[News] CBS Sports power ranking w/ intro geared at Calgary

[HighLifeMan]

We get compared to the Leafs and Avalanche on a daily basis, but unlike those two teams Calgary is not a team that gets consistently outshot by the opposition..

2013-2014
Colorado Avalanche had a -258 shot differential
Toronto Maple Leafs had a -655 shot differential

2014-2015
Colorado Avalanche have a -279 shot differential
Toronto Maple Leafs have a -189 shot differential

Then you take a look at Calgary this season and realize that they only have a -39 shot differential to date and if you dig in deeper you will find that they have actually outshot the opposition by a 23 shot margin over the past 49 games... Calgary had a -62 shot differential during the first five games of the season, but otherwise and for the majority of the time this is not a team that gets heavily outshot.

Corsi punishes Calgary for playing a system that encourages shot blocking, but at the end of the day they put roughly the same amount of pucks on the oppositions net than they allow on their own.

Yes..Calgary does have an above average on ice shooting % at even strength, but at the same time there team save % is only average, and there specialty teams can and will likely only improve over time. I don't think we will see much of a regression over time (if any at all..), especially as our younger players continue to improve.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

People expected both teams to nosedive. Colorado did post-season.

Colorado wouldn't be the only team to get upset (and that in a series decided in a game seven overtime). San Jose, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay... none of those teams hear any criticism for "nosediving" in the postseason.

[Resolute 14]

Corsi measures more than shots though, and that is the basis of the comparisons, so...

Calgary 2014-15: -502 (pro-rates to -762 over 82 games)
Toronto 2013-14: -1083
Colorado 2013-14: -456

As far as punishing shot blocking goes, Fenwick takes care of that.

Calgary 2014-15 -282 (pro-rates to -428)
Toronto 2013-14 -885
Colorado 2013-14 -372

Stating our shooting percentage is above average is understating things. at 8.88% 5 on 5, we're second in the league behind only Tampa. So long as we maintain that, we overcome the Corsi/Fenwick deficit.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Colorado wouldn't be the only team to get upset (and that in a series decided in a game seven overtime). San Jose, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa Bay... none of those teams hear any criticism for "nosediving" in the postseason.

Feel free to read the rest of that paragraph...

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Corsi measures more than shots though, and that is the basis of the comparisons, so...

Calgary 2014-15: -502 (pro-rates to -762 over 82 games)
Toronto 2013-14: -1083
Colorado 2013-14: -456

As far as punishing shot blocking goes, Fenwick takes care of that.

Calgary 2014-15 -282 (pro-rates to -428)
Toronto 2013-14 -885
Colorado 2013-14 -372

Stating our shooting percentage is above average is understating things. at 8.88% 5 on 5, we're second in the league behind only Tampa. So long as we maintain that, we overcome the Corsi/Fenwick deficit.

How do you explain the shot differential then?

Shot on net > Shot that misses or gets blocked.. Correct?
Calgary is clearly doing something that neither of those teams could.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Oh god, now we're into semantics?

No, cupcake, now we're into mathematics. I'm not a statistician, but I have some idea what advanced statistics look like. Corsi and Fenwick ain't it.

This proves my point. Some people are trying to gain more insight into the game but some others have nothing but derision for that effort.

No, some people are proclaiming that they have already answered all the questions and solved for all the variables, and they are saying there are only two possible variables: Corsi and luck. This is obviously not the case.

It's like unless we developed a unified statistical theory of hockey that explains everything then nothing is of value. Instead lets all go back to the real insight offered by Don Cherry and other savants of hockey genius to give us the important and meaningful sermons.

When you're done beating that man, Farmer Jones would like his straw back.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Feel free to read the rest of that paragraph...

I was agreeing with you; just felt like ranting.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

How do you explain the shot differential then?

Shot on net > Shot that misses or gets blocked.. Correct?
Calgary is clearly doing something that neither of those teams could.

No, I agree. We block more, but we also make the other teams miss more, which Corsi/Fenwick don't account for. My point was to illustrate why the fancystats fans are skeptical of what Calgary is doing.

Shot differential aside, we really are this year's Avs.
Get killed in Corsi/Fenwick, but 2nd in the league in shooting percentage (5 on 5) - the Avs were 8.80% last year. Last year's Avs were 6th in save percentage though at .929. We aren't too much worse at .920, but that's only 16th.

The question for the Flames going forward actually intertwines shot attempts and shooting percentage. It isn't likely that we would maintain a top two percentage next year, so we need to be taking more shots to compensate. Sean Monahan is a great example on an individual level. His shooting percentage is well down, but his shot attempts are way up, so he is on pace to score 3 more goals this year than he did last.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Rerun

The story makes me think of a quote by Kevin Durant:

He picked that up from Darryl Sutter. "Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard." - Darryl Sutter - 2004

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Rerun

The story makes me think of a quote by Kevin Durant:

Originally Posted by Reaper

He picked that up from Darryl Sutter. "Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard." - Darryl Sutter - 2004

*Tim Notke

[mrkajz44]

I've said it before, but I can't buy into Corsi or Fenwick due to the subjectivity inputs. I feel like actual shots on net are often mis-counted, so how do you objectively count blocks and shots "at the net".

I was watched a game a few nights ago and Russell got his stick in just as the player was taking his shot. The result was the puck went up into the netting. Does this count as a shot at the net and block? Hrudey even commented on that (because it was the shot-blocking machine Russell).

Too much subjectivity at this point for me to truly trust shots / corsi / fenwick.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Split98

*Tim Notke

Never heard of Notke but I heard Darryl Sutter say it first so he was my go to.

Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

No, I agree. We block more, but we also make the other teams miss more, which Corsi/Fenwick don't account for. My point was to illustrate why the fancystats fans are skeptical of what Calgary is doing.

Shot differential aside, we really are this year's Avs.
Get killed in Corsi/Fenwick, but 2nd in the league in shooting percentage (5 on 5) - the Avs were 8.80% last year. Last year's Avs were 6th in save percentage though at .929. We aren't too much worse at .920, but that's only 16th.

The question for the Flames going forward actually intertwines shot attempts and shooting percentage. It isn't likely that we would maintain a top two percentage next year, so we need to be taking more shots to compensate. Sean Monahan is a great example on an individual level. His shooting percentage is well down, but his shot attempts are way up, so he is on pace to score 3 more goals this year than he did last.

Fair enough, and I totally agree with your second point.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Reaper

Never heard of Notke but I heard Darryl Sutter say it first so he was my go to.

Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott

HS coach who coined it

[united]

My advanced stat:
100% of people who are anti-advanced stats are vegan and partake in crossfit.

Did I tell you they crossfit? Are you sure? I don't think you heard me the first 15 times...crossfit!!!

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Split98

HS coach who coined it

If you look closely you can see that I didn't refute your post. I actually looked up who Tim Notke was but stopped caring at the basketball part.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Reaper

If you look closely you can see that I didn't refute your post. I actually looked up who Tim Notke was but stopped caring at the basketball part.

Huh, that was rude. I was informing you of who he was. Kinda a normal thing when someone expresses a lack of knowledge of something I just referenced. Especially when that person was JUST in the middle of correcting someone else.

Sorry I didn't recognized you didn't give a ish.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Split98

Huh, that was rude. I was informing you of who he was. Kinda a normal thing when someone expresses a lack of knowledge of something I just referenced. Especially when that person was JUST in the middle of correcting someone else.

Sorry I didn't recognized you didn't give a ish.

Meh, if that's the rudest thing you read on the internet today then you're doing okay.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Reaper

Meh, if that's the rudest thing you read on the internet today then you're doing okay.

Glad to see you hold yourself in high regard. I typically try and avoid being an asshat to people for literally no reason. But then again, I'm not an asshat.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by Split98

Glad to see you hold yourself in high regard. I typically try and avoid being an asshat to people for literally no reason. But then again, I'm not an asshat.

So, your response to perceived rudeness is to start name calling. I guess you had your reason. I shan't sleep well tonight as I stew over being called an asshat.