Are the Calgary Flames destined to collapse?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

When Sportsnet uses the headline to be so deliberately provocative, not many people are going to waste the time to read the article. In this case, I saw the headline, saw who wrote the article, and immediately lost any desire to read the article itself. If that actually represents a disservice to Willis in this specific case, then he can look at his own past history and the editorial decisions of his bosses for why.

Ok. That's an excuse for not reading it. Lousy one for commenting on the content of an article you didn't read

[Calgary4LIfe]

The eye tests really need to be a big part of the picture. Just a few thoughts.

Like Bingo stated, one guy may be erratic, but with a much higher ability. The other guy is more composed and steady, but just 'average'. What position is your team in? Entering a rebuild, leaving a rebuild? Entering contender status? That does factor in whether you want to gamble somewhat that you can help one goalie become less erratic and end up with a much higher caliber of goalie. Maybe you don't have the time - or his flaws are too great - and the steady but mediocre guy is the logical choice. Stats may not tell you who to choose.

As for comparing goalies around the league, we must all remember Miika Kiprusoff. One bad (by his measure) and one great year. .933, .923,. .917, .906, .903, .920, .906, .920, .882.

He had a few rough patches as a goalie here in Calgary - mostly late in his career. However, you can see his fluctuating stats. Why? I think it was not only a slightly different team in front of him every year, but a different play style with regards to commitment to defence. His numbers reflect that. This is an important consideration with respect to Edmonton especially, as the NYR have one of the top defensive groups in the NHL, and Talbot is going to - without question - the absolute worst. Did they really watch him and do the eye test, or are they just basing it off his consistent display? I mean, most goalies will have their numbers drop, but some goalies do better than others behind porous defensive groups than others. Talbot will without question drop statistically, but by how much? Was there a better option out there who was more poor statistically, but who was more experienced playing on a defensively inept team?

Bryzgalov is a goalie that looked fantastic behind a solid system. Not so fantastic when he wasn't sheltered. The Scrivens example above is a good one, as is Dubynk. I think it was Bingo last year posted up an article about how a goalie can over-compensate in his position due to no longer trusting his teammates in front of him. They start to pick up bad habits. Dubynk is a goalie I had argued looked really good for Edmonton, and then he magically started getting worse. Scrivens I was never as high on, but he was a fairly reliable goalie more suited to a backup role - just like Cali said above - started out great and then started faltering. I think there is a certain truth to that article. Goalies like this will have horrible stats, but the eye test may show that they merely have bad tendencies that can be coached out again (like Dubynk) and with a bit of time behind a solid team-defensive structure.

I think goaltending is like every other position in hockey. You can't rely on stats only. There is a reason that some prospects that don't get drafted one year, are drafted in the subsequent draft. Others who aren't drafted and go on to post some very good offensive numbers still don't get drafted. We all know why - there is a significant issue with the prospect's game, a size limitation without a significant enough strength to balance it out, or he was simply the recipient of another prospect(s) who drove that line. Without using the eye test, we will never know if a certain high-end offensive dynamo could translate to the NHL (like a Gaudreau, or a Kane) vs not translating well (like a Baertschi, or like a Brendl). Of course you are going to scout and base your decisions on the eye test, not just go by the stats. Goalies are exactly the same. It really matters what style they play, how good their composure is, how good the defence in front of them are, etc. It matters quite a lot, even on the same team.

There are many good examples thus far. I expect there to be a few others as well. Interesting conversation.

I still think Ramo is the better choice - albeit a bit more risky - even though his numbers aren't so good. I do think Ramo is the better road goalie, and Hiller is the better home goalie, FWIW. I still have no idea how the goaltending shakes out this year and who they end up keeping. I just don't think they will look at their respective stats and determine it from there.

[Zamboniman]

Good article for the most part, but, as usual, Betteridge's Law Of Headlines applies: If a headline ends in question mark, the answer is always, "No."

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Timely saves is an excuse PBP announcers like to use when a goaltender having a bad game makes a save at the end of the game he was expected to make in the first period.

What are you talking about, for years Oilers fans and Flames fan Vernon haters have been using that argument for decades to pretend Fuhr was better than Vernon

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well to be honest your argument is flawed when it comes to goaltenders which is by far the easiest position to grade based on stats alone because they have a single job and that's to stop pucks and there are no style points. If you have two goaltenders behind the exact same team and one is putting up better GAA and SV% as it matters not which one makes the flashier saves as the stats tell the tale on which one is better at stopping pucks.

I agree mostly, you would also have to look at volume of games, quality of opposition and number of starts on back to back nights, and number of teams faced on back to back nights.

Chances are, the way the Flames used their goalies you could probably assume the law of averages prevailed and it was pretty equal, but that's not always the case with how teams manage their goaltending. One guy often gets drawn a better hand lets say than the other.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

What are you talking about, for years Oilers fans and Flames fan Vernon haters have been using that argument for decades to pretend Fuhr was better than Vernon

This, and how many times did Hiller allow a goal on the first shot last season? I recall a few of those games.

[Vinny01]

I really think the Flames are destined to take the next step forward this year and level up to contender status by 16/17. A step back or regression would be disappointing but it is still possible. History has shown teams that get by one year with bad advanced stats can fall back to earth. I do think Calgary made 2 of the best pickups of any team this summer and by far the best of the teams that have regressed in the past. Colorado and Toronto did not add the right players or really improved their teams the year after making it to the playoffs. The flames added 2 players that fill huge needs and also have an elite prospect ready to join.

2 ways to slice it either the Flamea add Bennett, Hamilton, and Frolik to their regular season roster or add Giordano, Hamilton, Frolik to their playoff roster. Either way those are 3 highly impactful players joining the team.

[Badgers Nose]

Yes, about the same year our solar system's sun collapses.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Remember the year when Brent Sutter and Bouwmeester came on board, the Flames were picked to go far by most media outlets, but the one guy at TSN who picked them to miss the playoffs was lambasted here? I'm not saying that Willis right, but predicting the Flames fall back has just as much merit to it as saying they'll be a cup contender, until they can prove they can have repeatable success

[AcGold]

Win % seems like a way more pertinent goalie stat than save % as there is a synthesis between the goalies performance and on ice presence with how the team plays.

Maybe a goalie saves .920 of the shots but the team plays like ass in front of him because he has mental lapses where another goalie has .900 but is more consistently focused and his team plays better in front of him. The confidence Kiprusoff gave the team was palpable, they knew he was unlikely to let in a soft goal so they could take way more chances.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I really think the Flames are destined to take the next step forward this year and level up to contender status by 16/17. A step back or regression would be disappointing but it is still possible. History has shown teams that get by one year with bad advanced stats can fall back to earth. I do think Calgary made 2 of the best pickups of any team this summer and by far the best of the teams that have regressed in the past. Colorado and Toronto did not add the right players or really improved their teams the year after making it to the playoffs. The flames added 2 players that fill huge needs and also have an elite prospect ready to join.

2 ways to slice it either the Flamea add Bennett, Hamilton, and Frolik to their regular season roster or add Giordano, Hamilton, Frolik to their playoff roster. Either way those are 3 highly impactful players joining the team.

If you look at the team that knocked Vancouver out of the playoffs and compare it to now, you get the following changes:

In ........... Out
Frolik ...... Raymond
Bouma .... Shore
Byron ..... Granlund (and Granlund isn't really gone)
Giordano . Diaz
Hamilton . Schlemko
Smid ...... Wotherspoon

plus,

Monahan
Hudler
Brodie
Russell
Colborne and
Jooris

were playing hurt.

[AltaGuy]

This thread just reminded me of something incredulous I read over on the other boards the other day. While discussing the idea of Eichel and McDavid joining forces on a line in the U23 tourny, someone posted (likely an Oil fan), "It would be amazing seeing the possession numbers those two could generate together". Or something to that effect.

I just thought to myself, "Ooo, possession numbers, how exciting. Much more exciting than big goals or passes or rushes or even - you know - watching actual possession on the ice. Nope, I would be so excited by those numbers once crunched the next day."

At any rate, neither here nor there, but the excitement over data was pretty weird to me.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Ok. That's an excuse for not reading it. Lousy one for commenting on the content of an article you didn't read

Again, blame Sportsnet. Because the headline said something that people disagreed with. But hey, if defending misleading clickbait is your thing, then have at it.