Gary Lawless on the 7 Canadian teams

[CaptainYooh]

...The UFA goalie market isn’t deep, with Cam Ward and James Reimer being the most interesting names...

Are there any good goalies becoming available next year other than Ben Bishop through UFA? I wonder if would be worth it to wait and tough it out next season with Ortio as a starter goalie.

[Resolute 14]

Well, it's all relative. If we improved 25% in wins, we'd be battling Minnesota for the last wildcard right now. The Oilers are just coming from so far back that they needed a Terry Jones-esque 30 point improvement just to become relevant.

[Weitz]

Yup, the suckiest of the suck.

[GranteedEV]

Some serious Jets homerism:

Certainly Canada’s most underperforming team this season and maybe the biggest disappointment in the entire league. From 99 points in the Central Division and a playoff berth to membership in the lottery pick race in a single season.

lol. The same bubble team minus Frolik that barely squeezed into the playoffs on hot goaltending (Pavelec had a .944 SV% in the final 15 games of the season) is underperforming?

I mean, if the FLames take the last game of last season seriously, the Jets are the proverbial "8th seed" in last year's west.

The question for the Jets: Was this an anomaly? Lack of discipline sunk this team. Winnipeg’s power-play goal differential was second worst in the NHL at -22. It killed them.

It's a question, but the question? The Jets have 1383 penalties taken over the past FOUR seasons. The only team with more is the Flyers at 1388. Compare to the Flames at 1058, the third-least over that same four year span.

The Jets need to be better in goal, but prospect Connor Hellebuyck showed he’s on the verge with a .918 save percentage in his 26 games this season

...

the jury is still out on Jacob Markstrom.

Markstrom has a .918 save percentage in 31 games.

The Jets will have competition for roster spots next year and should be much better.

Every team has competition for roster spots next year. Who do they have coming in that will make them much better? Kyle Connor is a good player but also coming from a NCAA team notorious for poor development of NHL prospects (guys have to spend time in the minors to catch up).

The question for them is can they close the gap on the rest of the Central? It’s still the toughest division in hockey.

...And he closes with the weak divisional excuses. Like the Jets weren't 2-11-1 against such non-playoff out-of-division opponents like the Oilers, Sabres, Sens, 'Canes, and Flames. But nope, Central division is the easy cop-out.

[Southside]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Are there any good goalies becoming available next year other than Ben Bishop through UFA? I wonder if would be worth it to wait and tough it out next season with Ortio as a starter goalie.

NO! We went into this season with the same sort of attitude towards Ramo and Hiller. We need a bonafide starter. We cannot put another season at risk with an unknown or unproven starter in goal.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Southside

NO! We went into this season with the same sort of attitude towards Ramo and Hiller. We need a bonafide starter. We cannot put another season at risk with an unknown or unproven starter in goal.

Sure. But there is nobody available out there. Now what?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I agree - but the Flames were in a similar situation when they moved Iginla/Bouwmeester and it wasn't that long until they were in the playoffs. Just need to land one of the best forwards and one of the best defenseman in the league in the 4th round a few times

Yeah, no. The Canucks' situation is really not all that similar to the Flames in 2012, because there is really no practical way to trade the Sedins. Such an endeavour would require $12.0 m of cap space from the receiving team. Unlike the Flames with Iginla and Bouwmeester who had some freedom to deal both players, the Sedins must be traded together to the same team.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Sorry I meant higher in the standings. Like you I looked at Edmonton and saw they have a 0.012 higher save percentage but are still in 30th.

Of course it will result in a higher placement in the standings. The reason this didn't work for the Oilers is because the hole for them was so, SO deep to begin with: Great goaltending was enough for Edmonton to improve their goal differential by more than +40 goals. Unfortunately for them, that improvement resulted in them moving from absurdly historically bad to merely terrible.

The Flames are not even remotely historically bad, and are arguably not even terrible. Their hole is no where close to the depth of Edmonton's. The improvement they need to make is dramatically smaller.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Of course it will result in a higher placement in the standings. The reason this didn't work for the Oilers is because the hole for them was so, SO deep to begin with: Great goaltending was enough for Edmonton to improve their goal differential by more than +40 goals. Unfortunately for them, that improvement resulted in them moving from absurdly historically bad to merely terrible.

The Flames are not even remotely historically bad, and are arguably not even terrible. Their hole is no where close to the depth of Edmonton's. The improvement they need to make is dramatically smaller.

I just looked at Edmonton as I knew they were better save % wise this year.

Interestingly Vancouver improved their team save % by 0.003 this year and are far worse.

Calgary is in a different position as their goaltending is their biggest hole and is as mentioned earlier far and away worse in the NHL.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I just looked at Edmonton as I knew they were better save % wise this year.

Interestingly Vancouver improved their team save % by 0.003 this year and are far worse.

Calgary is in a different position as their goaltending is their biggest hole and is as mentioned earlier far and away worse in the NHL.

Which is why it is eminently sensible to conclude that an improved SP will result in an improved standing.

The Canucks are far worse because they are probably one of the least-offensively skilled teams in the NHL. They dropped by more than half-a-goal/game in their production from last year to this year, and are not likely to improve in that regard any time soon.

[TheScorpion]

Man, this Flames team really reminds me of the Stars a couple years ago.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Can't buy this.

Look at this: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...rcentage/2015/

See the bottom of that list. The team that .010 below everyone else. That's Calgary. The difference between Calgary and 29th (Columbus) is the same as 29th and 16th.

Great post, and it's a pretty reliable stat:


Teams out of playoffs in top 16:

New Jersey - 11th in Sv% 0.915 (9 points out of playoffs)
Buffalo - 12th 0.915 (14 points out of playoffs)
Canucks - 15th 0.913 (14 points out)
Colorado - 16th 0.913 (5 points out - 9th in west)


Teams in playoffs out of top 16:

Dallas - 26th 0.904
Nashville - 21st 0.906
San Jose - 20th 0.907
Detroit - 17th 0.910


Dallas is the only real outlier, and to some extent Buf and Van.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Great post, and it's a pretty reliable stat:


Teams out of playoffs in top 16:

New Jersey - 11th in Sv% 0.915 (9 points out of playoffs)
Buffalo - 12th 0.915 (14 points out of playoffs)
Canucks - 15th 0.913 (14 points out)
Colorado - 16th 0.913 (5 points out - 9th in west)


Teams in playoffs out of top 16:

Dallas - 26th 0.904
Nashville - 21st 0.906
San Jose - 20th 0.907
Detroit - 17th 0.910


Dallas is the only real outlier, and to some extent Buf and Van.

Wow, the correlation between team save percentage and team performance is remarkable strong.

On the bright side, it's kind of promising. Calgary could see vast improvement next year with better goaltending. It's not our only problem, but it's definitely a big one.

[powderjunkie]

A couple more years comparing playoff qualification vs. sv % differences:

2015 playoffs:

Teams out of playoffs in top 16:

Colorado - 5th in sv%
Boston - 6th in sv% (9th in east, missed by 2 pts)
New Jersey - 7th
Florida - 13th (10th in east, but 7 pts out)

In playoffs:

Vancouver - 17th
Tampa - 19th
Detroit - 21st
Anaheim - 24th


2014:

Washington - 6th (9th in east, 3 pts out)
Toronto - 9th
Buffalo - 10th
Arizona - 16th (9th in west, 2 pts out)

in playoffs:
Dallas - 18th
Philly - 19th
Detroit - 21st
Chicago - 25th


Only a couple real outliers each year...the only teams in the bottom 8 of sv % to make the playoffs were Chicago, Anaheim and Dallas this year.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I just looked at Edmonton as I knew they were better save % wise this year.

Interestingly Vancouver improved their team save % by 0.003 this year and are far worse.

Calgary is in a different position as their goaltending is their biggest hole and is as mentioned earlier far and away worse in the NHL.

Yeah, but they can't score goals now. Like at all.

[N-E-B]

It's refreshing to not see "1. Edmonton because McDavid" for once.