Flames prospects NHLE chart

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SebC

Yeah. Which is a bit odd when you think about what NHL-equivalent scoring is.

Maybe it just shows that the AHL NHLE requires an adjustment? My impression for a number of years now is that it is a very difficult league in which to score goals. The fact that there are only one, two or a handful of point/game players in the AHL each year would also seem to confirm this.

[Oil Stain]

The NHLE is supposed to measure estimated production of a player if he changes leagues and still is given the same role and amount of ice time as his previous league.

Guys like Knight, Jooris, and Reinhart have serious drops in their production when entering the AHL because they go from being go to guys in their previous leagues to depth/role players in the AHL. Losing PP time in particular is a massive hit to a player's PPG average.

The NHLE only works if the player receives the same amount of ice time in the next league.

For that reason I believe it isn't really a great predictor of future success, but it's an interesting way of qualifying the caliber of different leagues nonetheless.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The NHLE is supposed to measure estimated production of a player if he changes leagues and still is given the same role and amount of ice time as his previous league.

Guys like Knight, Jooris, and Reinhart have serious drops in their production when entering the AHL because they go from being go to guys in their previous leagues to depth/role players in the AHL. Losing PP time in particular is a massive hit to a player's PPG average.

The NHLE only works if the player receives the same amount of ice time in the next league.

For that reason I believe it isn't really a great predictor of future success, but it's an interesting way of qualifying the caliber of different leagues nonetheless.

It actually doesn't take into account if a players has the same role or not. Its just a historic average of all players.

There will be Anomalies for the better and for the worse, its just an average. Could be because of playing time,
or how well the player handles the change,
or who the player is playing with.


Look at Tomas Hertl

Czech 2012 .65
Czech 2013.69
NHL 2014 .67

Czech NHLe .61, so he beat that by 45%

I've gotta think he wasn't leaned on anymore playing with one of the deepest offensive teams in the league, so maybe playing with a guy like Thornton could skew your stats?

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by #-3

It actually doesn't take into account if a players has the same role or not. Its just a historic average of all players.

There will be Anomalies for the better and for the worse, its just an average. Could be because of playing time,
or how well the player handles the change,
or who the player is playing with.


Look at Tomas Hertl

Czech 2012 .65
Czech 2013.69
NHL 2014 .67

Czech NHLe .61, so he beat that by 45%

I've gotta think he wasn't leaned on anymore playing with one of the deepest offensive teams in the league, so maybe playing with a guy like Thornton could skew your stats?

Hertl got top 6 linemates and plenty of PP time on the Sharks. He pretty much walked into a dream scenario for an offensive rookie.

[united]

Yeah, NHLE doesn't assume similar playing circumstances, but a player's would be harmed or helped by a drastic change in circumstances.

Jooris' drop is explained by using the ECAC-specific equivalency of 0.25 instead of the all-round college equivalency of 0.41. Using the revised version gives him:
2010-11 - 16.4
2011-12 - 15.1
2012-13 - 14.7
2013-14 - 13.7

The AHL translation is the toughest because it's really the only development league where you have a bunch of prospects mixed with a few journeymen or goons and not much in between. The broad AHL translation is an average of all players who moved from the AHL to NHL, which of course assumes a 21-year-old blue chip prospect would get the same opportunity and resulting NHL scoring as a 30-year-old journeyman. Of course the 21-year-old is probably getting called up to play 2nd or 3rd line minutes and power play, while the journeyman is getting 4th line minutes and penalty kill.

A bunch of research has been done on translation by age as well as points-per-game AHL scoring, and setting different NHLEs for each. I don't have the information in visual form, but wrote it down last night. For the 19-22-year-old age group, the following formula applies: [(AHL pts/game*0.32)+0.11]*82
That usually breaks down close to:
AHL pts/game-----NHLE
0.7+--------------0.45
0.6-0.69----------0.53
0.3-0.59----------0.57

Using Reinhart as an example, we now get:
2008-09 - 9.3
2009-10 - 15.1
2010-11 - 23.7
2011-12 - 27.3
2012-13 - 17.2
2013-14 - 34.1
He shows awesome progression then there is the noted sudden drop, followed by progression. Knight also had the noted big drop. I assume they are the exception and not the norm, and Troy Ward leaned heavily on the journeymen while pushing the first-year pros to the depth lines. But an avid Heat watcher could confirm or deny that.

[Bingo]

Another name that jumped out to me is Agostino ...

His NHLe is certainly going the right direction, but then you add his positive reviews from prospect camp and you have to wonder if Klimchuck (pick) and Agostino (prospect) will make that Iginla deal a gooder in teh future.