QOTD: Midway Point - Can the Flames play .600 hockey?

[united]

First 20 games:
CF 44.4%
PDO 103.1
Points/game 1.30

21 games since:
CF 44.2%
PDO 98.8
Points/game .905

As expected, the Flames hit a PDO rut while possession stayed about the same. As a result, points dropped drastically.

Halfway point:
CF 44.3%
PDO 100.9

I think both possession and PDO, when viewed as a total after 41 games, are representative of what the Flames are. Backlund returning and healthy should help possession somewhat but there's only so much he can do. He will certainly help the PK, he's an elite PKer. I see the Flames taking 42-45 points the rest of the way, falling short of the playoffs but exceeding pre-season expectations.

[Bourque's Twin]

Let's assume that Nashville, Chicago, St. Louis, Anaheim, Vancouver, San Jose, and LA are locked for playoff spots. They are all teams around their prime.

For the last wildcard spot, the Flames are currently competing against,
Winnipeg - can Hutchinson keep up a .936 save %?
Dallas - If Lehtonen doesn't stand on his head, can their defense shut teams down?
Minnesota - Can Keumper carry the mail for the rest of the season?
Colorado - Will Varlamov be consistent? Can their offense pickup and makeup for their weak D?

In my opinion, the Flames' can emerge as the top team among this group if Hiller and Ramo play well and they figure out their special teams.

I have a lot of faith that they will. They handle adversity well.
That's why I voted for "Yes, this season seems fated, they will find a way in"

[FanIn80]

I think the 8-game losing streak is an unfortunate anomaly that doesn't repeat itself this again this season, but the damage from it will be too much to overcome. I voted for .580 and barely out of it at the end.

Which, by the way, is all kinds of awesome. Maybe we don't get McDavid, but to be at this stage after year-one of our rebuild and to STILL have Sam Bennett, Sven Baertschi, Emile Poirier, Joni Ortio, Tyler Wotherspoon, Keegan Kanzig, Michael Ferland, Max Reinhardt, Mark Jankowski...

[Badgers Nose]

Imo we are really only in year 1.5 of this rebuild. I'm super happy with the progress and on ice product.

The finished product will be closer to the 1989 Flames than the 2004 Flames. And I think that is perfect. Not just because of the obvious end result, but it makes this more of a team of equals versus two superstars and a whole bunch of hard working support cast.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by troutman

It could be a two team race for 8th , between WIN and CGY:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

Things Change so fast, but right now I completely agree with that. Min & Dal could certainly work themselves back into the conversation.

It is the only reason I think the Flames still have a chance. For a young team that hasn't been there before 45 points mid way just isn't enough. But Min & Dal have dug themselves a big hole and don't exactly have a wealth of experience winning at the NHL level, and Winnipeg might even have less experience winning than the Flames do, and are pretty banged up.
(Hudler, Raymond, Bollig & Hiller have a history of team success at the NHL level + Gio and Glencross to a lesser extent).

It really looks like for he first time in a long time there will be 1 slightly undeserving team in the west that sneaks in, and it could be us.

The other 3 teams might have a schedule advantage, I haven't looked at the schedule but I assume since they are all in the same division they will have a chance to take points away from each other that Calgary will not have going down the stretch.

[DOOM]

If it wasn't for the two Oilers game and that crazy comeback against LA the Flames could of lost 11 out of their last 12. (They were outplayed in their other win against LA also)

[Rick M.]

Upper echelon teams find another gear late in the season. I'm not sure the Flames can up their game enough but I think they'll give it all they've got.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by DOOM

If it wasn't for the two Oilers game and that crazy comeback against LA the Flames could of lost 11 out of their last 12. (They were outplayed in their other win against LA also)

So if it wasn't for the fact they won 4 games, they would have lost 11 of 12?
Weird observation.
They beat the defending cup champs TWICE.
They get credit for that. Full stop.

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

So if it wasn't for the fact they won 4 games, they would have lost 11 of 12?
Weird observation.
They beat the defending cup champs TWICE.
They get credit for that. Full stop.

Im just saying they are not trending upwards in their play. They don't look like a team that is going to go on a streak.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Im just saying they are not trending upwards in their play. They don't look like a team that is going to go on a streak.

I dunno. I think they actually played a fairly solid game against Detroit, and late in the long losing streak there were good games.

Even the game against the Islanders wasn't bad. You have to recognize that these are good teams in their own right. Most nights the Flames are, talent-wise, at a disadvantage.

I think they are playing fairly well right now.

[Stay Golden]

I hope the Flames can squeak in but as the contenders start to improve their rosters i think the Flames will be going the opposite direction in the next few months.

[Dion]

I think the Flames have been well scouted and teams are better prepaired when they play against us. That's not to say we haven't been playing well, it's just that other teams are playing us better defensive wise.

Our top 4 d men have been logging more ice time than I would like and I feel it's leading to mistakes that are costing us wins. Add to the fact that Hartley doesn't have much confidence in our fith and sixth d men.

My feeling is that we will fall short in our playoff asperations and that could lead to some interesting times come the trade deadline.

[getoverit]

Agree think we will be 7-10 in the draft this year, and this years draft will be an important one to help us continue with our rebuild. Our cupboards are not that full with top end talent. I will say they look 1000% better then we did couple years ago but need to continue to build on size and skill, top 6 players. Bennett cant wait, Poirier looks like a good potential, Jank is still aways away with big Q marks, then it starts getting a little thin. Be nice to have a couple rise out of no where in next year just like Joorish did

I dont want to be a 8th or10th team in the conference, that killed us in drafting decent players for past decase, way too long!!!!!!! and I dont think we have the skill to make noise this year.

This past 18 months IMO has been the funnest to watch and engage with the flames, I believe but its still early

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I think once the season is done that the Flames will be drafting in the 7-10 zone.

[Stay Golden]

In order for the Flames to start winning games they need the PP to start clicking again. The production on the PP has been far too quiet to move the Flames up in the standings.

[crapshoot]

They had 20 wins during second half last season and 21 wins first half this season. Saying they don't have the horses to run with the teams they are competing with seems pretty weird to me in that context. It's not like 22 wins these next 41 games will be totally impossible to accomplish.

I think we will see a few more winning streaks like the one we just saw. I'm willing to wager that playoffs or no playoffs will be decided during the last week of the season. Pretty exciting too since the final two games are against the Kings and the Jets. Could potentially be real nail biters, and how awesome wouldn't those kind of games be for the development of our youngsters?

[SeeGeeWhy]

This team is incredible, and their progress in the last two seasons has been incredible, but in their last 20, they've been under .500, and I think this reflects the rest of the league finally catching up and playing at the Flames speed.

It will be interesting to see if the flames have another gear and can get faster themselves, but they aren't passing as well or making decisions as quickly either.

I'd say they have a good chance of being between .470 and .520, which probably puts them at 9-10, and one hell of a season. Looking forward to seeing the second half! If they can sustain the speed and energy levels, and if goaltending stays sharp, they'll have a good chance because the coaching staff and D have shown they have the ability to adjust... I could be pleasantly surprised come playoffs.

[Kaine]

I'm pretty sure many will feel the same way but this season has already vastly exceeded my expectations for this year, it has been a real treat as a fan. Whatever happens from here on out is just gravy.

[Caged Great]

I just posted a mostly relevant article to this topic just now.

The Ups And Downs

[longsuffering]

I love the way the team is playing but at the risk of being chased off the forum by posters with pitchforks, I don't want the Flames to make the playoffs this year, or least I'd gladly trade a likely first round elimination for a top 5 (preferably) draft pick.

[djsFlames]

22 wins in the first 43

will say they need another 22 wins in the remaining 39. Will have to force a couple OTs in there as well.

22-14-3 is approximately the record we're looking for.

= 44-32-6 94pts

We're very lucky with how inconsistent San Jose and LA have been. They've allowed us to stay within reach. I don't expect that to continue very long, though. A problem for us is how many we're losing in regulation. We need to find ways to sneak out with a loser point now and then.