PREDICTIONS: 2015 Provincial Elections

[Resolute 14]

Brian Jean's performance in the debate was the best thing that could have happened to the PCs. As long as Wildrose looked capable, voters on either side could choose to abandon the PCs without great risk of the 'other, scary side' taking majority control. But after that debate, it quickly came clear that the choice was between making that protest vote anyway, or not handing a majority to a party that legitimately frightens a lot of people.

NDP or PC, I just hope it is a minority.

[Smartcar]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It's not just about changing minds. Polling is one thing, voting is another.

This. Who answers pollsters anyway? I've personally hung up on them at least six times over the past two weeks after the first recorded words come on. I wonder how that gets recorded, and whether there are a lot of people like me.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Does anyone else think these polls are totally wrong again and the PCs are headed to another crazy majority?

A small part of me does.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Smartcar

This. Who answers pollsters anyway? I've personally hung up on them at least six times over the past two weeks after the first recorded words come on. I wonder how that gets recorded, and whether there are a lot of people like me.

Pollsters do record response rates, and yes they are typically low. The question you're implicitly asking is whether this fact creates a "response bias", where the people who are responding to polls are not a fair representation of the population that actually votes.

This is a complicated question, but I think one way to look at it is that if your hypothesis is that there is a sufficient response bias that the PCs and NDP will switch positions on Tuesday, that would be a very strong response bias, and I would guess virtually unprecedented (though I'm happy to be corrected on that point if anyone knows more about this issue).

My guess is the popular vote numbers are pretty close--but the issue then becomes how regionally concentrated the NDP vote is, and how effective their GOTV operation is around the province. On both of those points, my guess is the PCs have an advantage. However, that advantage likely isn't enough to stop the NDP from sweeping Edmonton (19 seats). In addition, the NDP will likely pick up at least another 3 in Calgary, and 4 elsewhere in the province, so they are starting with a base of 26 seats in all likelihood. Can they get another 10 or so and form a minority despite the above disadvantages? I do to know, but at this point my guess is they can.

[CliffFletcher]

The flaw I see in polling is if 2/3 of the people who say they will vote PC cast a ballot, and only 1/2 of the people who say they will vote NDP do so.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The flaw I see in polling is if 2/3 of the people who say they will vote PC cast a ballot, and only 1/2 of the people who say they will vote NDP do so.

Hardly a flaw though. It only means they don't care enough to protest; thus, more OK than not with the status quo.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The flaw I see in polling is if 2/3 of the people who say they will vote PC cast a ballot, and only 1/2 of the people who say they will vote NDP do so.

Historically though this level of of bias between groups of pollsters vs voters hasn't been seen. The bigger factor is the regional bias in our first past the post system. Racking up half the vote in Edmonton does nothing to help beyond the 19 seats.

27 NDP
32 PC
27 WR
0 lib
1 AB

Pretty much regional splits between the 3 parties.

[Flamenspiel]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Brian Jean's performance in the debate was the best thing that could have happened to the PCs. As long as Wildrose looked capable, voters on either side could choose to abandon the PCs without great risk of the 'other, scary side' taking majority control. But after that debate, it quickly came clear that the choice was between making that protest vote anyway, or not handing a majority to a party that legitimately frightens a lot of people.

NDP or PC, I just hope it is a minority.

nm

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Does anyone else think these polls are totally wrong again and the PCs are headed to another crazy majority?

A small part of me does.

Not me. People need someone to blame low oil prices on. Timing couldn't be better for NDP to swoop in on people's emotions.

[kn]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Does anyone else think these polls are totally wrong again and the PCs are headed to another crazy majority?

A small part of me does.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Nehkara]

Second projection:

NDP: 48
WR: 19
PC: 18
LIB: 1
AP: 1

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Does anyone else think these polls are totally wrong again and the PCs are headed to another crazy majority?

A small part of me does.

The likelihood of every single poll being wrong is... very low.

It sounds like we will have poll releases right up to tomorrow night, so we should have a fairly good idea if anything changes.

Here is a comparison I just created of the polling in 2012 vs 2015:






That final poll in 2012 released the night before the election showed the race had closed to only a 2 point lead for the Wildrose over the PCs!

The most recent poll we have this year, done yesterday, has the NDP with an 18 point lead on the WR and a 21 point lead on the PCs.

Keep a very close eye on the polls released tomorrow evening! If it shows the race tightening a lot, then expect perhaps a PC or WR minority. If it stays the same, then expect an NDP minority or majority.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

The likelihood of every single poll being wrong is... very low.

It sounds like we will have poll releases right up to tomorrow night, so we should have a fairly good idea if anything changes.

That is something people forget about 2012. If I recall correctly (which is not certain) there weren't many polls over the final weekend of campaigning, and the Wild Rose lead had dwindled into single digits in the final polls of the campaign.

In addition, we had a unique strategic-voting dynamic that doesn't seen to be happening again, for all the PCs last-ditch efforts to create it. Ironically they now have to reach out to the very party they scorned last fall and ask them to hold their noses and vote conservative to stop the NDP. However, this seems to be falling flat; I think many WRP voters would rather see the NDP win than prop up this government for one more term.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

...I think many WRP voters would rather see the NDP win than prop up this government for one more term.

I agree, this is a very plausible and unsettling scenario.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Ironically they now have to reach out to the very party they scorned last fall and ask them to hold their noses and vote conservative to stop the NDP. However, this seems to be falling flat;

Ipsos asked people if there was any chance they would switch their vote. WR voters were the least likely to switch.
WR - 36% might change vote
PC - 46% might change vote
NDP - 49% might change vote
AP - 70% might change vote
LIb - 75% might change vote

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I think many WRP voters would rather see the NDP win than prop up this government for one more term.

They also asked that. Of WR supporters 33% would vote NDP second, 21% PC, 15% AP, 9% Lib or some other party, 5% wouldn't vote and 16% didn't know.

If the poll is accurate then 21% of 36% = 7.56% of WR supporters might change to the PC's. Not looking good if the PC's are counting on that. Might be enough to swing the overall numbers by a couple of percent province wide.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/263678004/Alberta-Factum-1

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Ipsos asked people if there was any chance they would switch their vote. WR voters were the least likely to switch.
WR - 36% might change vote
PC - 46% might change vote
NDP - 49% might change vote
AP - 70% might change vote
LIb - 75% might change vote


They also asked that. Of WR supporters 33% would vote NDP second, 21% PC, 15% AP, 9% Lib or some other party, 5% wouldn't vote and 16% didn't know.

If the poll is accurate then 21% of 36% = 7.56% of WR supporters might change to the PC's. Not looking good if the PC's are counting on that. Might be enough to swing the overall numbers by a couple of percent province wide.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/263678004/Alberta-Factum-1

Yeah the biggest issue here for the narrative of a PC comeback is that they're running 3rd at only about 21% in the polls. They would need a landslide of support to come their way. It's not like 2012 when they were only trailing by 8 points or so, so a fairly small shift could bring them to the front.

[flamesfever]

It's downright scary to think the NDP might rule this province. Just look what happened when Rae won Ontario. They have never recovered since.

If by chance, the NDP did win, I think the only way to keep Alberta from self destructing is to have a PC / WR coalition.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by flamesfever

It's downright scary to think the NDP might rule this province. Just look what happened when Rae won Ontario. They have never recovered since.

If by chance, the NDP did win, I think the only way to keep Alberta from self destructing is to have a PC / WR coalition.

There are examples of every major party having gigantic screw up provincial or federal governments in their history.

It's an excuse for fear mongering.

Give me an actual good reason besides "a completely different group of people with a similar name two decades ago did a thing in a different province on the other side of the country that didn't work out".

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

There are examples of every major party having gigantic screw up provincial or federal governments in their history.

It's an excuse for fear mongering.

Give me an actual good reason besides "a completely different group of people with a similar name two decades ago did a thing in a different province on the other side of the country that didn't work out".

Is it though? I mean I get with a single policy or single government where you have a group of criminals (Devine in Saskatchewan kind of thing). But when I look at the NDP I don't see successful governments in prosperous provinces? That continued mediocrity or worse makes me think its policy related and not just a single occurrence?

[sworkhard]

The only poll that got it right in 2012 was vote compass and they had the PC's well in the lead for most of the election campaign.

This year their numbers are much closer to the polls.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alb...-ndp-1.3058572