[Signing] Oilers sign RNH to contract extension (7 yrs)

[T@T]

Bad news for Flames fans. hearing the new contract includes a sex-change clause.

[getbak]

It's going to be great next year when Yak demands an 8 year deal with an $8M cap hit.

[ricardodw]

basic math.

He signed for 42m for 7 years.

If he signed for 2 years at 5M. ... Similar to Bogosian and Wheeler for the Jets 2nd contract that would leave the 37 M for the remaining 5 years ie 7.4 M /year. basically top 10 in the league money.... more than Iginla got after having 52 and 50 goal seasons and having one of the all time best playoff runs ever.

RHN can put together back to back 20 goal 60 pt seasons and the oilers have already decided that after that they want to sign him to a 5 year 7.4 M ... him still being a RFA.

The cap when Iginla signed is 5 year 7m contract was 56.7 .... not that much lower than the 64.3 that is in place today.


RHN after 102 NHL games scoring 22 goals and having 76 points and an RFA coming off a ELC is getting paid the same as Iginla who was about to become a 31 year old UFA coming off a 50 goal 98 pt season.

Glad Edmonton is doing this and not the Flames.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by WilderPegasus

When someone is foolish enough to pick Edmonton for seven years you jump on it before they come to their senses!

I actually think there's something to that. They may be gun shy and try to lock these guys down to a window before they have second thoughts.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by getbak

It's going to be great next year when Yak demands an 8 year deal with an $8M cap hit.

That's your hope anyway.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Because in the last 3-4 years of these deals, when the cap is $80 million dollars, these contracts are going to be giant steals.

Why are all the Oilers fans I've talked to today assuming that the NHL salary cap is going to advance so fast to these lofty heights? There seems to be a lot of assumption but no crystal balls to provide any evidence that this is set in stone. How exactly are teams like the Panthers, Coyotes, Stars, Avalanch, etc going to be able to ice competitive teams (without undergoing complete 180 in attendance figures) with an $80 million cap?

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are all the Oilers fans I've talked to today assuming that the NHL salary cap is going to advance so fast to these lofty heights? There seems to be a lot of assumption but no crystal balls to provide any evidence that this is set in stone.

I think it was Elliotte Friedman who said he thought it would be $80MM by the 2017-2018 season. That seems pretty plausible to me. I'm not an Oiler fan. If revenues grow by 5% annually it'll break 80M in 2019, but that seems a bit conservative as an estimate - under the last CBA the average growth was 7.2% annually so Elliotte's prediction makes sense to me.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Because in the last 3-4 years of these deals, when the cap is $80 million dollars, these contracts are going to be giant steals.

Hall's contract already looks amazing. He has the 31st highest cap hit among forwards. When it expires it will be more like 50+. Good luck re-signing a point per game player for anything resembling $6 million in 2018.

I think a bridge contract makes a lot more sense if you have a team that is competing for the cup right now, and need the space short term. The bridge deal hurt both Philly (Giroux is now @$8) and likely Montreal with Subban.


The Oilers giving these guys long term deals will give them quite a bit of cap flex 3-4 years down the road when these players are really hitting their primes.

P.S. Hall had the same type of shoulder injury but more severe. Not too worried about RNH.

So somehow RHN , who has not had a season anywhere as good as Giroux's or Subban's has earning this $ on potential.


Extend him for 2 years at 5M (2.5/year)... If he puts up Giroux type seasons 93 pts in 82 games and 48 pts in 48 games then you would have to pay him 8M/yr for the next 5 years.

total for the 7 years if he somehow turns out as good as Giroux is 45M.... as opposed to the 42 M he get if he turns out to be as good a Horcoff or Benoit Pouliot or Brule.

What indications has RNH given that he is Giroux quality?

Daigle (first pick overall in 1993) had a much better start to his NHL career than RHN..... in his first 2 seasons 131 games 36 goals 88 pts.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

I think it was Elliotte Friedman who said he thought it would be $80MM by the 2017-2018 season. That seems pretty plausible to me. I'm not an Oiler fan.

I like Friedman but there's a lot to be determined before 2017-2018 rolls around. Not even the NFL dares predict that far and they have a much more stable model. I'm not sure that teams like the Flames and Jets will be able to viably spend to $80 million in their current buildings.

[Caged Great]

The Oilers will be a decent team, but they don't have the ability to afford a proper supporting cast that would push them over the top.

[The Coppernian One]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

basic math.

He signed for 42m for 7 years.

If he signed for 2 years at 5M. ... Similar to Bogosian and Wheeler for the Jets 2nd contract that would leave the 37 M for the remaining 5 years ie 7.4 M /year. basically top 10 in the league money.... more than Iginla got after having 52 and 50 goal seasons and having one of the all time best playoff runs ever.

A 7.4M cap hit would make him 14th according to capgeek, although it would actually be 6.4M (32/5years).

What this misses is that this is today. With a rising cap next year (which is expected and when this extension kicks in) players will likely be signing for a higher cap hit so you introduce the uncertainty. Even if they could sign him for 6.4M, that's still more than what they did just sign him for.

If RNH is what the Oilers think he is (legitimate 1st line centre), this could save money and create cap flexibility down the road. If he's not, then it won't or could be a burden. Either way, it remains to be seen.

[The Coppernian One]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Extend him for 2 years at 5M (2.5/year.

Since I picked on this in my last post, you said similar to Wheeler and Bogosian, who each have cap hits north of 5M per year, so this is different than your earlier post.

Also, what makes you think that he could be extended for 2 years at 5M total after this season (what incentive would he have to sign your bridge contract before playing this season)?

He's already given indication that he's better than Horcoff and Brule.

[Jacks]

The last time the Oilers "paid for potential" they signed Penner. I don't see how RNH has proven anything yet, might be a great contract in 3 years but it's a gamble IMO.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

basic math.

He signed for 42m for 7 years.

If he signed for 2 years at 5M. ... Similar to Bogosian and Wheeler for the Jets 2nd contract that would leave the 37 M for the remaining 5 years ie 7.4 M /year. basically top 10 in the league money.... more than Iginla got after having 52 and 50 goal seasons and having one of the all time best playoff runs ever.

RHN can put together back to back 20 goal 60 pt seasons and the oilers have already decided that after that they want to sign him to a 5 year 7.4 M ... him still being a RFA.

The cap when Iginla signed is 5 year 7m contract was 56.7 .... not that much lower than the 64.3 that is in place today.


RHN after 102 NHL games scoring 22 goals and having 76 points and an RFA coming off a ELC is getting paid the same as Iginla who was about to become a 31 year old UFA coming off a 50 goal 98 pt season.

Glad Edmonton is doing this and not the Flames.

There is absolutely no point in comparing a contract signed in 2013 with one signed in 2006 or whatever it was. Completely different markets.

[stamphater]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So somehow RHN , who has not had a season anywhere as good as Giroux's or Subban's has earning this $ on potential.


Extend him for 2 years at 5M (2.5/year)... If he puts up Giroux type seasons 93 pts in 82 games and 48 pts in 48 games then you would have to pay him 8M/yr for the next 5 years.

total for the 7 years if he somehow turns out as good as Giroux is 45M.... as opposed to the 42 M he get if he turns out to be as good a Horcoff or Benoit Pouliot or Brule.

What indications has RNH given that he is Giroux quality?

Daigle (first pick overall in 1993) had a much better start to his NHL career than RHN..... in his first 2 seasons 131 games 36 goals 88 pts.

Claude Giroux had 74 points through 124 games in his first two seasons. RNH has 76 points in 102 games through his first two seasons.

Something to ponder...

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are all the Oilers fans I've talked to today assuming that the NHL salary cap is going to advance so fast to these lofty heights? There seems to be a lot of assumption but no crystal balls to provide any evidence that this is set in stone. How exactly are teams like the Panthers, Coyotes, Stars, Avalanch, etc going to be able to ice competitive teams (without undergoing complete 180 in attendance figures) with an $80 million cap?

Its probably because of this article from the Globe&Mail. They feel that it is a pretty conservative guess that the salary cap will be around $75M by 2017-18 and then carry on to $90M.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by stamphater

Claude Giroux had 74 points through 124 games in his first two seasons. RNH has 76 points in 102 games through his first two seasons.

Something to ponder...

Giroux then signed a 3 year @ 3.75M cap hit with essentially the same salary cap.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are all the Oilers fans I've talked to today assuming that the NHL salary cap is going to advance so fast to these lofty heights? There seems to be a lot of assumption but no crystal balls to provide any evidence that this is set in stone. How exactly are teams like the Panthers, Coyotes, Stars, Avalanch, etc going to be able to ice competitive teams (without undergoing complete 180 in attendance figures) with an $80 million cap?

Salaries have increased unabated since we starting using fiat currencies. Its inflation mang!

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by The Coppernian One

A 7.4M cap hit would make him 14th according to capgeek, although it would actually be 6.4M (32/5years).

What this misses is that this is today. With a rising cap next year (which is expected and when this extension kicks in) players will likely be signing for a higher cap hit so you introduce the uncertainty. Even if they could sign him for 6.4M, that's still more than what they did just sign him for.

If RNH is what the Oilers think he is (legitimate 1st line centre), this could save money and create cap flexibility down the road. If he's not, then it won't or could be a burden. Either way, it remains to be seen.

Bogosian and Wheeler signed 2 year deals for a total of 5M that lead them to their current contracts.


You are correct there is no reason to extend RHN at this time.


If he has as good a season as Subban had 2011-12 he is basically forced to sign the same contract as Subban .


Subban had a fantastic year in 2011-12 36 points in 81 games playing 24 minutes a game.


The Canadians gave him a choice: play for them for the next 2 years at 5.7 total or sit the year out or play in the KHL. and then come back and play for the next 2 years at 2.5/yr.


That is what RHN would have if he suddenly develops into Giroux/Crosby and scores 30 goals and 80 pts this year.

The only leverage a player has coming off his ELC is if some team makes him an offer sheet...

If no one made Subban an offer sheet before last season when he was holding out..... nobody is going to mortgage their franchise for RNH.


PS. The whole league has told MacTavish/Lowe this as no one would trade a top flight rugged forward or top 2 pairing D-man for anything that MacTavish had to offer. MacTavish started out with the goal that he was going to make the Oilers more competitive and that he was willing to do some major trades and he came up empty. It is just mind boggling that the Oilers are doubling down on the team and players that they have been league doormats with.

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why are all the Oilers fans I've talked to today assuming that the NHL salary cap is going to advance so fast to these lofty heights? There seems to be a lot of assumption but no crystal balls to provide any evidence that this is set in stone. How exactly are teams like the Panthers, Coyotes, Stars, Avalanch, etc going to be able to ice competitive teams (without undergoing complete 180 in attendance figures) with an $80 million cap?

Avalanche? No, they'll have no problems.