Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd9

[kermitology]

Went with Ortio. I think Gillies has a higher talent level, but as with most goaltenders his road to the NHL is very cloudy. I think Ortio's is clearer right now. He looks like he'll play in the NHL sooner rather than later.

[Miniac]

Gillies again.

[neo45]

Gilles. This is a make or break year for Ortio IMO

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I am surprised with how many people are siding with Ortio in the great goalie debate.

Yes, he had a great year in Abby, but frankly, so did Irving.

It seems that when it comes to goalies, a lot of people ignore the tools and just look at stats/results.

Gillies is 6'5" has good athleticism, and great fundamentals for a kid his age.

It's like having two defensive prospects where the older one maybe has better numbers but the younger one is bigger and faster.

I really think it comes down to the underlying rationale that people are applying to this exercise.

Some clearly value ceiling more than stats-to-date*. Others tend to do the reverse. I find it very hard to accurately know what a player's ceiling is, and therefore weigh performance much more heavily.


* on a sliding scale of viewing NHL performance as more important than AHL, and on down.

[Read Only]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Respectfully disagree. They both did very well playing in men's leagues last year but Gillies is three years younger then Ortio and has a significant physical advantage on him considering how much more of the net he fills out. He's got more upside then Ortio.

I see both as having upside of good, not great (top 5/all star) NHL starters.

Ortio has shown that he can play at the AHL level and at worst is a decent NHL back-up.

Gillies has shown he is good in the regular season NCAA and struggled badly at the WJHC. Yes he has size but we have seen plenty of big guys not succeed recently (Dubnyk, Lindback) so I prefer to see him transfer those skills to pro hockey before giving him the benefit of the doubt for being big.

[ricardodw]

Interesting how the hype machine works:

1. Gaudreau - far exceeded expectations (especially at the Worlds) moved up from 3 to #1 passing only Baertschi. (Monahan graduated). Huge relief that he signed with the flames rather than waiting a year to pick his team. Johnny likes us

2. Bennett - still 2-3 years from the NHL but other than being physically weaker than anticipated hasn't done anything to move up or down since he was drafted 4th overall. last year Monahan #6 had a better impact hype and lived up to it.

3. Baertschi - huge disappointment. Took a big step backward and did not meet AHL expectations. Left over hype from the past 2 years left him only being passed by Gaudreau.

4. Poirier - did what was expected.... Did not exceed expectations. Should have been able to force his way on the Canadian Jr squad. Had no impact on the AHL playoffs... jumped from 9 to 4. Is this a sign of a weaker prospect poll this year or some sort of Poirier hype machine?

5. Granlund - exceeded expectations the most (other than Bouma and Gaudreau) Jumped into North American hockey and was a leader on the Heat. Jumped from 12th to 5th. Based on the last year should be ahead of Baertschi.

6. Klimchuk - same as Poirier. Did what was expected.. How this justified a jump from 10 to 6 I can't explain. Maybe CP has developed very low expectations for late 1st round picks. Klimchuck/Poirier look solid compared to Jankowski?

7. Wotherspoon - exceeded expectations. Improved over the year and may be close to NHL ready. Dropped from 6 to 7???

8. Reinhart - greatly exceeded expectations. If Poirier delivers as good a year as Reinhart did 2012-13 based on his #4 place Finish this year he will be in the mix with Bennett and the 2015 #1 pick for best prospect overall. Reinhart fought against the anti-hype to move up from 14 to 8. Have the Flames ever had a young guy leading the AHL team in scoring with almost a ppg that has not been their #1 prospect?

Now we have Gillies who fully met exceptions and was #4 last year dropping at least 5 places.... go figure. Why were we so excited about him last year? Did we expected he was going to have a .950 sav % (He had .936 same as the year before) His GA ballooned from 2.08 to 2.16. His win % went way up to 19-9-5 from 17-12-6 but he did lose 9 games. Maybe he was a better prospect last year as we did not have a legitimate Goalie prospect outside of him.. Brossoit was #17 in this poll mainly based on hope and his play as a 20 year old on the Oil Kings.

[flambers]

Gillies again..... In my view Gilles has far more upside

[trackercowe]

4th time in a row for Ortio!

[You Need a Thneed]

In round 9, and there are still 6-7 guys unpicked who have played an NHL game, or have been called up to the NHL.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

Some clearly value ceiling more than stats-to-date*. Others tend to do the reverse.

This explains why the Reinhart voters appear to be breaking for Ortio. If you think Reinhart's probability of making the NHL is more important than Gillies' chances of becoming a star, then you'd make the same judgement that Ortio is a better prospect than Gillies.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

6. Klimchuk - same as Poirier. Did what was expected.. How this justified a jump from 10 to 6 I can't explain. Maybe CP has developed very low expectations for late 1st round picks. Klimchuck/Poirier look solid compared to Jankowski?

I just think Jankowski is so far away. Admittedly there's probably a little bias because I still dislike the pick. However, I do dispute that all Poirier did was meet expectations. For me, anyways, he greatly exceeded them last year.

Perhaps it's that Jankowski was a "off the board" pick in a weaker draft and Poirier and Klimchuk were from a strong draft?

If Jankowski really turns the corner this year, I could see him move up significantly. Right now, frankly, as a prospect, he's "boring".

[Ulrith]

Ortio for me. Maybe just cause I've seen more of him than Gillies, but everything about him reminds me of Kipper so far- his style, his speed, his demeanor...

Here's hoping he continues on to become Kipper 2.0

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by fotze

I think you have deluded yourself into thinking your view on the prospects is infallible. Its really quite bizarre.

I am providing my analysis. What is your problem?



Did Baertschi, Poirier or Klimchuck exceed your expectations? How little did you expect?

What expectations would you have for them this year?

Klimchuck to put up 50 goals 100 pts in 60 CHL games?

Poirier and/or Baertschi to score 20 goals 50 pts in the AHL in 40 games before joining the Flames for good?

That was what I and I think the bulk of CP and Flames management were expecting from Baertschi when he was sent down... After all he was our clear cut best prospect (82%) after Monahan who went straight to the NHL.

[Savvy27]

Voted for Ortio again. Best win % in the AHL, 2nd best save percentage, 6th best GAA, undefeated in shootouts. In his first full season playing in north america he established himself as an elite AHL goaltender and a competent NHL goaltender. Can't wait to see where he goes from here.

Plus he reminds me of Kipper in demeanour and style.

[Table 5]

nm, misread.

[Read Only]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am providing my analysis. What is your problem?



Did Baertschi, Poirier or Klimchuck exceed your expectations? How little did you expect?

What expectations would you have for them this year?

Klimchuck to put up 50 goals 100 pts in 60 CHL games?

Poirier and/or Baertschi to score 20 goals 50 pts in the AHL in 40 games before joining the Flames for good?

That was what I and I think the bulk of CP and Flames management were expecting from Baertschi when he was sent down... After all he was our clear cut best prospect (82%) after Monahan who went straight to the NHL.

I don't think blaming people who don't agree with your rankings as voting because of hype is really analysis.

As for some you seem to have a problem with:

I would say Poirier did exceed expectations of many because of his overall play and ability to produce on a team with not a lot of help. He also showed a well rounded game rather than just pure offense which is encouraging going forward.

I think for him and Klimchuk (and any guy who was just drafted) living up to expectations and showing dvelopment is a big step forward and moves you up the list because there wasn't much of a track record to go off of the year before.

Yes going off last year Granlund is ahead fo Baertschi but this isn't based solely on last year and it is pretty short sighted to base it on that. Most people who voted for Baertschi have said that this is a make it or break it year and that he still gets some benefit of the doubt based on the natural skill he has shown which he should. And while it was nice the season that Granlund had last year he had some pretty average seasons before that.

For Gillies didn't meet expectations at all (and was way over ranked last season). He had a really bad WJHC and seemed to have similar year to last for his NCAA team.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by gargamel

This explains why the Reinhart voters appear to be breaking for Ortio. If you think Reinhart's probability of making the NHL is more important than Gillies' chances of becoming a star, then you'd make the same judgement that Ortio is a better prospect than Gillies.

I think so. For example, I have yet to vote for Bennett, Klimchuk or Reinhart. But it's the nature of the survey.

Admittedly, I also punish the player (unfairly) if I've not seen them play a whole lot, if at all. That really precluded me from giving strong consideration to Bennett or Klimchuk at the places where they ranked, and definitely made me tilt Ortio over Gillies.

Just a matter of how I choose to compensate for my ignorance in regards to some of these players

[StrykerSteve]

Kipper Jr, again. Hopefully for the last time.

[Neeper]

So far the poll is going my way. Ortio has my vote. I think he could be really good. I liked that he did last year in Abby and liked what I saw when he played in the show.

After that it's Gilles for me and then Ferland or Jankowski.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Interesting how the hype machine works:

1. Gaudreau - far exceeded expectations (especially at the Worlds) moved up from 3 to #1 passing only Baertschi. (Monahan graduated). Huge relief that he signed with the flames rather than waiting a year to pick his team. Johnny likes us

2. Bennett - still 2-3 years from the NHL but other than being physically weaker than anticipated hasn't done anything to move up or down since he was drafted 4th overall. last year Monahan #6 had a better impact hype and lived up to it.

3. Baertschi - huge disappointment. Took a big step backward and did not meet AHL expectations. Left over hype from the past 2 years left him only being passed by Gaudreau.

4. Poirier - did what was expected.... Did not exceed expectations. Should have been able to force his way on the Canadian Jr squad. Had no impact on the AHL playoffs... jumped from 9 to 4. Is this a sign of a weaker prospect poll this year or some sort of Poirier hype machine?

5. Granlund - exceeded expectations the most (other than Bouma and Gaudreau) Jumped into North American hockey and was a leader on the Heat. Jumped from 12th to 5th. Based on the last year should be ahead of Baertschi.

6. Klimchuk - same as Poirier. Did what was expected.. How this justified a jump from 10 to 6 I can't explain. Maybe CP has developed very low expectations for late 1st round picks. Klimchuck/Poirier look solid compared to Jankowski?

7. Wotherspoon - exceeded expectations. Improved over the year and may be close to NHL ready. Dropped from 6 to 7???

8. Reinhart - greatly exceeded expectations. If Poirier delivers as good a year as Reinhart did 2012-13 based on his #4 place Finish this year he will be in the mix with Bennett and the 2015 #1 pick for best prospect overall. Reinhart fought against the anti-hype to move up from 14 to 8. Have the Flames ever had a young guy leading the AHL team in scoring with almost a ppg that has not been their #1 prospect?

Now we have Gillies who fully met exceptions and was #4 last year dropping at least 5 places.... go figure. Why were we so excited about him last year? Did we expected he was going to have a .950 sav % (He had .936 same as the year before) His GA ballooned from 2.08 to 2.16. His win % went way up to 19-9-5 from 17-12-6 but he did lose 9 games. Maybe he was a better prospect last year as we did not have a legitimate Goalie prospect outside of him.. Brossoit was #17 in this poll mainly based on hope and his play as a 20 year old on the Oil Kings.

Expectations are only a small part of the analysis for me. Past year's performance, age, trends, and new prospects in the system obviously affect where a player will land on the list. The problem is that a persons expectations can vary greatly and then whether that prospect exceeded/failed expectations can also vary. Where a prospect is drafted almost certainly influences his ranking, but for me I am considering what impact that player can make in the NHL and what are the odds of making it. Certainly benefits the high skill over the grit, but that is me.

If I understand your position, you think Baertschi is over rated and Reinhart under rated? That is a defensible opinion, but I disagree because I think he still has the scoring upside (based on what he has done at the NHL level) and was sent to the AHL to learn the 200 ft game. For Reinhart (and I hope I am wrong), I still see a slightly better B. Jones tweener (based on what he has done at the NHL level). Small sample sizes for sure, but that is my opinion/fear.

Hype machine has nothing to do with it. For the most part, I think CPers are doing a good job with the picks, even though I don't always agree with them.