Iran standoff with Saudi

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

I think you're painting with tool large of a brush. The attitudes of the Iranians are extremely diverse. In the major cities you'll find a well educated and often progressive population. In the rural areas, you'll find huge areas where illiteracy is common and the support for the government/religion is total. There are certainly large portions of the population that are against the government, as evidenced by the protests a few years ago. However, the majority of the population still supports the government.

Your sample size here is going to be extremely biased, as it will be composed largely of people who have fled the Ayatollahs.

Edit: To add to this, just as the attitudes/people vary in Iran, they also vary in Arab countries too. Major cities like Amman, Cairo, Tripoli, etc.. will all have large progressive and educated populations. It doesn't make dealing with the conservative and/or totalitarian elements in power any less difficult.

I think one of the less well publicized results of the Iraq War was it stopped liberalization in Iran in its tracks, the fear that the U.S. Would just roll through Iran was a god send to the right wing in Iran, but historically both the Iranian people and the Shia faith is more moderate than the Sunni branches, mostly because the Shia answer to a more centralized religion, their Ayotolahs are far more akin to our episcopalian system, the Sunni faith is divided up into many disperate schools open to all kinds of interpretations.

I'm not suggesting Iran is about to get rid of the Ayatolahs or the revolutionary guard, but they are far more amenable to slow change than the whack job Wahhabi's in charge of Saudi and Pakistan.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think one of the less well publicized results of the Iraq War was it stopped liberalization in Iran in its tracks, the fear that the U.S. Would just roll through Iran was a god send to the right wing in Iran, but historically both the Iranian people and the Shia faith is more moderate than the Sunni branches, mostly because the Shia answer to a more centralized religion, their Ayotolahs are far more akin to our episcopalian system, the Sunni faith is divided up into many disperate schools open to all kinds of interpretations.

I'm not suggesting Iran is about to get rid of the Ayatolahs or the revolutionary guard, but they are far more amenable to slow change than the whack job Wahhabi's in charge of Saudi and Pakistan.

I don't really buy the whole "US put back modernization" or Iran argument. The Iranian government does thrive on confrontation. However, Iran and Iraq were also involved in major wars themselves, which claimed the lives of millions. So while running over Iraq may have created a new threat in Western military, it also eliminated the very real threat of a Sunni invasion from Iraq.

As for the parallels between the Ayatollahs and our own separation of church/state, I just don't see it. The Ayatollahs have extreme power and command various militias (Hezbollah, Houthis, their own Revolutionary Guard, etc..) with extremist militants in the millions. The comparison that they may not be as bad as Saudi Arabia seems like a false compromise. While it's true that they may not be as bad as the Saudis, the Ayatollahs have far more in common with the Saudis than our own Western governments.

[afc wimbledon]

I'm not suggesting there's a separation of church and state, there isn't, but the Shia are to a degree, centrally run, closer to the Anglican or Catholic Church, where as the Sunni are divided up into many different schools of thought closer to N American Protestant faith, a large central church is far more easier to deal with, is more responsive to practical considerations.

Saudi Arabia is influenced by hundreds of different clerics, all of them having varying degrees of political influence and as such it's uncontrolable, Iran is run by one guy, the Ayatolah, he's not the only cleric but he is the supreme ruler, all other clerics defer to him.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I'm not suggesting there's a separation of church and state, there isn't, but the Shia are to a degree, centrally run, closer to the Anglican or Catholic Church, where as the Sunni are divided up into many different schools of thought closer to N American Protestant faith, a large central church is far more easier to deal with, is more responsive to practical considerations.

Saudi Arabia is influenced by hundreds of different clerics, all of them having varying degrees of political influence and as such it's uncontrolable, Iran is run by one guy, the Ayatolah, he's not the only cleric but he is the supreme ruler, all other clerics defer to him.

If that's the case, you could argue that the correct response would be to prop up the Saudis and have them bring the splintered Sunni factions under their umbrella.

I just don't see that as the answer, and I see little difference between the Ayatollahs and Saudis. We shouldn't be aiding or pandering to either group.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

If that's the case, you could argue that the correct response would be to prop up the Saudis and have them bring the splintered Sunni factions under their umbrella.

I just don't see that as the answer, and I see little difference between the Ayatollahs and Saudis. We shouldn't be aiding or pandering to either group.

You cannot bring the Sunnis together, the different schools are inherent to their faith, much like Protestantism, where as Shia has evolved around the Ayatolah system, they're akin to our bishops

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

If that's the case, you could argue that the correct response would be to prop up the Saudis and have them bring the splintered Sunni factions under their umbrella.

I just don't see that as the answer, and I see little difference between the Ayatollahs and Saudis. We shouldn't be aiding or pandering to either group.

And their is a huge difference, you don't hear about Shia suicide bombers do you? Whole different view of faith, granted still implacably opposed to Israel but they are a lot less nuts.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

And their is a huge difference, you don't hear about Shia suicide bombers do you? Whole different view of faith, granted still implacably opposed to Israel but they are a lot less nuts.

Am I missing sarcasm here?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

And their is a huge difference, you don't hear about Shia suicide bombers do you? Whole different view of faith, granted still implacably opposed to Israel but they are a lot less nuts.

Firstly, there are plenty of #####e suicide bombers. They generally attack Sunni targets, so we don't hear/care about it. However, Hezbollah has perpetrated several suicide attacks against Western and/or Israeli targets.

#####es are also splintered. The reason you don't here about there being as many groups is that there are fewer #####es generally. They compromise only 10-13% of all Muslims. While most fall under the "twelvers" umbrella, many don't. Even within the twelvers you have varying degrees of extremism.

Basically, I think you're argument relies on an unfair characterization of Sunnis as violent and an inaccurate characterization of #####es as unified and less violent.

Edit: Also, while the government of Iran may have a stronger grip over local militias, it doesn't really help when they are actively encouraging them to use armed conflict to intimidate local populations.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

Firstly, there are plenty of #####e suicide bombers. They generally attack Sunni targets, so we don't hear/care about it. However, Hezbollah has perpetrated several suicide attacks against Western and/or Israeli targets.

#####es are also splintered. The reason you don't here about there being as many groups is that there are fewer #####es generally. They compromise only 10-13% of all Muslims. While most fall under the "twelvers" umbrella, many don't. Even within the twelvers you have varying degrees of extremism.

Basically, I think you're argument relies on an unfair characterization of Sunnis as violent and an inaccurate characterization of #####es as unified and less violent.

Edit: Also, while the government of Iran may have a stronger grip over local militias, it doesn't really help when they are actively encouraging them to use armed conflict to intimidate local populations.

You can count Shia suicide bombings on one hand basically and they are all, everyone, limited to some form of battlefield situation, attacking tanks or enemy troops, there has been no Shia suicide bombing, to my knowledge, against civilian targets ever.

And I am not trying to say that Shia is better or less violent than Sunni, its the same Koran after all, but Shia political structure is centralized which makes it more controlled.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

You can count Shia suicide bombings on one hand basically and they are all, everyone, limited to some form of battlefield situation, attacking tanks or enemy troops, there has been no Shia suicide bombing, to my knowledge, against civilian targets ever.

And I am not trying to say that Shia is better or less violent than Sunni, its the same Koran after all, but Shia political structure is centralized which makes it more controlled.

Actually to say it's the same Quran is not the whole picture. It is the same Quran - but different Hadith or so called sayings of the prophet. So there is definitely a marked difference in their views on a lot of things. These two groups split 1300 or so years ago over who would succeed the prophet so it's only natural they are very different from each other in a number of ways.

I like Iran. Awesome country, awesome civilisation. Last I was there I saw tons of kids skateboarding, smoking joints, cute girls walking around with no head covering, etc.

I hate Saudi Arabia (leadership) with a passion. Extremists, the worst of the 'Arab world', yet they fly under the radar because they flood the market with fossil fuels at just the right time when the USA wants them to. Not to mention the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals, they have funded and controlled most terrorist organisations you can name, and supplied them arms and even jihadis! As a Muslim it makes me sick.

I can't wait until the mid-east has a true Arab Spring. When all the nations revolt and choose their own leader like they have in Tunisia. I've been to the Middle East, North Africa and Iran. The people are not how they are portrayed on Fox News. It's a minority of people who have been put in a position to influence thought and decisions.