[CP Story] The Calgary Ava-Leafs

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

I like this thread and the CP Story that started it. Thanks ya'll.

[blankall]

Correct me if I am wrong.

Corsi includes all shot attempts, including blocked shots. Fenwick does not include blocked shots but needs a much larger sample size.

The Flames are leaders in blocked shots. Therefore their Fenwick, which is unavailable right now, will be much better than their Corsi.

[Boo Radley]

Correct me if I am wrong also.

For determining Corsi are the "blocked shots" your shot attempts that are blocked by the opposing team or are they shots that you have blocked? I am pretty sure it is the former but I was wondering...

Maybe I am out to lunch on this but has anyone looked at combining something like Corsi (correlates offensive zone possession) with defensive zone blocked shots (indicative of strong defensive zone positional play). Don't know how you would do that but a lot of talk is put on players being responsible in both ends of the ice.

I am probably over playing the correlation between blocked shots and defensive positioning. Except for Bouma obviously.

[The Fonz]

I'd wager a bet that the top 10 teams in the league in shooting% have a worse corsi% than the bottom 10 teams in the league in shooting%.

If you really think about it, the 2 metrics should go in opposite directions of each other. A team that scores a higher percentage of the time, is probably not taking shots from the perimeter, but rather cycling the puck until a higher quality scoring chance presents itself. Obviously though, this will in turn lower your corsi as you're attempting fewer shots.

In theory, the truly elite teams would be the ones with both a high corsi%, as well as a high shooting%.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I'd wager a bet that the top 10 teams in the league in shooting% have a worse corsi% than the bottom 10 teams in the league in shooting%.

Using the numbers from this site, you appear to be correct: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Currently, 6 of the top 10 (3 of the top 7) Shooting% teams have Corsi% over 50%, but 8 of the bottom 10 (7 of the bottom 8) Shooting% teams have Corsi% over 50%.

Chicago is the only team with a Corsi over 55%, and they're 24th in Shooting%. Three teams (Calgary, Colorado, Buffalo) have Corsi under 45%, and two of them (CGY, COL) are in the top 10 in Shooting%.

[HelloHockeyFans]

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC · 55s 55 seconds ago
The fancy stats debate and how it applies to Edmonton is really interesting to me. If this doesn't turn around, does it damage the movement?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by getbak

Using the numbers from this site, you appear to be correct: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

Currently, 6 of the top 10 (3 of the top 7) Shooting% teams have Corsi% over 50%, but 8 of the bottom 10 (7 of the bottom 8) Shooting% teams have Corsi% over 50%.

Chicago is the only team with a Corsi over 55%, and they're 24th in Shooting%. Three teams (Calgary, Colorado, Buffalo) have Corsi under 45%, and two of them (CGY, COL) are in the top 10 in Shooting%.

Once again, I'll ask the question: are there other factors at play here?

Style of play, perhaps?

Seems to me that there might be a positive correlation between scoring off the rush / transitional teams (possibly defined by team speed), and shooting percentage.

Remember when the Flames were a cycle team and got lots of shots but had trouble scoring? Good times.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by HelloHockeyFans

Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC · 55s 55 seconds ago
The fancy stats debate and how it applies to Edmonton is really interesting to me. If this doesn't turn around, does it damage the movement?

Seriously, is there anyone in hockey - ANYONE (outside of Edmonton) - that thinks the Oilers Corsi is reflective of bad luck and that they're going to turn it around?

Watch them play for 10 minutes and it becomes painfully obvious that they are no good at the hockey.

[Blixa]

Usually these advenced stats is used for 5vs5 play. Power Play and Shorthanded are separated from these stats, and About 20% of the goals are Power Play Goals.

Things that make difference
- 5vs5 (corsi, Fenwick)
- Goaltending (save %)
- Power Play
- Penalty Kill
- Shooting%

It´s not that easy, but you can´t compare teams only with 5vs5 play. etc Corsi and Fenwick.
Last season San Jose gave up 31 goals 4vs5 and Florida 58, this season Chicago has 6 goals against and New Jersey 22, thats for Chicago 20 goals in 82 games and for Jersey 75 goals.

[hummdeedoo]

I guess there are no advanced stats for it but my eyes tell me that we generally get higher quality scoring chances than the teams we are playing against.

How many times have we seen a quality pass spring a speeding forward resulting in a partial or complete breakaway. Think how far into the offensive zone Brodie and Gio can get to generate close in chances. Wideman scores from the point but Brodie and Gio are almost like a 4th forward in the offensive zone.

The Flames aren't really a puck possession team they are more like a puck pressure team - there is never a Flame far from the puck. They strike quickly on the counter and get back just as fast.

I think of teams like LA and Anaheim as more traditional puck possession teams - winning board battles and cycling the puck generating shots on goal.

I think our style of play won't give us great advanced stat numbers but it seems to be a winning style so far - it might be unique as well - for starters you'll need 2 defenseman like Gio/Brodie and it's hard to find even 1.

[Bingo]

Special to the Toronto Star hammering the Flames.

Smoke and Mirrors

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...hot_start.html

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Special to the Toronto Star hammering the Flames.

Smoke and Mirrors

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...hot_start.html

Meh. Uninformed opinion is uninformed.

Click bait

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Special to the Toronto Star hammering the Flames.

Smoke and Mirrors

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey...hot_start.html

I actually have a lot of patience for fancy stats, more than most I think, but... when I see things like this

Finally, speaking specifically to each team’s rebuild, Edmonton’s CF% is 2.7% higher than last season’s, whereas Calgary’s is 2.6% lower. Somebody needs to explain to me where all those “guts” and “courage” and “character” are reflected in those numbers.

are we really supposed to take away that the +50 goal differential between the two teams is entirely due to 'puck luck' that seems almost more absurd than attributing it to 'guts' and 'courage'

there clearly is a difference in on ice performance between the Flames and Oilers that is not capture in corsi- and by the games that I've watched, its not all luck that will regress to the mean

so I guess the challenge is on for the advanced stats folks to tease out what else it might be

I know the current story is that shot quality isn't a real issue but I imagine that must be part of it. I haven't watched the Oilers as much this year as other years, but I see enough ridiculous high percentage chances against them when I do watch that something is going on

[Radically Red]

If we continue on the path we currently are on and do manage to stay where we are does this guy write an article to say he was Wrong?? I wont hold my breath. So easy to write this stuff when you don't have to back it up 4 months later.

Stats don't always tell the whole story.

[Bingo]

As my article attempted to point out ... the sight test doesn't match to the statistics, and a guy submitting to the Toronto Star likely hasn't seen a lot of Flames hockey.

Last night was different, the Flames were awful in the second and were lucky to win that hockey game. No doubt.

But that was the exception in the last 30 days not the rule.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

As my article attempted to point out ... the sight test doesn't match to the statistics, and a guy submitting to the Toronto Star likely hasn't seen a lot of Flames hockey.

Last night was different, the Flames were awful in the second and were lucky to win that hockey game. No doubt.

But that was the exception in the last 30 days not the rule.

The standings don't reflect the teams play really tough. We haven't been the "better" team in 17 of 27 games. However, the author would suggest the flames are bottom 3 as corsi is what matters. Clearly the standings are closer to the true underlying play than corsi

[Red Menace]

The bottom line for me is that all of these stats are predicated on the belief that whoever has the most shots in a game is controlling the play / the better team.
As anyone who has actually watched hockey can tell you that is very often not the case.

Also why is there this assumption that a PDO over 1.000 means you are lucky?
Can't it also mean that you are just an above average team? I don't think all teams will regress to the mean....the good teams will stay above and the poor will stay below.

I certainly have been surprised at the Flames success this year; but watching every game as i have, there have been very few Wins where they have been badly outplayed, I'm sure no more than any other team has.

I love all these new stats too; but clearly lots more work is needed.
They need to actually track where the puck is and who controls it for the entire game, and to track where the shots are coming from before any of these stats can have a more direct impact on real life results.

[Bingo]

any team that comes from behind as many times as they have are riding a wave of luck, can't really argue that.

but away from that they are actually controlling the play more often than not, and attacking with a tape to tape rapid transition game. When they attack its with speed and its pretty damn dangerous.

I think a lot of it comes down to the emergence of shot blocking as an elite NHL skill, and the reaction of NHL coaches to teams that do it well. The Flames can skate so they are tough to beat on the rush, and they are fearless in their own zone, so I think teams start shooting from everywhere trying to bring some luck in averages to it.

Meanwhile the Flames tend to move the puck into the best shooting zone and not fire from the blueline on every rush on the way in.

Its really muddying the waters.

Bottom line for me though? Who cares? They've won the games, and they are where they are, and soon they will have enough space to even handle a skid without burying their season. But the biggest thing is development. You can't buy this kind of stretch for making young players not only NHL ready, but impact. They can't take that away from them.

[JayP]

For everyone's reference, the Flames scoring chance % at even strength is around 47% and is at 49% in all situations (the chances are counted on the FlamesNation site). Obviously you'd like to see these above 50%, but it's not nearly as dire as the Corsi numbers suggest. Scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick do tend to match each other over the long run, but for a quarter of the season for a single team I think the scoring chance % is a better representation of the Flames play.

The Flames numbers are moving in the right direction too over the course of the season:
5-on-5:
Overall: 46.8%
Last 20 games: 48.0%
Last 10 games: 50.0%
Last 5 games: 48.4%

All situations
Overall: 49.0%
Last 20 games: 50.8%
Last 10 games: 52.4%
Last 5 games: 52.1%

Obviously score effects aren't considered which would make a difference, but from what I've seen is that there doesn't seem to be as big an effect on scoring chances than with shot attempts. This makes sense logically - teams don't sit back and protect leads by giving up scoring chances. They give up possession and the outside shots.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

any team that comes from behind as many times as they have are riding a wave of luck, can't really argue that.

but away from that they are actually controlling the play more often than not, and attacking with a tape to tape rapid transition game. When they attack its with speed and its pretty damn dangerous.

I think a lot of it comes down to the emergence of shot blocking as an elite NHL skill, and the reaction of NHL coaches to teams that do it well. The Flames can skate so they are tough to beat on the rush, and they are fearless in their own zone, so I think teams start shooting from everywhere trying to bring some luck in averages to it.

Meanwhile the Flames tend to move the puck into the best shooting zone and not fire from the blueline on every rush on the way in.

Its really muddying the waters.

Bottom line for me though? Who cares? They've won the games, and they are where they are, and soon they will have enough space to even handle a skid without burying their season. But the biggest thing is development. You can't buy this kind of stretch for making young players not only NHL ready, but impact. They can't take that away from them.

Forget about whether their success is "luck" or not for a minute. Corsi suggests this team should be bottom 4. After watching them, how can any sane and rational person suggest that??