The NHL Needs to Embrace the Gold Plan

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think this is by far the best way to go. All this lottery and adjusting for the Oilers just complicates things.

I think the rolling dumpster fire that is the oilers becomes its own cautionary warning for other teams, every time someone brings up the Blackhawks as an example of how you have to suck to build a good team someone else brings up the oilers as a reason not to.

In the end as long as the league has a good salary cap every team, with the exception of the oilers, can assume they will have a shot at the cup at some point in the near or further future.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Make it simple.

If you have the number 1 pick one year, the highest you can draft the next year is 6th

If you draft bottom 6 5 years in a row then the next year you draft 30th

I think with this though, you would just see teams like the Oilers trading down slightly in the first round instead of picking 6th.

[Savvy27]

Discouraging tanking is only one aspect of the plan... saying that you're not worried about tanking this season isn't an explanation for why you think the plan is bad. Could someone explain why they disagree that the games would be more fun to watch if the gold plan standings were implemented?

[Jacks]

This idea has been debated at least 1/2 dozen times before. I personally don't like the idea at all. It would throw a loop into the trade deadline for sure, teams wouldn't be as likely to trade away their expiring contracts if it will hurt their draft odds possibly?

Better idea, set the lottery odds on trade deadline day.

[This post is terrible]

I've been thinking about my own Anti-tank rule mechanic. I call it the "Loser Line" aka the Oilers Standard

The NHL would wait till, say just before the trade deadline. The NHL would then evaluate the standings, taking in to account where teams are at the bottom. The NHL would then select an end of season point total that all teams should have a reasonable chance of making. Teams that do not end season equal to or above this point total would simply be removed from the lottery. The punishment would only result in being pushed back 3 spots in the Draft.

There are some flaws like what if one team is significantly worse than the rest, the "loser line" would then only apply to them and teams could still tank for second last, but the lottery would still be there.

During seasons where a handful of teams are close to the bottom is where it gets interesting. Just an idea I was kicking around.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I don't think it is a bad plan, but I don't see it fixing much of anything. I would be interested is seeing what the gold plan standings are. Can someone link that? I didn't see it in the Down goes Brown story.
My biggest problem is that most teams aren't mathematically eliminated until really late. As such, there is only a handful of games that would count, and that is too small a sample size to determine the draft order, in my opinion. Factor in scheduling and injury issues, and I think the order might be close to random.
Further, in yet another attempt to create an oiler rule, this one would probably help them as well. Terrible when it matters, they will be eliminated early and only then start picking up more points. Yakapov could be like a shoot-out specialist. Useless in the regular games, but he can light it up in March, when the playoffs are no longer a possibility.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think the rolling dumpster fire that is the oilers becomes its own cautionary warning for other teams, every time someone brings up the Blackhawks as an example of how you have to suck to build a good team someone else brings up the oilers as a reason not to.

In the end as long as the league has a good salary cap every team, with the exception of the oilers, can assume they will have a shot at the cup at some point in the near or further future.

I agree. I don't see how anyone can think actively tanking is a good idea when you look at the Oilers. I think their the best example of seemingly doing it on purpose, where the others (Hawks, Kings) were just straight up bad for a few years. And if someone thinks that their high picks were the only reasons they have their Cups, well they're just wrong.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Teams will still tank even under this plan - if anything, they will tank earlier.

Sell-off earlier in the year. Sign some journeymen NHL'ers and hide them in the AHL. Call these up instead of the younger prospects, just to get a few more wins.

If there is a system, it can be defeated.

The spirit of the draft is not to reward teams - it is to create parity by having the worst teams draft the highest quality of prospects.

I think the lottery system is a decent way to address that so far. I don't even care so much if a team like Buffalo decides to tank hard one year. Hey, they run the risk of losing out on a lot of money due to fan apathy, and there is no guaranteed carrot at the end of it. However, they will still draft fairly high and help build themselves back up.

The NHL just needs to make the rule of 'x' amount of top 3 or top 5 picks within 'x' amount of years. To me, that is the biggest problem. The occasional team being built for the purpose of failure - well, doesn't bother me too much, and they often reap what they sow anyways.

[Itse]

It actually seems to me that the current system might already be doing what it's supposed to.

- Winnipeg is clearly not tanking, they've collected points in 5 of their last 6 games and have just beaten three playoff teams in a row.
- Vancouver clearly isn't tanking, you don't accidentally sweep California on the road while trying to lose.
- Calgary clearly isn't tanking, we've watched the games. You don't accidentally crush two teams really close to you in standings by 4-5 goals while trying to lose.
- Edmonton most likely isn't tanking. They've just recently beaten Vancouver twice, who are one of the teams threatening to beat them to the bottom. They also beat San Jose on the road recently, which isn't easy. They just suck.
- Toronto? Yeah maybe they're tanking. But they also really did need to be blown up. Plus they've had some serious injuries.
- Columbus? Maybe, don't know. They've won 2 out of last three including a 5-1 whooping of Toronto.

So at worst I think you have like 1-2 teams that are tanking, which means it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

The problem is really just Edmonton always winning the damned lottery. That, and having to feel ambiguous about your team winning.

The latter is the main reason why I would like the 1-14 positions just be randomized. The draft position race just bugs me, I don't want it to be a thing at all.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

So at worst I think you have like 1-2 teams that are tanking, which means it doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

The problem isn't that teams tank, because I think for the most part they don't intentionally tank (let's disregard the McDavid year cause that was a bit abnormal.) The problem is that it makes fans and media conflicted about cheering on their team. I WANT to cheer the Flames on down the stretch in an offseason. But because I'm a very long view fan and I recognize the importance of the draft it makes it hard for me to cheer for wins in a lost season. It makes part of me want them to lose because that can be the better outcome for the longterm future of the team.

The NHL should not be run in a way that fans should want their team to lose. That's backwards and stupid.

[HotHotHeat]

The Oilers are the only reason this is so front of mind in the hockey world. No one ever expected a team to be this no good for so long. The solution? Fold the organization. That's how you fix the draft.

[Yamer]

Instead of flat points, they could do a relative point % from time of elimination.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The problem isn't that teams tank, because I think for the most part they don't intentionally tank (let's disregard the McDavid year cause that was a bit abnormal.) The problem is that it makes fans and media conflicted about cheering on their team. I WANT to cheer the Flames on down the stretch in an offseason. But because I'm a very long view fan and I recognize the importance of the draft it makes it hard for me to cheer for wins in a lost season. It makes part of me want them to lose because that can be the better outcome for the longterm future of the team.

The NHL should not be run in a way that fans should want their team to lose. That's backwards and stupid.

Here's my question about this mindset, how little of a difference in percentages of the lottery will get you to not be conflicted? As it stands, the chances of winning the lottery really don't change a whole lot. Even if you are the very worst team, there's only a 20% of getting that spot. Yeah it's better than everyone else, but it still leaves an 80% chance of not. So what is the percentages that will get someone such as yourself to not cheer for losses? To me, those percentages are not different enough for me to care about them moving from 6th to 3rd for example.

[DazzlinDino]

How about keeping the current draft system and making it so if you win the #1 draft lottery
you can't pick higher than your last draft for 5 years. So this way you can pick 2nd 3rd 4th or 5th if you finish last every year. This way there is enough pie to go around for all teams that need to rebuild.

For example you pick 1st one year so for the next years the highest you can pick is 2nd. If you tank every year then the highest you can pick is 2nd 3rd 4th or 5th depending on where you finished last season.

After 5 years if you still suck then your eligible to pick 1st, but if your not you automatically get bumped down to your designated spot even if you win the draft lottery.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The problem isn't that teams tank, because I think for the most part they don't intentionally tank (let's disregard the McDavid year cause that was a bit abnormal.) The problem is that it makes fans and media conflicted about cheering on their team. I WANT to cheer the Flames on down the stretch in an offseason. But because I'm a very long view fan and I recognize the importance of the draft it makes it hard for me to cheer for wins in a lost season. It makes part of me want them to lose because that can be the better outcome for the longterm future of the team.

The NHL should not be run in a way that fans should want their team to lose. That's backwards and stupid.

Yeah, I tried to sneak edit that into my post too. I very much agree.

Also, I'm not terribly interested in seeing the best players go to terrible teams. To me it would be pretty cool if a bubble team could get an occasional boost from a really great prospect.

I really think just randomizing the picks would be best, or maybe with an extra oiler rule to prevent the top picks constantly going to the same teams. Perennial non-playoff teams would still over time get higher draft picks than bubble teams or regular playoff teams, but they couldn't just expect for their Next Saviour Draft Pick to come and save them.

[Demetric]

when is a team tanking vs just really really bad?

[bob-loblaw]

One way out thought. When the league expands to 32 teams, have a 3-on-3 tournament like the all-star game right after the season ends for the bottom 16 teams. Teams are ranked by who scores the most goals. It could actually be pretty cool.

Or, re-rank the draft order based on which non-playoff team has the best record against the other non-playoff teams. That should give incentive to lower-standing teams playing against each other, particularly at the end of the season.

[btimbit]

Sounds good in theory, but I don't like it. I'd rather just limit the amount of times one team can pick 1st overall, and maybe get rid of the weighted lottery, having all bottom 5 teams an even chance at getting a top 3 pick.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Here's my question about this mindset, how little of a difference in percentages of the lottery will get you to not be conflicted? As it stands, the chances of winning the lottery really don't change a whole lot. Even if you are the very worst team, there's only a 20% of getting that spot. Yeah it's better than everyone else, but it still leaves an 80% chance of not. So what is the percentages that will get someone such as yourself to not cheer for losses? To me, those percentages are not different enough for me to care about them moving from 6th to 3rd for example.

Good question. I'm not sure. I think what they did helps the issue, certainly finishing lower isn't as important as it was previously. That said when I look at the spread of the odds finishing 3rd and 6th last currently you'd still much, much rather finish lower.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

I think the change that would make me not care as much is if all 14 spots were decided by lottery. You can fall 3 spots right now and this is key. Right now 30th place is guaranteed a top 4 pick. Right now 29th place is guaranteed a top 5 pick. 28th is guaranteed a top 6 pick. It's those guarantees that are so valuable. Especially if a draft really dropped off after the top 4 or 5 players. Lucky for us this year it doesn't drop off right away. If you could fall any amount of spots and the odds were flatter then I wouldn't really care. But that system might not be seen as fair.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Demetric

when is a team tanking vs just really really bad?

Does it matter? Some teams need incentive to try; Seems when the oilers get an injury they throw in the towel for the rest of the season (which is every year).