in particular get "trapped" inbetween the forward and the d, they feed it up the boards to the dman, the dman feeds it across to the other point man...and then they just give it back to johnny or bennet to flounder for another 5-10 seconds until they get the puck stripped or they take a shot into 7 bodies and it gets cleared

versteeg is really really good at avoiding getting trapped and distributing the puck around to open areas. granted, he's playing point and has more space, but the same principle applies

why create the space if you're just going to drive it into the traffic you just nearly alleviated? its infuriating to watch

[Corral]

Meeting expectations this year. I've consistently stated the 'window cracking open' narrative was a year or two early for this group.

What they really need to find or develop is a goalie who will be an elite #1 in about 3 years.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by simon96taco

yes, we should adjust our expectations after every single game.

After a win, we should expect the cup.
After a loss, we should expect the Islanders to draft #1 overall.

fyp

[442scotty]

My expectations were already low relatively speaking. I was hoping for entertaining hockey 75 percent of the time. I would say they are entertaining to watch 40 percent of the time but that's just my opinion. Playoffs would be icing on the cake

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

How many times this year would a PP goal have won it for them? And not only did they not get it, but the PP turned momentum the other way?

4 Times. Nov 22, Dec 12, and then just recently the Kings and the Jets.

4 more times where even 1 pp goal would have meant at least a point. Oct 19 &27, Dec 14 &29.

Now you can't expect to get a powerplay goal every game, but I wasn't counting the games where a 2nd pp goal would have made a difference either.

The terrible PP has absolutely hurt our season thus far.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

You should have done this with points per 60 minutes, not points per game. Some guys are being used more. Some are being used less or in different roles. Hamilton, I would argue, is not being used anywhere near enough - at evens or on the power play.

I don't disagree, but I threw this together over my lunch break today. If you want to do that, have at 'er.

I simply wanted to compare last year to this year.

[Brick]

Personally, I would like to see Dougie Hamilton on the ice more often in key situations.

Our #2 defenceman gets to sit and watch lesser players too often.

[Brick]

With a new head coach and PP coach, I would have higher expectations for this team.

Right now they are on the bubble and a probable early exit if they make the playoffs.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Corral

Meeting expectations this year. I've consistently stated the 'window cracking open' narrative was a year or two early for this group.

What they really need to find or develop is a goalie who will be an elite #1 in about 3 years.

They have a top 3 vezina candidate in net right now. Only reason they are fighting for a playoff spot.

[djsFlames]

My expectation is the second round, or at least taking a round the distance. Will need an improved PP to get there.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Don't adjust expectations.

Adjust the coach.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

They have a top 3 vezina candidate in net right now. Only reason they are fighting for a playoff spot.

What? No, I don't think so. Vezina candidates are not usually offered a spot at the all-star game as an injury replacement. Smith has had a very good year, but I don't think he's in the conversation yet.

[RedMan12]

Originally Posted by Simon96Taco

Yes, we should adjust our expectations after every single game.

After a win, we should expect the cup.
After a loss, we should expect to draft #1 overall.

False.
After a loss, we should expect the Islanders to draft #1 overall.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

What? No, I don't think so. Vezina candidates are not usually offered a spot at the all-star game as an injury replacement. Smith has had a very good year, but I don't think he's in the conversation yet.

He should have been there from the start over 12 GP Fleury

[Machiavelli]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

What? No, I don't think so. Vezina candidates are not usually offered a spot at the all-star game as an injury replacement. Smith has had a very good year, but I don't think he's in the conversation yet.

He absolutely should be in the conversation, along with Vasilevski, Rinne, and Hellebuyck

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

He absolutely should be in the conversation, along with Vasilevski, Rinne, and Hellebuyck

No.

[Hot_Flatus]

Last night sealed my low expectations for this team in 2018 - I don't see them in the playoffs come April.

They could not even produce a quality 60 minute effort after blowing three straight winnable games, primarily all on home ice. Three of these games were against severely struggling clubs. One of these games was against a team that is your biggest rival that has been embarrassing you for two years now.

The 2017/2018 Flames just don't have that second gear a playoff team needs unless something drastic changes over the next few games and they somehow start moving the give a crap meter more than a few shifts a game.