Time to panic yet? Or still too early?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Things to look forward to for the remainder of the season:

66 games to practice our PK and PP for next year when it might matter.
66 NHL games of experience to give our youngsters
Possibly play spoiler for the Oilers.

But if it's 66 games of practicing the wrong way, then it's a really negative thing for the young players.

[Rick M.]

It's too late to panic. If we change the coach(es), let's not do it until we have a worthy replacement who has agreed to take the reins. Let's not make trades unless they are good value.

[saillias]

I imagine at this point Treliving is searching for this team's Mike Sullivan.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

It's too late to panic. If we change the coach(es), let's not do it until we have a worthy replacement who has agreed to take the reins. Let's not make trades unless they are good value.

This exactly.

The season is already over. It is all about assessing needs for next year, and that means that no matter how badly Nick Kypreos wants us to trade Hamilton right now, you don't do it. There would be no profit.

It just sucks that we fans literally pay for this mess.

[cupofjoe]

I do find this thread kinda of funny, we are 'only' 5 points out of wildcard and 8 points out of first for the division, so theoretically a very good run will get us back in the thick of it.

Having said this, there is very little indication or promise of things changing. The best players are playing poorly, the goal-tending hasn't been great, the effort is not there, etc.

Not much to get optimistic about, but other teams have come back from worst starts, I am not throwing the towel in yet, but I do have the season on life-support....

[malcolmk14]

The time to panic has passed. I have a 1/3 share of season tickets and I've attended 6 out of my 15 games.

I'll still attend the other 9 out of obligation but I am finished caring if they win or even score.

I'm not watching the Flames on TV until Gulutzan is fired or they're back above .500, which I am totally fine with if it's not again this season.

[redforever]

If the coach is bad, and I think he is, you get rid of him sooner rather than later. You don't let a bad coach further mess with your players and have your players regress further.

I don't get the reasoning that the year is lost, ride it out with the same lousy coach, and then start over next year. If a mistake has been made in the hiring, then right the ship now. Do some damage control.

Bring up Huska. He has won how many Memorial Cups and should be more than familiar with a lot of the strengths of the Flames.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by redforever

If the coach is bad, and I think he is, you get rid of him sooner rather than later. You don't let a bad coach further mess with your players and have your players regress further.

I don't get the reasoning that the year is lost, ride it out with the same lousy coach, and then start over next year. If a mistake has been made in the hiring, then right the ship now. Do some damage control.

Bring up Huska. He has won how many Memorial Cups and should be more than familiar with a lot of the strengths of the Flames.

Totally agree. The team in Stockton is buying in, playing well and winning.

[DeluxeMoustache]

There was that article that cited a handful of teams and indicated that the average duration prior to stabilizing and taking off was 18 games. That is our current working excuse.

So far we have enjoyed the excuses:
- Johnny and Monny missed training camp (which expired a few games in to the season)
- they had so many games that they just didn't have enough scheduled practises (that is now expired with the 4 days off last week and also this 3 days)
- now we are on the one where it takes about 18 games before things stabilize

Some people preach patience. The next 10-12 games are where we see if it is patience or just hope.

Last year don't forget the 7 game win streak to start December.

So I think it's too early to panic but not too early to throw out the excuses and start the clock on the Flames being judged based on their results

[automaton 3]

It's past the time to panic. Flames are currently the 2nd worst team in the league on points and are bottom feeders in pretty much every single statistical category.

When you look at the the lineup, I don't see a lottery team. Whatever the coaching staff are attempting to accomplish, it is failing spectacularly.

Being stubborn and keeping people that are clearly not suited for a position in that role does more harm than good imo. Time to clean house.

[Toonage]

I'd be fine with replacing Cameron with someone that could ultimately step into the head coaches role if things continue to go south. Think of it like the Crawford/Boucher scenario in Ottawa. If thats Huska or someone from outside the organization thats fine. Special teams get a kick in the pants, theres a new voice in the room and a contingency plan if Gulutzan needs to go.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

They will recover to miss the playoffs by five or six points and draft 10th.

[madmike]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

It's past the time to panic. Flames are currently the 2nd worst team in the league on points and are bottom feeders in pretty much every single statistical category.

When you look at the the lineup, I don't see a lottery team. Whatever the coaching staff are attempting to accomplish, it is failing spectacularly.

Being stubborn and keeping people that are clearly not suited for a position in that role does more harm than good imo. Time to clean house.

Their 5v5 Corsi is actually excellent. Which may say more about the real value of Corsi than anything else.

Treliving wanted a team that's better in puck possession and that's what he got. The problem is they're bad at pretty much everything else.

[united]

Originally Posted by madmike

Their 5v5 Corsi is actually excellent. Which may say more about the real value of Corsi than anything else.

Treliving wanted a team that's better in puck possession and that's what he got. The problem is they're bad at pretty much everything else.

Puckon . net has them at 47.2%, good for 24th in the League.
Corsica has them at 50.3%, good for 13th in the League.

Neither is "excellent".

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Toonage

I'd be fine with replacing Cameron with someone that could ultimately step into the head coaches role if things continue to go south. Think of it like the Crawford/Boucher scenario in Ottawa. If thats Huska or someone from outside the organization thats fine. Special teams get a kick in the pants, theres a new voice in the room and a contingency plan if Gulutzan needs to go.

I realize Cameron should take blame for the powerplay but the PK is awful and this team is once again at the bottom of the league in GAA. Sorry but making Cameron the scapegoat for this mess will serve nothing but to appease the fan base for about a week until reality sets in that the issues are far deeper than the PP coach.

[Toonage]

Hence my contingency plan. If it doesn't improve, Huska (or whoever) takes the reigns.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by madmike

Their 5v5 Corsi is actually excellent. Which may say more about the real value of Corsi than anything else.

Treliving wanted a team that's better in puck possession and that's what he got. The problem is they're bad at pretty much everything else.

Originally Posted by united

Puckon . net has them at 47.2%, good for 24th in the League. Corsica has them at 50.3%, good for 13th in the League. Neither is "excellent".

I don't know where this is coming from, but the Flames' ES corsi after 16 games is 51.1, which is 9th in the NHL. Which isn't "excellent", but it's pretty good.

They are an average shooting team at even strength so far, 7.45% for 16th in the NHL (they were 4th last year). However, they're 26th in the league at even strength save percentage, and that's what's killing them at evens. Their goals-for percentage is 23rd. Is that likely to improve? Well, given that Brian Elliott has an .882 save percentage so far, and given that his 5 year average is .925, you can either say "he's a fraud who was never any good and Hitchcock's system can make a bad AHL quality goalie look like an all-star", or you can say "he may not put up the .930 he did last year, but he's probably going to end up over .910". The latter seems more reasonable to me.

On the power play, they're 28th in shooting percentage. Given the number of quality finishers that they can put on the ice, that seems unsustainable. However, the other big problem is shot rate, which is 24th in the league on the power play - they're only putting 46.2 pucks on goal per 60 minutes of PP time. Washington, in first, puts 62.9 shots per 60 on goal on the PP. The Flames are 9th in the league in PP time on ice, so they're getting power plays, but they're being hurt by a combination of not doing enough when they get the opportunities, and not getting bounces.

They're also 9th in the NHL at PK time on ice, which could be better. They're average at preventing shots when on the PK (12th in the NHL), but those shots are going in at a high rate. The .810 team PK save percentage is second worst in the league, which is part of the same story on goaltending. Elliott averages around .890 shorthanded, so again, seems likely that this improves and the PK starts looking a bit better as the season goes along.

So here's the upshot of all of that. If you believe the numbers, it's pretty likely that the Flames' shooting percentage, both at evens and on the PP, will increase (they were 8.15 and 12.39 last year respectively), but they really need to get more pucks to the net on the power play. They've mostly been hurt by goaltending, as they were last year, but the difference is this year that the numbers Johnson and Elliott have put up have been well below their career averages, so there's reason to think that will improve, too. They should be a better team than the results they've been getting so far, and the numbers suggest that they in fact are better than those results. It's reasonable to expect them to start getting more wins, but they're still probably not good enough to overcome how bad this start has been.

[CaptainCrunch]

At the end of the day, its a hockey team I don't play for so I'm never going to panic, I'm going to lose my ability to take time to watch it.

So no for me its not time to panic.

for the Flames its never time to panic.

Cliff Fletcher once said that you don't make trades when your hockey team is struggling, because your going to pull the trigger on a panic deal that will hurt you. You wait until things stabilize and then you make changes.

I think the Flames have learned their lesson a few times about hiring an inexperienced coach or one without much of a track record. They did it with Gilbert (who I liked) they did it with playfair and now they've done it with GG.

The time for a teaching coach for a young team where he teaches systems and gently brings a young core along is past. This should have been the time to either bring in a absolute monster who raises expectations and pushes this team beyond their envelope or keep Bob who was a tyrant and fill his staff out with a players coach to sooth hurt feelings and a tactical genius.

I'm feeling like GG who probably has a good head for hockey tactics is lacking in the absolute kicking of a$$ level and we're missing it because it looks like this group of players is either incapable or doesn't want to play this system at full speed.

Is it time to panic and fire the coach 18 games it? Folks I hate to break it to you but it ain't going to happen. He's going to get this year and 20 games of next year to get this stuff figured out.

[burn_baby_burn]

Is it hard to hire quality coaches in Calgary? I mean, who really wants to move here? Has beens that are looking for any chance they can get? Or young inexperienced coaches who can't get a shot anywhere else? If you had a chance to coach in Chicago or Tampa Bay, why would you ever consider Calgary?

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by burn_baby_burn

Is it hard to hire quality coaches in Calgary? I mean, who really wants to move here? Has beens that are looking for any chance they can get? Or young inexperienced coaches who can't get a shot anywhere else? If you had a chance to coach in Chicago or Tampa Bay, why would you ever consider Calgary?

There's only 30 (31 soon enough I guess) jobs in the NHL. You want to coach in the league, you take the job in Calgary. Or Columbus, or Edmonton or wherever.
If it seems like its difficult to attract big name coaches, thats probably more on ownership and what they're willing to pay.