McKenzie's top 75 2015 draft final rankings

[Caged Great]

I would be very disappointed if those ended up being our picks with the exception of Forsbacka Karlsson.

[#-3]

I kinda thought that Bettmen would pay off all the scouts to rank McDavid 2nd, FIFA style.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

McKenzie seems to have gone more 'mainstream' with his ranking than Button. Button has Brock Boeser as a top 10 pick. Whoa. He's also not very high on Hanifin. Compares Provorov to Giordano.

This is a good crop of players for the Flames specific needs: RW & D. One of Rantanen, Svechnikov, Merkley, Meier, Konecky or Boeser would be great for the team going forward.

I'm hoping Sprong and Kylington fall to the 2nd round so we can have a shot at them. I think they both have too much talent to pass on, but are too risky to be 1st rounders.

Bobs isn't his ranking it's based on a survey of scouts

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

It's McKenzie's list with analysis from Craig Button.

Bob McKenzie's list isn't about him scouting a player, it's an aggregate from talking to teams and scouts. It's a good pulse of the draft but he's out not there watching players and making his own list. That's what Craig Button is doing, that's why Craig is the one doing the players bios.

Bob and Craig's lists go so well together. With Buttons you have have a true idea of how one individual could rank players and McKenzie's is a good idea how of a teams list could come together, many voices merged into one.

Yep, great post.

You can read about his accuracy here too: http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/7/9/...ssing-accuracy

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Bobs isn't his ranking it's based on a survey of scouts

Yeah, if you're looking for what some call a board, Bob's would be considered.

[sureLoss]

http://www.tsn.ca/draft-mystery-and-...ichel-1.300623

Beyond No. 5, there is considerable debate in which order the rest of the Top 10 should play out, but based on the TSN survey, it's should actually be referenced as a Top 11. There wasn't a lot separating Nos. 6 through 11.
University of Michigan freshman defenceman Zach Werenski drew the short straw to fall out of the top 10 to No. 11 but truth is it was by the slimmest of margins. The rest of the top 10 is as follows:
Sarnia Sting centre Pavel Zacha at No. 6; Kingston Frontenac winger Lawson Crouse at No. 7; Brandon defenceman Provorov at No. 8; Seattle Thunderbird centre Matthew Barzal at No. 9 and Finnish winger Mikko Rantanen at No. 10.

Scouts didn't discount the possibility of an outlier beyond the top 11 cracking the Top 10 on draft day. The best bets in that regard are Swiss winger Timo Meier of the Halifax Mooseheads at No. 12 and American forward Kyle Connor of Youngstown in the USHL at No. 13. But make no mistake, TSN's survey clearly suggests there is a Top 11 in this draft.

-- One of the most intriguing names in the draft is Swedish defenceman Oliver Kylington, who is ranked No. 24.
Kylington was a Top 10 pre-season pick and originally seen as a threat to challenge Hanifan and the other high-end defenceman for best blueliner. The Swede is one of this draft class's best skaters but he didn't put together his game this season like many thought he would. He hung on to be a first-round pick on TSN's list, but a considerable number of scouts had him well outside the top 30.
It will be interesting to monitor when he's taken.

[Phanuthier]

I think Burke referenced this 2nd tier being after No 11 as well

That leaves the next tier for us to get one of the following (according to McKenzie's list, going to 19 and leaving out Roy and Chabot cause they are not in the top 20, but make sense to me) :

Timo Meier (RW)
Kyle Connor (C/LW)
Jakub Zboril (D)
Travis Konency (RW)
Colin White (C)
Nick Merkley
Evgeni Svechnikov (RW)

I bolded who I would have for the 4 I would like, based upon nothing but reading player profiles. I wonder if we would take a Russian (Svechnikov) ?

Given how 2-3 playerse usually drop, wouldn't surprise me to see one of Meier or Conner drop, which sounds good to me. Otherwise, I would guess at least Merkley would still be there which also sounds good to me.

[dammage79]

Svechnikov won the CP poll by a healthy margin.

Kid embodies all of what the Flames are seeking. It makes too much sense to me.
If you add the fact that the Flames scouts would be in Charlottetown often to keep tabs on Mason McDonald makes Svechnikov and easy player to watch a lot.

Russian factor doesn't exist with this kid, listen to his interviews, read the quotes, he wants no part of the KHL. Is willing to go to the AHL if that is what it takes to play in the NHL. Is a Gym rat who the Islanders coaching staff has to keep tabs on so he doesn't burn out. If I could re-write this paragraph it would read:
Flames Flames Flames Flames.

This is the right Russian at the right time for the Flames.

Is everyone sold yet?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by dammage79

.
If you add the fact that the Flames scouts would be in Charlottetown often to keep tabs on Mason McDonald makes Svechnikov and easy player to watch a lot.

Seen you say this a couple times now but I don't know if that's how it works.

Typically the scouts will move onto next years crop of kids the minute the current draft ends. If anything the opposite is true, scouts will check in on Mason MacDonald as they're scouting for this draft, not going out to specifically keep tabs on an already drafted player.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Seen you say this a couple times now but I don't know if that's how it works.

Typically the scouts will move onto next years crop of kids the minute the current draft ends. If anything the opposite is true, scouts will check in on Mason MacDonald as they're scouting for this draft, not going out to specifically keep tabs on an already drafted player.

All I am saying is, is that they have an easy excuse to go out there. In any case, both sides of our conversation are speculative. Scouts and Gm's have been reported to go out and watch their picks. Conroy went out this year and watched Bennett in the OHL IIRC during one of his trips. It's not impossiible that what I said is right.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by dammage79

All I am saying is, is that they have an easy excuse to go out there. In any case, both sides of our conversation are speculative. Scouts and Gm's have been reported to go out and watch their picks. Conroy went out this year and watched Bennett in the OHL IIRC during one of his trips. It's not impossiible that what I said is right.

Yeah, Conroy's not a scout though. Conroy has mentioned that the main brass will have seen some of the top picks and have opinions but they'll defer to the scouts mostly. The management group will make trips, check up on the top picks, check up on guys already selected etc etc but the main scouting group typically won't do go to check out a guy already drafted. They'll update on drafted players as a side to checking out the next crop, not the opposite. Mason MacDonald wasn't nearly as watched this year by the Flames scouts as he was last year.

I get your point, but scouts will do their due diligence on a guy like Svechnikov regardless of who is or isn't already in the system.

Small quibble as I realize that wasn't your main point.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Seen you say this a couple times now but I don't know if that's how it works.

Typically the scouts will move onto next years crop of kids the minute the current draft ends. If anything the opposite is true, scouts will check in on Mason MacDonald as they're scouting for this draft, not going out to specifically keep tabs on an already drafted player.

Originally Posted by dammage79

All I am saying is, is that they have an easy excuse to go out there. In any case, both sides of our conversation are speculative. Scouts and Gm's have been reported to go out and watch their picks. Conroy went out this year and watched Bennett in the OHL IIRC during one of his trips. It's not impossiible that what I said is right.

I think the breadth of Calgary's scouts is much larger than it used to be, isn't?

That isn't including guys who aren't official 'scouts' but who will be called upon to give an opinion on a kid here or there.

I think it's likely you might spend more time watching a drafted player than an undrafted one based on the basis of the amount of undrafted kids to see. One of the most important things I think that has been an edge for competitive teams is knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em with a player or a prospect before their value falls off.

Keeping tabs on them constantly is the best way to establish a history to know if they start to stray or stagnate. It's also important for pro scouting to know how deep you are at a given position. Going down to see Bennett and seeing what he was doing in person was probably a big reason why he got an opportunity in the playoffs.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I don't do scouting or read prospect reports out of the top 20, but for as "deep" as this draft is, just clicking on random names in the No 40-75 and I see lots of 3rd line and bottom pairing defenseman for projections, and NHL comparables like Wiercioch and Andrew Desjardins. I don't see how thats 2003 draft comparable for depth?

Even in the all mighty 2003, only 37 of the first 75 players drafted played more than 300 games. Even if this draft turns out as deep as that one, half of these players will bust and never even be 3rd liners.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

McKenzie seems to have gone more 'mainstream' with his ranking than Button. Button has Brock Boeser as a top 10 pick. Whoa. He's also not very high on Hanifin. Compares Provorov to Giordano.

Mackenzie's list is an aggregate list of all the scouts and managers he talks to. So of course it will look more "mainstream."

Button's list is his own personal list

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I suspect Mackenzie's top 13 will be gone before our pick. So unless we trade up we're likely left with a choice of players like Konecny, Merkley, Svechnikov, Bittner, Eriksson Ek, Boeser up front with Zboril, Chabot, Carlo, Kylington, Roy and Carlsson on defense.

[GranteedEV]

The more and more I think about Connor, the more I'm hoping he's there at 15. His draft year numbers are that much better than Gaudreau's draft year numbers in the USHL. This team needs more game-breakers if it wants a chance against teams like the Blackhawks, and he looks like the biggest game-breaker left.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The more and more I think about Connor, the more I'm hoping he's there at 15. His draft year numbers are that much better than Gaudreau's draft year numbers in the USHL. This team needs more game-breakers if it wants a chance against teams like the Blackhawks, and he looks like the biggest game-breaker left.

ISS has him 13th
CSS has him 13th
McK has him 13th

Craig has him 6th (in other words flames love him.)

I doubt he lasts to 15th though, when he pacts on some beef he's going to be a beast.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I suspect Mackenzie's top 13 will be gone before our pick. So unless we trade up we're likely left with a choice of players like Konecny, Merkley, Svechnikov, Bittner, Eriksson Ek, Boeser up front with Zboril, Chabot, Carlo, Kylington, Roy and Carlsson on defense.

McKenzie's list doesn't really factor in outliers and off-the-board picks, as it is in fact an aggregate list he compiles from scouts he speaks to. I could see someone like Barzal, Rantanen or Zacha sliding a bit, which would make things pretty interesting.

Boeser is really intriguing. He put up very similar numbers to Gaudreau in the USHL, though he's got a much bigger frame and can use it. Button ranking him in the top 10 could be a good indication that some teams are in fact very high on him.

He projects as a top line RW, but he's committed to the NCAA. Picking him might inspire some hand-wringing amongst the more impatient folks on this board; it sounds like he could be a couple seasons away from cracking the lineup, but I would fully endorse taking him at 15. My kind of home-run pick

Svechnikov, Zboril and Roy all seem like good picks. Slightly lower ceilings, but they would be more instantly gratifying.

Today I'm liking Boeser, Svechnikov, Roy or Zboril, in that order (if there aren't any major top 10 guys who fall into our lap.)

[cral12]

Interesting to see Button has Kylington at 47th and McK's compilation has him at 24th - many still intrigued by what he could become. Wonder if he might still be a Flames' consideration.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by cral12

Interesting to see Button has Kylington at 47th and McK's compilation has him at 24th - many still intrigued by what he could become. Wonder if he might still be a Flames' consideration.

The thing that I'm most interested in is how much of an impact his back injury will have moving forward. If it was just a one off and not a big deal, then he could be a steal. Bennett fell to the Flames last year because of his shoulder, and Kylington could possibly be the same story this year. If it isn't a big deal, and his play was impacted by his back, that would go a long way to explain his lack of progress.

If that's the case, I would be all for him getting selected at 15.