How hard is it to draft a blue-chip D-Man?

[#-3]

I'm gonna start with my definition of blue chip, a guy you are confident will be a top6 forward, top4 d, starting goalie. In the Flames Org you currently have Bennett, and I think in some peoples opinions Poirier and Gillies might be borderline blue chip,
Baertschi probably would have been a blue chip prospect in the past but has faded. Any other prospect I might define a vary good prospect, but not blue chip.

They way I see it, if your drafting in the top 10.

Forwards probably give you about a 75% chance at a good blue chip player,
D give you about a 50% chance,
and goalies give you about a 25% chance.

Mostly because on the development curve forwards are allot closer to their prime at draft age.
Elite forwards seem to hit their prime around 23-24 years old.
D at about 26 years.
and goalies at about 28 years old.

So to definitely get a real blue chip prospect you need to burn 2 top ten draft picks in a row on D. Which most teams don't have and is often really hard to do when your odds of hitting with a forward are so much higher.

The rest of the draft statistically is a bit of a crap shoot, so all you can do is invest in drafting and development. There are teams that seem to be able to do it consistently for the D position like Nashville & Arizona. It seems like for 12 they are always bringing exciting young defenders into the league. But both teams have struggled develop forwards for some reason.

[bubbsy]

top 14 dmen (arbitrarly selected from this nhl.com article), it's interesting to see where each was drafted:

Doughty (1st Round, 2nd overall)
Weber (2nd Round, 49th overall)
Chara (3rd Round, 56th overall)
Giordano (Undrafted)
Subban (2nd Round, 43rd overall)
Keith (2nd Round, 54th overall)
Karlsson (1st Round, 15th overall)
Pietrangelo (1st Round, 3rd overall)
Kronwall (1st round, 29th overall)
Ekman Larrson (1st Round, 6th overall)
Suter (1st Round, 7th overall)
McDonagh (1st Round, 12th overall)
Hedman (1st Round, 2nd overall)
Vlasic (2nd Round, 35th overall)

Ignoring Gioradno, as he went undrafted, (where i maybe could have put him at the max draft overall +1 but didn't so as to not skew results), the average draft position for the top 14 dmen in the game today is 24th overall. I'd love to see how many dmen were drafted in the draft years before these guys.

Landing a top4 dman is so difficult to traject at the draft. However, i think development, patience is extremely critical (just falling short of what is needed for goaltending prospects i suppose). i think a dman really needs almost 5 years before they are able to show what they can be at the NHL level. The other thing with defencemen is that when they do mature enough to play at the NHL level, it is so important to have veterans in the d group that can show young guys the ropes and how to play d at this level. Phaneuf, giordano always had strong veteran presence in their first few years, and i suppose the same can be said of brodie.

[JohnnyTitan]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

top 14 dmen (arbitrarly selected from this nhl.com article), it's interesting to see where each was drafted:

Doughty (1st Round, 2nd overall)
Weber (2nd Round, 49th overall)
Chara (3rd Round, 56th overall)
Giordano (Undrafted)
Subban (2nd Round, 43rd overall)
Keith (2nd Round, 54th overall)
Karlsson (1st Round, 15th overall)
Pietrangelo (1st Round, 3rd overall)
Kronwall (1st round, 29th overall)
Ekman Larrson (1st Round, 6th overall)
Suter (1st Round, 7th overall)
McDonagh (1st Round, 12th overall)
Hedman (1st Round, 2nd overall)
Vlasic (2nd Round, 35th overall)

Ignoring Gioradno, as he went undrafted, (where i maybe could have put him at the max draft overall +1 but didn't so as to not skew results), the average draft position for the top 14 dmen in the game today is 24th overall. I'd love to see how many dmen were drafted in the draft years before these guys.

Landing a top4 dman is so difficult to traject at the draft. However, i think development, patience is extremely critical (just falling short of what is needed for goaltending prospects i suppose). i think a dman really needs almost 5 years before they are able to show what they can be at the NHL level. The other thing with defencemen is that when they do mature enough to play at the NHL level, it is so important to have veterans in the d group that can show young guys the ropes and how to play d at this level. Phaneuf, giordano always had strong veteran presence in their first few years, and i suppose the same can be said of brodie.

Awesome analysis. Where do you think the (arbitrary) top 14 forwards would have come from in the draft? Would the histogram look similar ?? (some top 1st picks, some middle 1st picks and then a scattering of 2nd and 3rd rounders) or would there be a greater bias towards top-10 picks? Off the top of my head, most of the best guys are top-5 picks. (Crosby, Stamkos, Tavaras, Ovechkin, Kane, Toews with Getzlaf and Perry being from a DEEP 2003 draft).

So what does that tell us?

And more importantly, what should the Flames do if they want to make a run at the cup in 2017 !!

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by JohnnyTitan

Awesome analysis. Where do you think the (arbitrary) top 14 forwards would have come from in the draft? Would the histogram look similar ?? (some top 1st picks, some middle 1st picks and then a scattering of 2nd and 3rd rounders) or would there be a greater bias towards top-10 picks? Off the top of my head, most of the best guys are top-5 picks. (Crosby, Stamkos, Tavaras, Ovechkin, Kane, Toews with Getzlaf and Perry being from a DEEP 2003 draft).

So what does that tell us?

And more importantly, what should the Flames do if they want to make a run at the cup in 2017 !!

i actually think forwards are different. I think the same analysis would show a much sharper indication that higher picks equals higher quality elite scorers. That's why we've seen an obvious bias, especially early in the first round (top 5-10) towards teams trying to hit a home run on forwards than picking a dman, and even more so for goalies who are an even greater crapshoot.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by #-3

I'm gonna start with my definition of blue chip, a guy you are confident will be a top6 forward, top4 d, starting goalie. In the Flames Org you currently have Bennett, and I think in some peoples opinions Poirier and Gillies might be borderline blue chip,
Baertschi probably would have been a blue chip prospect in the past but has faded. Any other prospect I might define a vary good prospect, but not blue chip.

They way I see it, if your drafting in the top 10.

Forwards probably give you about a 75% chance at a good blue chip player,
D give you about a 50% chance,
and goalies give you about a 25% chance.

Mostly because on the development curve forwards are allot closer to their prime at draft age.
Elite forwards seem to hit their prime around 23-24 years old.
D at about 26 years.
and goalies at about 28 years old.

So to definitely get a real blue chip prospect you need to burn 2 top ten draft picks in a row on D. Which most teams don't have and is often really hard to do when your odds of hitting with a forward are so much higher.

The rest of the draft statistically is a bit of a crap shoot, so all you can do is invest in drafting and development. There are teams that seem to be able to do it consistently for the D position like Nashville & Arizona. It seems like for 12 they are always bringing exciting young defenders into the league. But both teams have struggled develop forwards for some reason.

I consider "blue chip" prospects to be ones with nothing short of elite potential. Top line forwards, #1 defencemen and elite starting goaltenders. Bennett is probably Calgary's only "blue chip" prospect. Gillies is debateable, I guess.

[JohnnyTitan]

OK -> Not saying Kenney Morrison is Blue Chip, but as the study in this thread indicates it takes 5+ years to develop good D-Men. Hopefully signing a 23-year old helps us have an NHL-ready 5/6 guy come next season...with a chance of him or Wotherspoon becoming a #4. Yay!

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by codynw

I consider "blue chip" prospects to be ones with nothing short of elite potential. Top line forwards, #1 defencemen and elite starting goaltenders. Bennett is probably Calgary's only "blue chip" prospect. Gillies is debateable, I guess.

Pretty much but I'd go a step further and lable blue chippers as 'can't miss'. Blue chippers are incredibly rare and aren't available every draft. It's especially difficult to assign that label to any goalie (probably since Carey Price). Bennett is as close to 'can't miss' as it gets without being Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel.

[Imported_Aussie]

The Flames will probably need to make a trade, depth at LW and C in the prospect pool for a D who is closer to contributing. Trades like that can be a gamble, but once enough future assets have been stockpiled, it is the kind of trade the team will be able to make

e.g. Granlund + for a guy like Beaulieu, Gormley, etc.

[GranteedEV]

Gotta be patient.

I have no idea what people don't see in Kulak to think he doesn't have top pairing potential. He's as far along in his development as Brodie was in the same age, though he did get off to a rough start this season.

The key is patience and development. Don't look at draft position, look at the tools and the head on the shoulders. Consider that:

When Brodie was drafted he wasn't considered a good enough defensive Dman despite offensive talent. Now after all that videowork with Troy Ward he is our team's go-to shutdown Dman.

When Rafikov was drafted, his biggest weakness was skating and he was labelled a great physical stay at home guy and now he's already a respectable skater at 19 years old and he's one of the top offensive Dmen in his league while being the only guy on that least anywhere near his age.

When Hickey was drafted the biggest knock on him was quality of competition in the AJHL while he had all the tools (size, skating, IQ, shot, passing). Well lookie now, he's playing in a great league, the NCAA, on a dominant team and he looks brilliant every time he's on the ice.

When Kulak and Culkin were drafted, they were scouting's top 2 choices for our 4th round pick and were very close, and Button was stoked when Culkin fell to the 5th round. Both have size, skating, offensive flair, defensive accumen. Kulak does most skills slightly better while Culkin had an easier time adjusting to the AHL early on. Culkin goes and leads all rookie AHLers in power play assists before his injury while Kulak was sent to the ECHL to get development time (We had a whole bunch of young left D between Cundari Culkin Wotherspoon Sieloff Kulak that all needed minutes). Well Kulak goes to the ECHL and simply dominates the league as a 20YO. Keep in mind this is a pro league that is probably at a higher level than the NCAA on average as it's full of some pretty good former CHLers amd NCAA guys and even blue chip prospect goaltenders find themselves sent there early in thier careers. Then Culkin gets injured, Kulak gets the callup and this time he's been very effective at the AHL level as a 21 year old. Check his stats and +/- since his callup. And for that matter, if we sign Jason Fram he's a third guy with the same toolbox as this pair, except he also brings a right shot.

Kanzig. A lot of us though "Chris Breen 2.0" when he was drafted but he's made significant progress in his skating since his draft, and his trade to the hitman has changed his stats to the kind you want from a prospect. His favorite player is Zdeno Chara and if he were to even become a homeless man's version that is a player teams do not want to see. Who knows what his peak his? He's another high IQ player that has stuff he needs to work on physically and in his skillset, but he's got time to do it.

Wotherspoon. What can I say? No he doesn't "visually" look like a top pairing D like a Justin Schultz does but he's got a very Sean Monahan-esque vibe to him in that I expect him to quietly adjust to the NHL seemlessly. He's a big body, a good skater, a good passer, and he's learned to make reads offensively that already put him ahead of other "stay at home" prospects. Again, IQ is paramount and he soaks up all the information. He spent last year with Ward and this year with Huska, two coaches who have produced some stellar Dmen.

Long story short: No we don't have Blue Chip Prospect dmen but niether did Nashville with Weber/Josi or us with Gio/Brodie or even Chicago with Duncan Kieth. It's all a process. We have a good top 4 right now thst gives all these guys time to learn the pro game and step up to the next level. It's even too early to write off Cundari, Sieloff, or even Ramage. You never know when everything just "clicks".

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

I would be very surprised if any top 4 defenseman hit the UFA market in the next half decade

interesting thought.

I think you make a really good point and think that the only top 4 who do hit the market in the next several years are guys on their way down or who's contract demands are well outside reality.

[GioforPM]

"How hard is it? Really hard!!"

[Poe969]

You can't even mention the oilers when talking about defensemen. They don't play D anyway and I'm sure the 1 or 2 defensemen prospects they have will learn to abandon all defensive parts of their game and just shoot more to raise their advanced stats.

[GioforPM]

Poor Darnell Nurse.

[Incogneto]

Can someone who knows more about our prospects than me (re: GranteedEV) tell me more about Sieloff? Before his staph infection, I was very high on him being a potential shutdown guy on the big team, but I haven't heard much about him this year. Is he still developing to the point that he has NHL potential?

[GranteedEV]

I think Sieloff needs time in the ECHL like Kulak got earlier because the AHL team just doesn't have enough minutes to distribute on the blueline. It's definitely true that he's not the biggest guy on the ice and for a shutdown guy that hurts a bit. I see no reason why he can't be an NHLer but he needs to play and he needs to play a lot. I feel like Kanzig is going to steal his current minutes away from him next year so (for him) the best scenario is for both Morrison and Wotherspoon to be on the NHL Flames' 3rd pairing, Cundari to make the team as the 7th D, and Ramage doesn't get qualified. THat'd leave something like

Stevenson-Kulak
Sieloff-Culkin
Acolatse-Kanzig

As the AHL pairings. It also youths up our NHL blueline with a good three-man rotation on the bottom pairing. But that's assuming Smid is on LTIR and we can find a taker for Engelland.

Recently he's played as a forward on the wing just to get on the ice and he's been arguably more effective there, but I also don't think it makes sense to have forwards who don't bring a lot of offense.

End of the day Sieloff is even younger than Culkin and Kulak. Can't be understated.

[Roof-Daddy]

Sieloff has moved to forward the last few games. Not sure if it's permanent but Drury raved about his play on the wing compared to how he looked as a Dman. Guess we will see if it sticks, but by adding two more college Dman to the fold I doubt they move him back anytime soon.

[Tyler]

Originally Posted by Goodlad

I think that's actually a better example of how long it takes for some defencemen to develop. He's been playing some really good hockey for Colorado the last couple of seasons.

Yeah, but he was a first overall pick. Should be a different story there.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's hard but you have to keep chipping away at the draft to find them because they are rarely available in free agency.

Which is why I think it's foolish when people say draft picks other than 1sts are just a crap shoot and people put too much value in them. They may be a crap shoot but this is why you need additional picks to increase your odds tremendously. Glencross wasn't signing here this off season and we were able to get 2 chances to land a player for us. I'll take that any day.

[Hackey]

A lot of people were happy Maatta was still around when we were picking. And then....

With the 21st pick in 2012 NHL entry draft the Calgary Flames select...

[Tyler]

Originally Posted by Hackey

A lot of people were happy Maatta was still around when we were picking. And then....

With the 21st pick in 2012 NHL entry draft the Calgary Flames select...

That didn't take long...