Rube's 2015 NFL Gambling Odyssey

[Sylvanfan]

What's the line on the Cheifs at Minnesota? If it's less than 14 points I'd be jumping all over the Vikings off a bye to annihilate a hapless Chiefs team that won't be able to do anything on offence.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

What's the line on the Cheifs at Minnesota? If it's less than 14 points I'd be jumping all over the Vikings off a bye to annihilate a hapless Chiefs team that won't be able to do anything on offence.

Vikings offence hasn't been anything to write home about either. It has all the makings makings of a thrilling 13-10 contest.

[rubecube]

Sigh. 3-4-1 last week, 29-21-2 for the year. How the #### do you lose to Landry Jones, Arizona? How? Cards are starting to remind me of the Saints from a few years ago. Absolutely dominant at home but pretty meek on the road.

On another, I'm debating whether I should do a gambling podcast. Not because I know what I'm talking about or anything, just because it might be funny for people to hear my thought process and then mock me mercilessly. If people end up listening to it that is. I'm not really sure how you go about promoting these things.

Anyways, on to this week.

JAX +4.5
NYJ +8
TEN +5
WSH -3.5
IND -4
SD -3.5
NYG -3.5
CAR/PHI U45.5

[Sylvanfan]

Don't mind the Jacksonville play, we'll find out if them regularly going to London and knowing what to expect eventually starts to result in them doing better in these games. Either way, Bortles has been playing reasonably well and Buffalo's offence is pretty scattered.

Like the Jets to cover against the Patriots this week. New England is pretty banged up on the offensive line and the Jets have good corners and line backers to cover the Pats weapons.

I don't like your Tennessee +5 at home to Atlanta. The Falcons have had a longer week and Mariota got banged up against Miami. Even with the Titans at home I expect Atlanta to play well coming off the loss and having had extra prep time.

Washington -3.5 over Tampa seems reasonable. The Skins have been up and down all year, they were bad last week in the second half against the Jets. Tampa is tough to predict as they're either bad or not quite as bad as the other team.

Indy -4 against New Orleans, I don't like that one for you. New Orleans has had extra time and Brees is starting to show some life on offence. Indy did play the Pats reasonably well, but I still don't see a Fletcher Cox in their defence to destroy the Saints like what happened against Philly.

Don't like San Diego at -3.5 against the Raiders coming off a bye. I think this years Raiders are a vastly improved team and will be a field goal apart max. These last two losses for the Chargers will take a toll on them.

Giants as a 3.5 at home against the Boys...I might personally avoid that game myself, Dallas could be a bit unpredictable this week. The fundamentals support the play as Matt Cassel is crap, and Dallas' run game is also mediocre this year. But they are off a bye and the Giants played on Monday night.

Carolina and Philly under 45.5...hmmm Seattle and Carolina were 50 last week. Phillies offence looks to be improving and their defence is good, but is it at the same level of Seattle's at home? I think I'd play the over here.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Don't mind the Jacksonville play, we'll find out if them regularly going to London and knowing what to expect eventually starts to result in them doing better in these games. Either way, Bortles has been playing reasonably well and Buffalo's offence is pretty scattered.

Yep, and as well as Buffalo's D line has played, their secondary has been bad (mostly due to injuries).

Like the Jets to cover against the Patriots this week. New England is pretty banged up on the offensive line and the Jets have good corners and line backers to cover the Pats weapons.

I think they'll be able to move Brady around in the pocket which is when he tends to struggle. I also like the match-up of Marshall and Decker against New England's corners.

I don't like your Tennessee +5 at home to Atlanta. The Falcons have had a longer week and Mariota got banged up against Miami. Even with the Titans at home I expect Atlanta to play well coming off the loss and having had extra prep time.

Mettenberger has gotten all the reps this week and is pretty comfortable in this offense. Atlanta also has a history of playing down to their opponents. They very easily could be 1-6 right now.

Indy -4 against New Orleans, I don't like that one for you. New Orleans has had extra time and Brees is starting to show some life on offence. Indy did play the Pats reasonably well, but I still don't see a Fletcher Cox in their defence to destroy the Saints like what happened against Philly.

Fair enough. All of the Saints' losses this year have come against pretty good defenses, something the Colts definitely don't have.

Don't like San Diego at -3.5 against the Raiders coming off a bye. I think this years Raiders are a vastly improved team and will be a field goal apart max. These last two losses for the Chargers will take a toll on them.

The bye week thing tends to be over-exaggerated. Teams that have good records coming off the bye tend to just be good teams with good coaches. The Raiders do not fit this description. Oakland has also had a lot of trouble stopping TEs this year, so I'm expecting Rivers and Gates to light them up.

Giants as a 3.5 at home against the Boys...I might personally avoid that game myself, Dallas could be a bit unpredictable this week. The fundamentals support the play as Matt Cassel is crap, and Dallas' run game is also mediocre this year. But they are off a bye and the Giants played on Monday night.

I think the Giants are probably the best team in the NFC East. They played a really dumb and sloppy game against the Eagles that they probably should've won if they had limited the mistakes.

Carolina and Philly under 45.5...hmmm Seattle and Carolina were 50 last week. Phillies offence looks to be improving and their defence is good, but is it at the same level of Seattle's at home? I think I'd play the over here.

I actually don't really think the offense has gotten much better. The run game is still getting stuffed in the backfield way too often. The offensive line is committing way too many penalties and mental errors. The WRs are still dropping balls, and Bradford still looks terrible. I think they'll be lucky to put up more than 17 against a good Panthers defense. I'm expecting something like a 24-17 Panthers win.

[rubecube]

Added STL - 6 this morning.

[rubecube]

6-3? I'm trying to be a dick. I'm just drunk. It's 6-3, right?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by rubecube

6-3? I'm trying to be a dick. I'm just drunk. It's 6-3, right?

Actually, 6-4, you useless, drunk #######. 35-25-2 for the year.

KC -3.5
NYG +3
SD +3.5
CHI ML
CIN/PIT O48.5
STL -8
TB +7.5
SEA -5
CAR -7

[rubecube]

Forgot about this. Apparently I made a bunch of preseason bets on teams O/U for wins. I'm not going to count them as part my regular picks, but I'll put them down here for record keeping.

CHI - O7
DEN - O10.5
PHI - O9.5
NO - U8.5
DET O8.5
IND U10.5
JAX U5.5
MIA U8.5
NYJ U7.5
SD U8
STL O8

Looks like I'll likely go 7-5, or best case scenario 8-4.

[Sylvanfan]

KC -3.5

Taking the Chiefs as a favorite seems a touch risky here in a neutral site game. Landry Jones looked like a rookie last week, but every other QB looks like Brady against them.

NYG +3

Giants on the road, I think that one's a bit risky too. The Giants seem to have a team policy where they don't like playing two good games in a row. They've been murdered their last couple visits to New Orleans.

SD +3.5

I can get on board with this pick just because both teams like to play close games, and neither one seems to like winning them. Picking Rivers for that last minute BS back door cover, tends to work.

CHI ML

Given the odds, likely worth it. I still think the Vikings are starting to find their form as a team. They've been pretty good since that disasterous week 1 game.

CIN/PIT O48.5

With Roethlisberger back, and some injuries on defence, seems like a good bet to me.

STL -8

St.Louis should be able to cover this spread. But a bit like the Giants...they seem to insist on playing bad every other week, or not want to win games that could really improve their place in the standings.

TB +7.5

Your theory of Atlanta playing at their opponents level held true last week. No reason to abandon it.

SEA -5

Matt Cassel is playing QB for the Cowboys against a somewhat rested Seahawks team. This should be shooting fish in a barrel, even if Dez Bryant is back, Matt Cassel's arm isn't strong enough to throw the ball to the side lines.

CAR -7

Colts on the road against a team that defends like the Panthers, they should be able to cover this spread.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

KC -3.5

Taking the Chiefs as a favorite seems a touch risky here in a neutral site game. Landry Jones looked like a rookie last week, but every other QB looks like Brady against them.

My only reason for this was because of how horribad Detroit's run defense has been and how good KC's can be. Then I remembered Andy Reid and immediately regretted my decision. The points were the right play here. I may try to hedge by taking Detroit ML.

NYG +3

Giants on the road, I think that one's a bit risky too. The Giants seem to have a team policy where they don't like playing two good games in a row. They've been murdered their last couple visits to New Orleans.

I read a couple of years ago that a really good way to pick games was to check the games a team has played against their opponent's divisional rivals. I can't remember the reasoning behind it, but I've employed it a few times with pretty good success. The Saints barely beat a Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys team, and got smoked by the Eagles (who are bad). The Giants should be able to keep it within a field goal if they don't totally implode, which they have a tendency to do.

[Sylvanfan]

I hope you didn't get that Detroit moneyline bet in. Lions have been far worse than I anticipated

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I hope you didn't get that Detroit moneyline bet in. Lions have been far worse than I anticipated

Nope. Stayed away.

[Frequitude]

Oh man the Lions o-line was bad. Stafford's going to be tender in the morning.

[rubecube]

Adding DEN ML for tonight.

[rubecube]

5-4-1 last week, which brings me to a 40-29-3 record for the year. Not feeling as confident about my picks this week, which is usually when I should start looking at taking over/unders but I completely forgot about that. Anyways...

CAR +2.5
OAK +4
MIN -2
BUF -2.5
ATL -7
DEN -5
DAL +3
CHI +4

[Sylvanfan]

To date I think we should have established that if I oppose one of your picks...you are right to make that pick. If we agree, you got it wrong. If I'm leery about it, it's probably 50-50.

Carolina as a 2.5 dog hosting Green Bay. The Packers offence isn't the unit it had been. Had Carolina finished better against the Colts, I'd like this pick, but once the Colts just started hucking the ball down the field they were able to move the ball. I'm leery of this game for the Green Bay bounce back factor.

Oakland +4 at Pittsburgh, There is something that makes me hesitate a bit only because the Raiders lost in Chicago. West Coast teams can struggle playing that 1 Eastern start time. But the Raiders have really been playing well, and Pittsburgh has not. So given the choice I'd stick with your play.

Minnesota -2 at home against the Rams..Vikings at home have been good, so yeah that's probably the play I'd make there too. The Rams are starting show a bit of consistency and that they are a talented team.

Buffalo as a 2.5 favorite hosting the fish. Back to the bye vs non bye thing. Can Rex rally the Bills off the bye? With Taylor looking to be back in the fold the Bills should be able to get back on track. Although my hesitation here lies in the fact that it's tough to sweep a set of Division games against an opponent unless you're one of those elite teams or they're just lousy. The Dolphins under Campbell aren't lousy and the Bills aren't elite.

Right now anyone with 7 points against the Niners is a pretty good play. That offence is bleeding points against, and the defence can't outscore what the offence gives up. Even with the Falcons flaws and inconsistency, it's Blaine freaking Gabbert.

Denver -5 against anyone not named New England right now looks like a solid pick. The Colts showed some life, but this isn't the week where Luck will have time to sit in the pocket and go deep. Indy sucked at the tempo based short passing game with Pep Hamilton, and that's about the only chance you'll get to move the ball against the Broncos, especially with their dumpster fire run game.

Going with the Boys? I think you're a touch too pessimistic on your crew. Dallas' offence right now is pretty woeful until Tony Romo can take snaps. Their defence has been pretty solid, but I think the Eagles will cover 3 points against a team who will struggle to kick more than 4 field goals.

Chicago +4 at San Diego. If you look the common opponent in Oakland, than it's a good bet. Both teams are beat to crap with injuries, but the Chargers are likely suffering worse.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Going with the Boys? I think you're a touch too pessimistic on your crew. Dallas' offence right now is pretty woeful until Tony Romo can take snaps. Their defence has been pretty solid, but I think the Eagles will cover 3 points against a team who will struggle to kick more than 4 field goals.

Four field goals might be enough to beat this lousy Eagles offense that's likely going to be missing Jason Peters and Ryan Mathews. I'm also predicting Dallas gets a defensive of special teams TD.

[rubecube]

Perfect morning but the afternoon isn't looking great.

[Frequitude]

I went 7-1 in the morning thanks in large part to your picks. Keep it up!