Interesting advanced stats on the Flames' Dman passing

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by DJones

Every sport is a highly random game but no other sport makes those types of nonsense assumptions.

Actually, most sports used to make some assumptions, but as analytics improved have begun to make better assumptions. Basketball included. Back in the day people used to just look at the team that allowed the least points per game, add a mantra of "Defense wins championships" and call that team the favorite. Also the team that scored the most points a game was said to be the best offensive team.

But when you look back, and for Basketball these stats go way, way back, it turns out that all the best teams ever had a high Ortg (points scored per possession) and low Drtg (points allowed per possession). What the advanced stats in that sport did was remove variables like "pace" from the equation and look more analytically at what was going on.

This year's Golden State Warriors team that won by defying conventional logic? They had the kind of Ortg and Drtg differential that I associate with absolutely frighteningly good teams - 2008 Celtics, 1996 Bulls, 1986 Celtics, etc. They didn't actually "surprise" anyone who was paying attention, but the people who were most surprised were the people who didn't think a small ball team could do it.

The thing is, historically small ball teams had problems that were clear in their advanced stats. And most will, because they don't have a Draymond Green.

For the first time ever, a small ball team was good in advanced stats, and they steamrolled their way through the season.

It's not the approach, but the results that matter. There's many approaches to being a good team. No one is going to confuse the 2008 Red Wings with the 2014 Kings style of play just because their stats are similar. Both styles can win but that doesn't mean one way or the other is right.

What if Anaheim would have won the cup this year? Haven't seen anyone say the wouldn't have been worthy. Not the greatest goalie. Just a good team with a 17th place Corsi. They're my favorite for the cup next year and they aren't an elite possession team. Clearly something else is going on.

Anaheim's post trade-deadline moves (Lovejoy for Depres in particular but also DSP for Sekac) increased their FF% to 54.2%...most would call that an elite possession team... If they had sustained that number for the whole regular season it would have been the 2nd best in the NHL behind only LA and only by a sliver. They also had Perry and nearly their whole blueline out for a chunk of the season which skews their full season stats.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by flameswin

I remember this was one thing that bugged me about Regehr back in the day, but I didn't really say anything back then because most CP'ers were heavily bought into the Sutter "Defense and hard checking first, puck moving and skill second" mindset.

But he used to always make the safe play, which for his skill set was usually the best play, but still it was frustrating seeing him make a really good, tough checking play in our zone to recover the puck, then came the old div 6 bantam dump up high off the glass, followed by the opposing team rushing back in our zone six seconds after Regehr worked his ass off to get the puck in our possession.

The problem with no Regehr is that the Ducks cycle the puck in the offensive zone, not taking a lot of shots until the skilled good passers defending make a mistake and the Ducks get a quality scoring chance.

Much better to have a 6 second break or force some neutral zone play rather than giving the other team unlimited time in the offensive zone.

If the other team is going to be gaining easy access to your zone (as implied by the 6 second break) on a regular basis you are going to lose anyway.

The other thing that a Regehr does is "encourage" more dump ins and weak shots on net as the attacking player does not want to take the hit that going round Regehr is a high probability. Dumping a weak shot on net and going for a line change is a better Corsi move than skating into the corner , taking the hit and waiting to pass it to the slot. Which is the better possession play?


There is also the total game changing giveaway goal aspect of the skilled pass being intercepted in the slot and oops there goes the game. Nobody ever lost a game by getting the puck out of the zone.

It really helps when your cycle breaker is Seabrook/Gio or hopefully Hamilton rather than Engelland.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cheerio

If you watch a soccer game, where ball possession is tracked very well, you'll notice that possession correlates to winning.

There are several problems with this argument.


First, it's a vast oversimplification.

Second, soccer possession has nothing to do with hockey possession.

The automatic possession tracking actually calculates possession like this:
(Possession for Team A = Number of completed passes made by Team A / Total number of completed passes by both teams).

As you can see, this is also a proxy for "possession", and a completely different proxy with completely different problems. (Obviously the major problem here is not tracking where on the field the passes are made, nor how many passes were intercepted.)

To sum it up, just because in soccer the team that makes more succesful passes wins more often does not mean that tracking shot attempts in hockey is a good stat. Completely different sports, completely different stats.

(You can also track possession with a chess clock in soccer. Which is imperfect and has shown even more conclusively how uninteresting just having the ball in itself is.)

Overall soccer is pretty much the last sport you want to use to defend the importance of possession, as in soccer you can easily win games with possession numbers as low as below 25%.

To quote the first article:

Therefore, it is wiser to attempt to draw conclusions from fundamental statistics such as shots, placed in their proper context, rather than assuming that dominant possession automatically indicates a superior side and any loss was unfortunate.

I think the most telling thing about corsi and fenwick is the comment by Treliving that actual NHL teams don't really use them much.

[Itse]

As for those stats mentioned in the article:

So stereotypical of the advanced stats crowd.

The stats themselves are not bad, nor would I even call them uninteresting.
But the conclusions drawn are laughable.

[dying4acup]

It just occurred to me that Russell is the 7th highest paid defenseman on the team.

[InconvenientTruth]

Russell isn't good.

Well that's a lie. He's good at having the play taken to him enough that he gets hit with the puck lots. Everlast punching bags should sponsor him.

[pepsishark]

The only passing that matters is the passing of the torch from deadbeat journalist to informed blogger.


Pepsishark Out!

[Da_Chief]

Who are these 2 tools? They keep agreeing/thanking each other posts in couple of these threads. Someone check they're probably same people.

[pepsishark]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Who are these 2 tools? They keep agreeing/thanking each other posts in couple of these threads. Someone check they're probably same people.

You must be really, really simple if you only go onto a message board to feel safe and know that your opinions will be broadcasted and reinforced, then insult and accuse anyone new or different. He's a pal on social media, I saw him mention CalPuck and thought I'd login and give my two cents as well. Thanks for calling me a tool, though.

[cannon7]

The real debate is who has the better outlet pass? Engelland or Smid?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by cannon7

The real debate is who has the better outlet pass? Engelland or Smid?

Wouldn't be surprised if Keegan Kanzig was already better than Engelland at passing.

[Street Pharmacist]

I'm guessing one of these two is MikeFAIL who I like to read (including this article). Don't agree with everything, but he's got opinions that he backs up and likes to talk flames.

Kinda get annoyed with all the "Average fan opinions are dumb, they aren't as smart as me" circle jerk that occurs often on that crowd's twitter though. Some people don't trust or understand some of the new metrics. Big whoop, but the insulting is a bit much

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by pepsishark

You must be really, really simple if you only go onto a message board to feel safe and know that your opinions will be broadcasted and reinforced, then insult and accuse anyone new or different. He's a pal on social media, I saw him mention CalPuck and thought I'd login and give my two cents as well. Thanks for calling me a tool, though.

Might as well call a spade a spade.

[InconvenientTruth]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

Who are these 2 tools? They keep agreeing/thanking each other posts in couple of these threads. Someone check they're probably same people.

We are the future

[InconvenientTruth]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'm guessing one of these two is MikeFAIL who I like to read (including this article). Don't agree with everything, but he's got opinions that he backs up and likes to talk flames.

Kinda get annoyed with all the "Average fan opinions are dumb, they aren't as smart as me" circle jerk that occurs often on that crowd's twitter though. Some people don't trust or understand some of the new metrics. Big whoop, but the insulting is a bit much

Neither of us are Mike Fail (who happens to be a solid dude if you get to know him).

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by InconvenientTruth

Neither of us are Mike Fail (who happens to be a solid dude if you get to know him).

I really like his stuff. I follow him on twitter

[pepsishark]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'm guessing one of these two is MikeFAIL who I like to read (including this article). Don't agree with everything, but he's got opinions that he backs up and likes to talk flames.

Kinda get annoyed with all the "Average fan opinions are dumb, they aren't as smart as me" circle jerk that occurs often on that crowd's twitter though. Some people don't trust or understand some of the new metrics. Big whoop, but the insulting is a bit much

I'm not Mike, but it's funny you should say that they treat other people's opinions that way, because that is kind of what's happening to me right now. I've so far been called a tool and off base - all for being new and simply suggesting that Lance Bouma could be traded, and his value on the market might be higher than it is as a roster player. I've contributed literally nothing else to this forum.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I'm guessing one of these two is MikeFAIL who I like to read (including this article). Don't agree with everything, but he's got opinions that he backs up and likes to talk flames.

Kinda get annoyed with all the "Average fan opinions are dumb, they aren't as smart as me" circle jerk that occurs often on that crowd's twitter though. Some people don't trust or understand some of the new metrics. Big whoop, but the insulting is a bit much

If you look a their 2 posts above mine it really wasn't adding anything intelligent. They were insults hurled at Russell and Journalists.

They then come out and say they have the same agenda, at that point its not about right or wrong. They're having their fun with downplaying the current roster players who sacrifice their body for the better of the team.

Read the other RFA thread, I didn't insult them anywhere there, debated with them but now one os saying Booms at 1.5 mill is overpaid. If that's not trolling I dunno what is.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

If you look a their 2 posts above mine it really wasn't adding anything intelligent. They were insults hurled at Russell and Journalists.



They then come out and say they have the same agenda, at that point its not about right or wrong. They're having their fun with downplaying the current roster players who sacrifice their body for the better of the team.



Read the other RFA thread, I didn't insult them anywhere there, debated with them but now one os saying Booms at 1.5 mill is overpaid. If that's not trolling I dunno what is.

Yep I agree. I did say that pepsishark was off base but it wasn't because he was new or think that Lance Bouma could be traded. It was because he was using misinformation on his part to back his argument.

In other news these stats are kind of interesting. I'm excited to see how our D core ends up looking with Hamilton added. Personally, I expect Wotherspoon to take a step as well.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by pepsishark

I've so far been called a tool and off base - all for being new and simply suggesting that Lance Bouma could be traded, and his value on the market might be higher than it is as a roster player. I've contributed literally nothing else to this forum.

Stop whining. You're borderline spamming the threads and it's annoying. What else do you expect.