Election Prediction Contest

[octothorp]

Thinking about what Harper's likely to do following the election, assuming he doesn't win. I think he'll announce intention to resign, but not actually resign immediately. Two reasons for this: firstly, (in the case of a minority) so that if Trudeau makes an early major mistep, and Harper sees the opportunity to force an early non-confidence motion, he can rescind his resignation and take another kick at an election. Secondly, I think Harper is extremely concerned about his long-term legacy and wants to be seen as having a major, long-term positive impact on the CPC fortunes. As such, he'll want to stay on long-enough that he can determine the succession plan and ensure that his successor is seen as a continuation of his legacy, not a complete departure from it.

[Fuzz]

Disagree. He looks tired and I get the feeling he will get out of the way ASAP, as it is pretty clear he is the problem.

[dammage79]

Liberals form a minority government but miss a getting a majority by 11 seats.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Disagree. He looks tired and I get the feeling he will get out of the way ASAP, as it is pretty clear he is the problem.

I agree, and he won't be allowed to make a different decision

[Dan02]

I think there is a very good chance we get a liberal majority out of this, I think we're going to see CPC supporters who voted in the past less motivated to vote while the I hate harper voters are very motivated to get out there.

A lot of my friends who have in the past shown no interest in politics are out there and engaged and trying to get all their friends out, and none of that is good for Harper. I think in Calgary alone there is a good chance 4-5 of the 10 ridings go red, not good in a city where last election every CPC candidate won at least 56% of the vote. Does anyone even remember the last time Calgary elected one non CPC/canadian alliance/reform/PC candidate yet alone multiple ones in the same election?

[Bootsy]

Originally Posted by Dan02

I think there is a very good chance we get a liberal majority out of this, I think we're going to see CPC supporters who voted in the past less motivated to vote while the I hate harper voters are very motivated to get out there.

A lot of my friends who have in the past shown no interest in politics are out there and engaged and trying to get all their friends out, and none of that is good for Harper. I think in Calgary alone there is a good chance 4-5 of the 10 ridings go red, not good in a city where last election every CPC candidate won at least 56% of the vote.

I agree with your assessment that the I hate Harper voters will be out in droves but have to disagree on the comment that the conservative voters in Calgary and rest of Alberta will be staying home , this is by far the most engaged that I've seen co workers and friends talking about and making a point to vote and they are almost all voting conservatives, I attribute this to the dissatisfaction they have with the NDP provincial win.
I think Albertan conservative voters got lazy since they almost always win both provincially and federally , people didn't really make a point to vote. The NDP was a wake up call.
Calgary may still get some red seats but I think voter numbers will be up on both sides of the spectrum .

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Does anyone even remember the last time Calgary elected one non CPC/canadian alliance/reform/PC candidate yet alone multiple ones in the same election?

Doing a little research, your answer would be 1968, my parents were in Junior high, the NHL just expanded from 6 to 12 teams and it would be another 4 years before the Flames then of Atlanta joined the NHL. So it defintely looks like we're in for a historical night.

[Fuzz]

Popular vote

Liberals - 40.8%
Conservatives - 29.2%
NDP - 17%
Green - 6.4%
Bloc - 3.6%

Seat share

Liberals - 176
Conservatives - 118
NDP - 38
Green - 2
Bloc - 4

Minority or Majority - Lib majority

Next PM - Trudeau

Sleeper pick - Tony Clement loses his seat.

[Bunk]

Damn, so close

Originally Posted by Bunk

Like the provincial election, I'm going to alter my prediction the day before. It appears to me like the Liberal's campaign has the momentum of a runaway freight train. So I think majority now.

Liberal 39.8%
CPC 31.2%
NDP 18.1%
Green 4.4%
Bloc 4.3%

Liberal 177
CPC 105
NDP 53
Bloc 2
Green 1

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Popular vote

Liberals - 39.6%
Conservatives - 30.8%
NDP - 18.7%
Green - 4.8%
Bloc - 4.1%

Seat share

Liberals - 182
Conservatives - 93
NDP - 70
Green - 2
Bloc - 1

Minority or Majority - Lib majority

Next PM - Trudeau

Sleeper pick - Mulclair loses his seat.

I just noticed that I screwed up the total amount of seats in my calculations, notably with 20 more than there actually were. I did intend on 182 and 93 for the top two, so the NDP should be 50.

Anyway, popular vote off by 0.2 for the Libs, 1.1 for the Cons, 1 by the NDP, 1.4 for the green and 0.6 for the bloc.

Off by 1 for the Libs seat wise, 6 for the Cons, what should be 8 for the NDP, 9 for the bloc and 1 for the green.

[dammage79]

I am more than surprised to see such a sweeping majority for the Liberals. I voted Liberal but I honestly thought Ontario and west would have held them in check. Instead we now get to see what an unimpeded Trudeau government can do. I am keen on a few issues to be uncontested but overall I find new regimes being given carte blanche a bit sketchy.

It is a new era for Canada, let's hope the positivity sticks and Trudeau can make some effective changes.