How far off are the Calgary Flames from cup contending status?

[Benched]

as of this year we should be making the playoffs perennially.

Once that's happening we'll see how we stack up, and if we can be 'contenders'. but for now we're still in the 'make the playoffs every year' step. Once we get to the dance every year we'll see if we can take the next step to be one of the favorites/contenders/teams with expectations to win it all.


This year we could surprise and go deep.
This year we could stumble again and just fall short of even making the playoffs.

Very interesting how we do this year. Last year of the fluctuating expectations IMO. From here on out it's advance forward, no more up-down-up-down.

[united]

Depends on goaltending. The Flames are in good hands for the upcoming season, but beyond that there is only hope in Gillies. If Gillies isn't ready and the Flames return to Ramo-level goaltending it could be a number of years - if they are able to re-sign Elliott and/or have Gillies become ready, as early as two seasons from now.

Additionally, next season the Flames lose Bollig, Wideman, Smid, and Engelland. Instead of over-paying for these types of players, replace them with cheap effective options and invest the money elsewhere.

[djsFlames]

2 seasons if all goes according to plan.

Need upgrades for Stajan, Bollig, Wideman and Engelland. If we cut the fat out and get some guys that can contribute positively every odd night that are faster than those guys then as a whole we'll get better. I'm more concerned about depth than our core, which will be just fine with some more strides made.

[Weitz]

Depending on the Gaudreau and Monahan contracts things could get interesting by 2020-2021 salary wise.

I suspect the window opens 2018-2019 to be true contenders. A few years of playoff experience prior.

[polak]

It all depends on Bennett and Tkachuk.

If Bennett follows a similar trajectory to Monahan and Tkachuk does the same then we'll be contending in a year or two.

It Bennett plateaus at a 40 point guy and Tkachuk does the same then we'll probably need to restart the rebuild and will regretting all of those rebuild jokes we made about other teams...

[Robbob]

To use the Brian Burke crawl, walk, run analogy. This year will be the the first year in the walk phase IMO. I think the previous years still had a lot to do with them still learning what is needed to win. With what the young core has learned (make no mistake the playoff appearance was huge for that development, but was a very opportunistic situation) and the changes the that management has made (namely the back end), I do think they have a chance to make the playoffs this year.

You have to start making it to the playoffs in successive years before you can say you have made it to the run stage. The Flames aren't there right now and that won't be known for at least three year.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by polak

It all depends on Bennett and Tkachuk.

If Bennett follows a similar trajectory to Monahan and Tkachuk does the same then we'll be contending in a year or two.

It Bennett plateaus at a 40 point guy and Tkachuk does the same then we'll probably need to restart the rebuild and will regretting all of those rebuild jokes we made about other teams...

You should go back to your old avatar of the sad face.

Or use this one:

Spoiler!

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It makes no sense to talk about this in "years". None whatsoever. There's only one question to ask: what do the Flames need?

Most of the development needs to happen at forward. They're deeper at forward than they were, but outside of Gaudreau and to some extent Monahan, the top end quality hasn't arrived yet in spite of some potential waiting in the wings. They need either a high-end #1 center (which Monahan may become), or a second #1-center-quality guy to play 2nd line (which Bennett may become). They need a high end scoring RW. They need Matt Tkachuk to become a legitimate top 6 quality scoring forward, or for someone else to do so in his place (say, if Shinkaruk takes a big leap forward).

On defense, they're in good shape. They just need Hamilton to get back to at least the level he was in in Boston, which is probably a safe bet, and they need to replace Wideman with a solid second pairing guy. The 6-8 holes on the blue line shouldn't be too difficult to fill; presumably one of Nakladal or Jokipakka will slot in there, and depth D is available in free agency as long as you don't overspend on it (cough Engelland cough).

They then need above league average quality netminding. Top-five quality isn't required, just above league average and they'll be in striking distance. They're taking a shot with Elliot this year to see if he can provide it, but he's 31, so it's a stopgap at best. However, the goalie market is such currently that you can find good netminders on the cheap - the problem is that almost no one is guaranteed to actually work out once they get here. Still, this seems like less of a challenge.

That is what is needed before contender status can begin to be talked about. Of course, none of this matters if Glen Gulutzan can't put together a system that works with the corps he has.

[polak]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

You should go back to your old avatar of the sad face.

Or use this one:

Spoiler!

I gave two alternatives. Bennett shouldn't plateau so the first, happy one, is the more likely scenario.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by polak

It all depends on Bennett and Tkachuk.

If Bennett follows a similar trajectory to Monahan and Tkachuk does the same then we'll be contending in a year or two.

It Bennett plateaus at a 40 point guy and Tkachuk does the same then we'll probably need to restart the rebuild and will regretting all of those rebuild jokes we made about other teams...

It seems that what people are looking for is the Oilers or Islanders dynasty teams..... NOT going to happen.

There is a salary cap that prevents this. The best teams have 2 maybe 3 guys that will put up 60+ pts.

If Backlund is a 45-50 pt guy then the Flames will be successful with Bennett, Brouwer, Frolik and eventually Tkachuk being 40 pt guys.

Hard to see how and why Bennett will plateau at 40 pts.

[locsofblu]

Nobody really knows. This team could end up pulling a 2004 run for all we know. I expect us to be in the playoff picture this year though.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by polak

It all depends on Bennett and Tkachuk.

If Bennett follows a similar trajectory to Monahan and Tkachuk does the same then we'll be contending in a year or two.

It Bennett plateaus at a 40 point guy and Tkachuk does the same then we'll probably need to restart the rebuild and will regretting all of those rebuild jokes we made about other teams...

If Bennett plateaus as a 40 point guy I'll probably put my head in the oven.

[dabrit]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

If Gulutzan is a good coach and two wingers not named Gaudreau, Frolik, or Brouwer can solidify themselves as quality top 9 options, I don't see why they couldn't make a deep playoff run this year.

If Gulutzan is a bad coach and the scoring depth ends up not living up to expectations, they won't be competitive unless some major changes (roster re-tool, management overhaul) happen.

Of course this is all assuming they've found a good short and long term goalie solution with Elliot.

The Flames right now have an average offense, upper average defense (elite top 3, question mark bottom 3), a question mark goalie, and a question mark coach.

I hope the questions have the right answers.

Average Offense?? They finished in the top 5 for goals scored last year lol. That is not average sir.

everything else I guess I agreed with.

[bubbsy]

too many question marks, with the potential for answers in the system hopefully....

1. Dependable offense outside of just Gaudreau and the top line.
- Potential Solutions: Bennet, Tkatchuk adding top6 scoring punch
- Depth: Ferland, shinkaruk, poirier, klimchuk, who can come in and provide scoring depth?
- Do 'vets' stick and continue providing dependable offense as we wait on the above prospects to hit their stride (ie. does the age factor decline their offense at a rate where they are creating new holes to be filled). Frolik, Brower, backlund...

2. Dependable top 4 Defense aside from Brodie being a sure thing top pairing dman over the next X years
Question marks:
- at what stage does Gio ramp down to a 2nd pairing and further dman?
- can hamilton drive the 2nd pairing on his own now? What is his peak progression in the next x years (1st pairing, 2nd pairing, 3rd pairing/pp specialist)
Potential solutions:
- Who of Kylington, Andersson, Hickey, Wotherspoon, kulak,culkin, etc, make it to the big leagues over the next 3 or so seasons? Do any of them take a top 2 or top4 spots??

3. Goaltending:
- are the above 2 concerns coming thru in flying colours in the short term, while the team does seem to have a decent tandem that could be capable of providing playoff and contending level goaltending?
- if not, and there is a progression time required for the above possible solutions, is it fair to assume any prospects could come in and become fulltime starters at the NHL level within 3 years?

factors that are not possible to predict:
1) what free agents can the afford and land?
2) what trades can management muster?
3) how does the expansion draft change the entire roster management environment?
4) of course, having a brodie/gaudreau type late rounder having impacts in the short term, or on the flip side, a 1st round pick like bennet/tkatchuk flopping further muddy the crystal ball.....

[polak]

Originally Posted by dabrit

Average Offense?? They finished in the top 5 for goals scored last year lol. That is not average sir.

everything else I guess I agreed with.

They also finished last in GAA. Tons of that was goaltending yes, but a lot of that was terrible defensive play by our entire team due to Hartleys system. That will change. We will no longer be scoring as much on the breakout with the defense jumping into the play. Think about how hard of a time this team had scoring off the cycle.

I expect us to be middle of the pack.

[dabrit]

Originally Posted by polak

They also finished last in GAA. Tons of that was goaltending yes, but a lot of that was terrible defensive play by our entire team due to Hartleys system. That will change. We will no longer be scoring as much on the breakout with the defense jumping into the play. Think about how hard of a time this team had scoring off the cycle.

I expect us to be middle of the pack.

We weren't average at scoring last year that was my point. 5th in goals for.

I highly doubt Gulutzan is going to tell our offense minded Dman who have offensive skill to no longer contribute that would just be silly.

Given that Gaudreau likely has another gear in him and Bennett will be better I highly doubt our scoring is going to go down

[CliffFletcher]

Mediocrity is within sight. Contender status is another 2-3 years down the road, when the young core has had time to develop, and some bad contracts are off the books.

[Enoch Root]

As CHL said, it isn't about years, it's about pieces.

They have part of a very good core, but they are still awaiting other parts. They become contenders IMO when 2 or 3 more guys step up to the next level.

The most likely / most important are pretty obvious:

Bennett
Tkachuk
Hamilton

Hamilton is already close, and is a solid #3. But he can, and most likely will, take another step. When he does, they have their core on defense, and are looking at complementary pieces (of which they have many potential candidates).

Bennett is the most important, because you have to have 2 great Cs. He could take a huge leap this year, at which point they become a solid playoff team. Or he could take a few years to really get there. Or, he never does. Easily the most important piece and biggest question.

Tkachuk is also a pretty big factor because they also need at least one more top forward (and at least two to be a powerhouse). Tkachuk is the most likely bet, but there are also other candidates. Again, do we see that in a year? Two? Longer?

Then there is the wildcard of other possible breakouts. If any of Shinkaruk, Poirier, Ferland, Pribyl, Jankowski, Mangiapane, or someone else takes a big jump and becomes a serious top 6 forward, then the Flames are instantly a deep team (assuming Bennett is also there).

I think goaltending should be solid. We won't know untl the season gets going of course, but we should have the guys in place that will keep us competitive until one of the young guys blossoms into a true #1. How long will that take? Pointless to even guess. But I think the good news is that we should be just fine until that happens.

So lots of questions. But also lots of potential answers.

Predicting how long that will take is anyone's guess. But it is pretty easy to see what pieces we need. And it should be fun (and hopefully not a very long time) watching them emerge.

To answer the OP, I'll say that they are 'contenders' in 2017/18 (i.e. legitimate playoff team). And emerging as cup contenders the following year.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I hope at least in another year or two

[Huntingwhale]

I still think they are a ways off. Fortunately, we have a GM who recognizes the pieces we need and once those players are identified, our GM has a great ability to go out and get them.

I'm not going to predict when the Flames will be contenders, if ever. Just because you go through a rebuild does not guarantee success. For as many team as there are that blow it up like we did and build from the bottom up that are successful, there twice as many that fail.

And while it's easy to point at a graph and say ''this many years losing equals where to go but up now!" we have to consider that there are 29 other teams around the league trying to prevent us from winning on any given night. The Flames can be trending upwards, but we will need other teams to trend down. The Flames simply aren't strong enough like LA or St. Louis to be able to dominate whomever the opponent is. Until proven otherwise, we need other teams to start trending down.

However the trump card in all of this is our goaltending. If Elliot/Johnson can become a magical duo, then we have a great shot at making the playoffs and perhaps having a decent run. But to me a contending team is a team like the Caps or Hawks, who have the ability to beat any team on any given night and are in the legit conversation to win the cup. The Flames realistically aren't close at all. The hope is there. The potential is coming along. But we've got a long ways to go.

Having said all that, I will consider this rebuild done and complete when we can finally beat Anaheim at the Honda Centre!