Tricky decisions for Treliving (LeBrun article)

[bucksmasher]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think you do roll the dice and move Russell, Hudler, Jones if they get a decent return. Adding 2 more 2nd round picks could be huge this summer. Last year the Flames used the picks to land Dougie nth is year they may have to use a pick to shed a bad contract to free up cap space to improve the players surrounding the core. As of today the free agent class is strong but we can't be a player if we still have Wideman, Raymond, Bollig, Smid, Engellend, Stajan, and Backlund all chewing up a big chunk of cap space.

Ummmmm NO NO NO NO NO!

Edit: not a first anyways

[Monahan For Mayor]

Turns out people do agree with me on Russell. I'd move out all of our UFAs if possible.

Russell is replaced with Nakladal.
Hudler will open a spot for someone, and who knows maybe Ferland can step up and take that spot full out.
Jones is replaced with Kenny Agostino.

[MarkGio]

For the fans its not a difficult decision, especially fans who were use to a meddling 8 to 10th team in the West. For a GM, however, its a tough decision. Picks take 4-6 years to pan out and most GMs don't have a job that long. He needs to win, as well as do the right thing.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by VANFLAMESFAN

I hate the message it sends the guys who have been busting their ass for 50 plus games that management would rather give up for a pick that could turn into trash than try and continue to fight what you have been fighting for all season.

I get the other side and know what people would respond to this. I just don't like or agree with it. To me, selling 2-3 veterans who can certainly add more than their replacements is management giving up and hoping for the best and I hate that mentality. Play to win in the moment and deal with your assets in the offseason.

Probably why I'd make a horrible GM.

I think you're onto something here. It doesn't get rid of Raymond either. Treliving needs to improve his offseason roster management, IMO. No more flyer contracts or deals that are "low risk" or "if he could regain his skills" etc.

Trading Glencross was the right move, don't get me wrong.

Honest question, have the Flames ever had one of their own picks retire after their entire hockey career as a Flame?

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yep those picks we got for Glencross sure turned into trash (part of Dougie Hamilton) and man giving up on the season really cost us there as we got to the 2nd round without him.

UFA status is a reality that Treliving deals with. He can lose players for nothing, sign them or he can trade them. 2nd and 3rd round picks are far from trash. He can use them to pick excellent prospects or he could trade them for established NHLers. They are a valuable commodity, the exact opposite of trash in fact. Assuming they are trash is a slap to the face of our scouts who have shown themselves to be quite solid in the past 5 drafts IMO.

Losing all our UFAs for nothing and still missing the playoffs = more trash than trading them for picks.

I doubt most would advocate trading away all our UFAs if we're still in the playoff race but its starting to look like we'll fall out and some of the guys we're talking about trading we're not going to be significantly worse off without. And dealing guys near the end of the season allows us to audition young players for the season after which can be very useful in the long term development of said players and the continuing progression of the team. Right now we've got 7 guys who can play top 6 defense in the NHL and a guy in the minors who can probably play top 6-7 right now as well. So Treliving can certainly deal a defenseman and not really miss him.

There's 4 scenarios:

1) Buy rentals and go full out for a playoff run - The risky and costly approach

2) Keep UFAs and try to make the playoffs - This provides no assets to build from

3) Sell UFAs and try to make the playoffs - This yields the most assets but sends the worst message to the locker room.

4) Keep some, sell some and try to make the playoffs - The balanced approach

Ideally you want to sell all your pending UFAs without sending a bad message to the locker room, but realistically there's going to be a balanced approach

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

Honest question, have the Flames ever had one of their own picks retire after their entire hockey career as a Flame?

Jim Peplinski & Hakan Loob are the only ones who had any considerably long careers. No one recently.

[Funkhouser]

Unload Russell, Hiller, Jones and Colborne for whatever you can get

I still think we will re-sign Hudler at a reasonable cost. Despite his performance this year, I think he has a lot left in the tank. I would offer him a $4M x 4yr. If he doesn't take it, ship him out.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by bucksmasher

Ummmmm NO NO NO NO NO!

Edit: not a first anyways

Of course not our 1st. Like I said of the first is on the table I want Drouin coming the other way. If we are able to trade Russell and Hudler for a 2nd each we will once again enter the draft with 3 second round picks. If Monahan and Gaudreau get big raises and a new goalie is brought in there is not a ton of money to replace Hudler. Let's say the Flames have a shot at signing Okposo, Backes, Ladd (free agent wingers off the top of my head) but they don't have the cap space. Treliving can pull a Sutter and package one of those picks to move one of the bad deals to free up cap space

[Flamescuprun2018]

If we did a poll right now it looks about 90-10 in favor of sell all or most UFAs you can by trade deadline. Group almost all on the same page.

I am certainly in the "sell" camp for multiple reasons.

1. Gives us assets for the draft to trade up in draft or for an RFA/prospect. 10 picks or 7-8 picks and an RFA winger would be great. Our scouting department is top tier in this league now. An early 2nd and another 2nd nets you a late 1st rounder. Lets give them picks to work their magic or give Tre the flexibility for an offer sheet equivalent deal.

2. Frees up roster spots which lets us have a really good look at several of our A and B+ prospects in Stockton for several game stretches. I would like to see Grant, Poirier, Klimchuk, Nakladal, Kylington, Kulak, and Sieloff at the Dome in March.

3. A decent lottery chance for one of the big 3 "almost cant miss
" wingers which would perfectly round out the core of our top 6. The change in lottery format is well timed. If you finish 27th you have a 9.5% X 3 = 28.5% chance of one of the big 3. If you finish 22nd you have a 5% X 3 =15% chance of one of the big 3. Some team out of the bottom three is getting one or more of those top 3 players. Matthews, Puljujarvi and Laine are all ready for NHL. Even if we miss out on lottery, Nylander, Tkachuk or one of the D prospects are nice consolation prizes for the 25-27th place team in standings.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

I still think we will re-sign Hudler at a reasonable cost. Despite his performance this year, I think he has a lot left in the tank. I would offer him a $4M x 4yr. If he doesn't take it, ship him out.

Never the fastest player and only getting slower as time goes on. I think that contract would be a headache going forward.

[robbie111]

Treliving should trade Backlund and free up his cap space.

Hartley should move Bennett back to center where he is more creative and have Granlund on Bennetts wing so Granlund can use his shot more.

[Erick Estrada]

I trade Russell even if the Flames are in a playoff spot on deadline day. The Flames lost Giordano at the same time last year and made the playoffs. I think they will do just fine without Russell.

[Enoch Root]

That avatar freaks me out

[Teroy]

If possible move Jones, Colborne, Jooris, Raymond and Wideman.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That avatar freaks me out

Yeah it's an oddly disturbing photo. Almost like he's trolling us in his typical "I'm smarter than you" posture.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah it's an oddly disturbing photo. Almost like he's trolling us in his typical "I'm smarter than you" posture.

It looks more like a LinkedIn photo than an avatar. And that makes it seem like it's actually Nenshi posting!

Freaky. But awesome.

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

There's 4 scenarios:

1) Buy rentals and go full out for a playoff run - The risky and costly approach

2) Keep UFAs and try to make the playoffs - This provides no assets to build from

3) Sell UFAs and try to make the playoffs - This yields the most assets but sends the worst message to the locker room.

4) Keep some, sell some and try to make the playoffs - The balanced approach

Ideally you want to sell all your pending UFAs without sending a bad message to the locker room, but realistically there's going to be a balanced approach

I find your black and white scenarios bizarre. Nobody is advocating trading all the UFAs. Besides, I would say that only 2 of them are worth trading(Hudler and Russell). The rest are of such low value(bar a surprise overvalued offer which we'd be stupid not to take), it really isn't worth trying to sell them.

I think we'll do the same as what we did last season. Get a couple of decent offers for Hudler and Russell and call it a day. No need to move anyone else.

[druetetective]

If teams are oly wiling to trade middling picks and prospects (3rd or later,Hankowski/ Agostino type) I would just do nothing. Playoff experience for our young core is much more valuable than an outside shot of getting a NHL player 5 years from now imo.

Remember even a 2nd rounder has only a 10% chance to be top 6 F/4D.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by druetetective

If teams are oly wiling to trade middling picks and prospects (3rd or later,Hankowski/ Agostino type) I would just do nothing. Playoff experience for our young core is much more valuable than an outside shot of getting a NHL player 5 years from now imo.

Remember even a 2nd rounder has only a 10% chance to be top 6 F/4D.

I agree that playoff experience for the young players is more valuable than an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick.

However, I am not convinced that the Flames will only make the playoffs by keeping everyone. They have showed over the last couple seasons that they play just as well, if not better, when running with the kids.

So why not have both?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by druetetective

If teams are oly wiling to trade middling picks and prospects (3rd or later,Hankowski/ Agostino type) I would just do nothing. Playoff experience for our young core is much more valuable than an outside shot of getting a NHL player 5 years from now imo.

Remember even a 2nd rounder has only a 10% chance to be top 6 F/4D.

2nd rounders are very valuable commodities that can be used to draft highly regarded young players or traded for established NHLers. Just because some teams are abysmal at drafting does not decrease their value. Higher chance of getting an impact NHLer in the 2nd round than later in the draft. Our lack of 2nd rounders is part of why our cupboards were so bare during the Sutter era.

Some people underrate how valuable 2nds and 3rds are. They are extremely valuable. I trust our scouting staff to use them, or they could be traded for players or Treliving could package them up to move up in the draft to get a better prospect.

Bring on the picks IMO. Looks at how the addition of the 2nd and 3rd from Glencross allowed Treliving to pick up Hamilton while still drafting Andersson and Kylington.

2nd rounders still in the system - Sieloff, Granlund, Wotherspoon, McDonald, Smith, Kylington and Andersson. I'd like to have more of that calibre of prospect, not less.

There is a mediocre % chance of drafting an impact NHLer in the 1st round too, does that mean we should trade away our 1st round pick each year or not acquire 1st round picks if possible? Of course not. Just because the draft is a bit of a crapshoot doesn't mean we should wants less rolls of the dice. We should want more. The more picks, the higher chance you hit on them.