Pronman: Flames 9th ranked prospect pool

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

After that, there is a whole lot of really good depth. Guys like Kulak and Wotherspoon who look like they could actually end up being top 4 defencemen down the road. Fox who has high upside but is a bit more of a question mark at the moment. Dube (who I think people will actually start to really notice next season in junior). I won't mention all of them, but (IMO) the list is fairly exhaustive.

What I don't get is the Oilers. They really don't have a lot. They have one blue-chipper that I really like, and after that there is a big drop off. I don't think they have a guy that should be ranked in the 'B' class - most of their prospects do seem more like depth types to me, but maybe they do have a couple.

I think its really pretty tough to tell. I mean you consider guys like Kulak and Wotherspoon future top four guys but they are 22 and 23 and they haven't killed it in the AHL or established themselves in the NHL. Are they any different than Osterle, Musil, or Reinhart?

Are Andersson, and Kylington any better than Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear?

I don't think anyone posting on a fan forum has any idea really.

[JiriHrdina]

that is true, and I think that saying Wotherspoon and Kulak are top 4 is a stretch.
I think they are long shots to be full time NHLers at best, and probably top out as final pairing guys.
I do think though that Andersson and Kylington are a notch above Jones and Bear. I view those guys in the same bucket as Musil, Osterle, Wotherspoon, Kulak, etc.

Reinhart is the wild card. Dude should be better than he is.

[Weitz]

I dunno Bear had a more productive year and better playoffs than Andersson and is 8 months younger.

[JiriHrdina]

He's under-sized. I think he was good value for a fifth round pick, but he's a long shot to make that NHL at all, let alone have an impact.
And keep in mind I'm not a big Andersson fan. A little bit fat. A little bit lazy - to quote Loob. That concerns me.
But I think he's overall a better prospect than Ethan "Panda" Bear.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

that is true, and I think that saying Wotherspoon and Kulak are top 4 is a stretch.
I think they are long shots to be full time NHLers at best, and probably top out as final pairing guys.
I do think though that Andersson and Kylington are a notch above Jones and Bear. I view those guys in the same bucket as Musil, Osterle, Wotherspoon, Kulak, etc.

Reinhart is the wild card. Dude should be better than he is.

If you want to put Andersson and Kylington ahead based on draft position that fine.

I really just don't see much separation between them and Jones/Bear in their post draft season.

I mean none of us have seen them go head to head against each other so its pretty academic at this point.

[Weitz]

Isn't Anderson only an inch taller?

[JiriHrdina]

Two inches I think and about 20 pounds.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

If you want to put Andersson and Kylington ahead based on draft position that fine.

I really just don't see much separation between them and Jones/Bear in their post draft season.

I mean none of us have seen them go head to head against each other so its pretty academic at this point.

It is but you are talking about a material difference in draft position just over a year later. So it counts for somethjng at this point.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Are Andersson, and Kylington any better than Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear?

Kylington, aside from his high-end hockey skill/sense (which is damn impressive) - there are good skaters, and there are elite skaters. I doubt there are four better-skating prospects than Kylington out there. It's a year after his draft and I, someone who was originally iffy on taking him at 15, am now dumbfounded that he wasn't taken at 8 or 9 right after Ivan Provorov and Zach Werenski. Kid is a blue chip prospect. I doubt many here would trade him for guys like Chabot, Zboril, Juulsen, and Larsson who were all taken in the 2015 1st round.

Andersson is a beefy body with good skating and excellent hockey sense. I was not sold on him until I saw him skate miles in the playoffs... there is legitimate top pairing potential there even if that's not the objective for him. He's not just an offensive Dman, he's a physical, smooth-skating two-way Dman. Guys with his all-around package... basically you're talking about a guy in the 'style' of Mark Giordano, Justin Faulk, Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty. That's more than just a defenseman who puts up points. Teams are always looking for guys like that who can influence the game in other ways. I would not go as far as to call him a blue chip prospect, but I would say he's as close as an unfit player can get to that status.

I think Bear is a great prospect, but he's a great prospect like Hickey and Fox are great prospects. 'A' prospects I suppose you could call this group.

I also think Jones is a very good prospect, but he's a very good prospect like Kulak is a very good prospect. A- or B+ prospects I suppose.

You're correct though, that Wotherspoon is not a high likelyhood top 4 D prospect... it's obviously possible but yes there's some merit to your argument that he's closer to the likes of Reinhart, Oesterle et al... classic B prospects But I would argue his NHL stint this year was more effective than either of those individual players' NHL stints were. Although Small sample size, yes.

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

My guess is our failure rate from junior to pro is relatively consistent with the league average.

Actually the Flames could only wish to be average. They are not even close. In quality and quantity.

990 players played at least one game in the NHL last season. 19 of them were developed by the Flames AHL affiliate. That's less than 2%.

Giordano, Backlund, Brodie, Granlund, Baertschi, Ferland, Jooris, Prust, Bouma, Nystrom, Wotherspoon, Seiloff, Ramage, Agostino, Kylington, Poirier, Kulak, McElhinney and Ortio. Only Giordano was in the top 100 in scoring and 6 or 7 of these guys likely will not be in the league this year.

To put that into perspective, 17 Hitmen alumni played in the league last year. So, if you are on the Hitmen, you are almost as likely to go into the NHL as a player in Stockton is. And you are more likely to be an impact player.

As for Pronmans 2016 prospect rankings it will be very interesting to have a look in 5 years. I like Nashville (10), Detroit (18) and San Jose (24). I know almost nothing about their prospects but I do know that those teams have a proven reputation for graduating players from their AHL team into the NHL. I'm really starting to think that if you exclude the really high end players, development is even more important than drafting.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

Actually the Flames could only wish to be average. They are not even close. In quality and quantity.

990 players played at least one game in the NHL last season. 19 of them were developed by the Flames AHL affiliate. That's less than 2%...

How many of the 990 players who played last year played in the AHL? This seems to me like a terribly flawed method for tracking development.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Disagree. Jankowski has exciting potential. We're extremely deep in blue liners which some may not find exciting but the depth there is tremendous with Andersson, Kylington, Hickey, Wotherspoon, Kulak, etc. Shinkaruk and Poirier both still have some promise. Besides Gillies we also have highly touted goalies in Mason McDonald and Tyler Parsons. Plenty of other significant depth that I haven't even touched on.

Our depth now is still much greater than it was for most of the past 20 years. You seem to have taken an ultra pessimistic stance or perhaps you're just not well informed about these prospects? I dunno.

Pfft! Luxury! Give me 'no-one but Eric Nystrom' any day!

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

How many of the 990 players who played last year played in the AHL? This seems to me like a terribly flawed method for tracking development.

831. If you want to see what a teams record of graduating players from the AHL to the NHL is then a good place to start would be to just look at that.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Who the Canucks took should not be the sole determination of which prospect is better. I think Tkachuk is a better prospect regardless of who the Canucks took

So following your logic Tkachuk is as much better of a prospect over Juolevi as Boeser is over Jankowski?

Boeser just had a a 18 year old season that was better than Gaudreau's 18 and 19 year old seasons.

I love that the Flames got Tkachuk where they did and he really fits the Flames glaring need but I could see where there would be an argument on the BPA level that Boeser is a a lot closer to a Tkachuk level prospect than a Jankowski level.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I dunno Bear had a more productive year and better playoffs than Andersson and is 8 months younger.

You are joking though right?

Andersson has been the highest scoring OHL defenseman for 2 years straight now.

Ethan Bear was the 5th highest scoring WHL defenseman last season and 27th highest scoring 2 years ago.

How do you consider it a more productive year?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

You are joking though right?

Andersson has been the highest scoring OHL defenseman for 2 years straight now.

Ethan Bear was the 5th highest scoring WHL defenseman last season and 27th highest scoring 2 years ago.

How do you consider it a more productive year?

He produced more goals/points in the regular season and playoffs?

He was also far and away the most productive in the WHL in the playoffs.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Weitz

He produced more goals/points in the regular season and playoffs?

He was also far and away the most productive in the WHL in the playoffs.

Let's compare forward scoring between the QMJHL and WHL while we're at it...

You need to compare stats within their respective leagues not across leagues.

Andersson is the highest scoring OHL defender the past 2 years. Did you not read this statement? Understand it?

Basically, he's a full tier above your Ethan Bear.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

831. If you want to see what a teams record of graduating players from the AHL to the NHL is then a good place to start would be to just look at that.

I'm curious where you found these numbers. I've tried to find these kind of stats before and couldn't find any sites with that information.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Exactly.

Rasmus Andersson lead defensmen in scoring in his leauge. Ethan Bear had a great year but he finished 5th in his league, eight points back of the leader. You can't just strip away all context.

And how did we get to this boring Flames prospect vs Oiler prospect thing anyways. Who cares about Ethan Bear.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So following your logic Tkachuk is as much better of a prospect over Juolevi as Boeser is over Jankowski?

Boeser just had a a 18 year old season that was better than Gaudreau's 18 and 19 year old seasons.

I love that the Flames got Tkachuk where they did and he really fits the Flames glaring need but I could see where there would be an argument on the BPA level that Boeser is a a lot closer to a Tkachuk level prospect than a Jankowski level.

Yes I believe Boeser is a better prospect than Jankowski.
I don't think he's close to Tkachuk but overall i would rank the 6 across both organizations as follows:

1. Tkachuk
2. Joe Levi
3. Boeser
4. Jankowski
5. Gillies
6. Demko

that's how I see it.

I don't even know what you are arguing. I basically said that you could make an argument to put the Cancuks ahead but I give it to the Flames by a hair. So are we arguing about the thickness of that hair?