Flames Prospect Polls comparison

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

They have played pro games because they are older and have progressed to that point (and I am not taking anything away from them, it is an accomplishment to progress that far).

But in analyzing prospects, you have to consider the potential, along with the current progression.

To blindly say that Cundari has played in the NHL and is therefore a better prospect than Wotherspoon (based simply on that fact) is silly.

I think that if you offered up the 4 I referenced, as trade bait for the 4 you support, that pretty much every GM in the league would happily make that trade

The first four players you mentioned are better prospects not because they are older, but because of survivorship.

They're not just older, but rather they are the players from a previous cohort who have proven they can rise to the next level. Horak has proven he can play a bottom-6 role in the NHL, and is still improving.

I'd say its almost a 50-50 bet that Horak by himself finishes with more GP and points at the NHL level than that entire 2nd group of players combined. And I don't have any lofty expectations for Horak.

It's just a long road to the top, and guys like Seiloff and Wotherspoon are a very, very long way away.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

So they base their rankings on priorities differently, yet as you said in the bold validly, and they are just wrong?

Bit of interesting logic on your part. I get it, you prefer potential, doesn't make you more right.

Did I say they were wrong?

You put words in my mouth and then challenge my logic?

(I said they were the outliers and I said their results were ridiculous as a result, but I also said it was an opinion which means my critique is also, by definition, opinion)

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

You do know that they don't only play teams in HE right? That's not how NCAA hockey works.

He had his big games against Sacred Heart (bottom feeder), and North Eastern (bottom feeder). He plays the 1st PP unit, and made a good majority of his zone starts in the offensive zone.

He had an ok year for a young guy on a weak team, but he has shown nothing to prove he is a top 10 prospect.

So as a freshman Jankowski was 8th in scoring among all 1st year players in Hockey East and that was from a group of 60+ guys that fall in that category IIRC correctly.


That is far from an "OK" year in my books...and in fact a very good year for a guy who played HS prep a year earlier.

That being said, this year will tell more about where he looks to be headed.
And yes, he most certainly is a freaking top 10 prospect for the Flames, its absurd to suggest otherwise. If he flames out this season, then fine you can start to make a case for a lower ranking, but until then lets keep a grasp on reality here.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Jankowski is ranked so low because he didn't have a great Freshman year. He racked up points against the weakest teams in the NCAA and was fed butter soft top 6 minutes.

Actually he had a pretty good year considering two major factors.
1) His age. He was a true freshman, younger than a lot of players in their freshman year
2) His level of competition prior to that year in Quebec prep school.

Don't really agree with your assessment.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So as a freshman Jankowski was 8th in scoring among all 1st year players in Hockey East and that was from a group of 60+ guys that fall in that category IIRC correctly.


That is far from an "OK" year in my books...and in fact a very good year for a guy who played HS prep a year earlier.

That being said, this year will tell more about where he looks to be headed.
And yes, he most certainly is a freaking top 10 prospect for the Flames, its absurd to suggest otherwise. If he flames out this season, then fine you can start to make a case for a lower ranking, but until then lets keep a grasp on reality here.

Jankowski was given a tonne of top 6 time and spent a good majority of the season on the top PP unit. This is not something often done for freshman players. And is a good reason why he ended up with as many points as he did.

If he hadn't been coddled by the coaching staff, he might have struggled even worse.

Agreed, this year will show us what he's got. But don't tell me to keep a grasp on reality when I actually spent time watching the kid play hockey this year. He isn't a top 10 prospect in my mind. If you don't agree, I could care less.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Except Cundari has already shown he can play in the AHL and quite successfully. That's a huge step in any prospects progression. Wotherspoon may crash and burn in the AHL like many of our promising D prospects before him.

Thus Cundari is the better prospect at this point.

Disagree. The likelihood of Wotherspoon "crashing and burning" in the AHL is quite slim IMO. Have you seen the kid play? He was very good in the WJC against the best in the world in his age group last winter and had a very good playoffs and mem cup against some great competition in the CHL.

Wotherspoon is the better prospect because he has top 4 upside and he's a likely NHLer. Cundari has proven more but is also older. His upside isn't nearly as high IMO.

I find it hard to believe anybody who's watched a fair amount of both players would consider Cundari the better prospect.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Actually he had a pretty good year considering two major factors.
1) His age. He was a true freshman, younger than a lot of players in their freshman year
2) His level of competition prior to that year in Quebec prep school.

Don't really agree with your assessment.

If he wasn't a controversial first round pick, this conversation probably isn't even happening. We wouldn't have such high expectations of the kid.

But he is, so we do. I found his play and his season a bit wanting.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Disagree. The likelihood of Wotherspoon "crashing and burning" in the AHL is quite slim IMO. Have you seen the kid play? He was very good in the WJC against the best in the world in his age group last winter and had a very good playoffs and mem cup against some great competition in the CHL.

Wotherspoon is the better prospect because he has top 4 upside and he's a likely NHLer. Cundari has proven more but is also older. His upside isn't nearly as high IMO.

I find it hard to believe anybody who's watched a fair amount of both players would consider Cundari the better prospect.

I watched him play. WJC and live. He's only an average to below average skater. This may cause him some struggle when he first hits pro. I like his defensive hickey sense though. He seems to read the play in the D zone well. But I'm no scout.

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This link has a great summary of past Calgarypuck prospect rankings. Most of the links work which is amazing given all the changes around here.

http://www.calgarypuck.com/archive/Future.htm

Two observations here:

1) What an awful group of prospects we had back then compared to now.
2) It's kind of funny that the best of the group in hindsight (Giordano) was ranked 14th!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Jankowski was given a tonne of top 6 time and spent a good majority of the season on the top PP unit. This is not something often done for freshman players. And is a good reason why he ended up with as many points as he did.

If he hadn't been coddled by the coaching staff, he might have struggled even worse.

Agreed, this year will show us what he's got. But don't tell me to keep a grasp on reality when I actually spent time watching the kid play hockey this year. He isn't a top 10 prospect in my mind. If you don't agree, I could care less.

You know why players get top 6 minutes and PP time?

Cause they are the best options with particular skill sets to do so on that particular team.

Coddled? Good grief.

And I agree...you could care less. I will wager any amount that if you were to poll every single scouting staff in the NHL to do a Flames top 10 prospect list, Jankowski would be in the top 3 on every one of them. Period. But you know, because you watched him and all, they would all be incorrect.

Good one.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Bingo

This link has a great summary of past Calgarypuck prospect rankings. Most of the links work which is amazing given all the changes around here.

http://www.calgarypuck.com/archive/Future.htm

Love seeing stuff like this!

If we were to re-rank today...

Rank - Player - (2006 Rank)

1 - Giordano - (14)
2 - Prust - (10)
3 - Moss - (unranked)
4 - Nystrom - (3)
5 - Pardy - (unranked)

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by transplant99

You know why players get top 6 minutes and PP time?

Cause they are the best options with particular skill sets to do so on that particular team.

Coddled? Good grief.

And I agree...you could care less. I will wager any amount that if you were to poll every single scouting staff in the NHL to do a Flames top 10 prospect list, Jankowski would be in the top 3 on every one of them. Period. But you know, because you watched him and all, they would all be incorrect.

Good one.

Top 3? Doubtful. He isn't a better prospect than Sven, Monahan or Gillies. Only a clueless person would think that.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Top 3? Doubtful. He isn't a better prospect than Sven, Monahan or Gillies. Only a clueless person would think that.

Clueless?

OK then...tells me all i need to know.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I will wager any amount that if you were to poll every single scouting staff in the NHL to do a Flames top 10 prospect list, Jankowski would be in the top 3 on every one of them. Period. But you know, because you watched him and all, they would all be incorrect.

I'd take that bet.

Which 2 would you have Janko ahead of?

Monahan
Baertschi
Gaudreau
Gillies

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by transplant99

And I agree...you could care less. I will wager any amount that if you were to poll every single scouting staff in the NHL to do a Flames top 10 prospect list, Jankowski would be in the top 3 on every one of them. Period. But you know, because you watched him and all, they would all be incorrect.

Baertschi, Monahan, Gaudreau...? He would likely become a very rich man if you made that bet.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I'd take that bet.

Which 2 would you have Janko ahead of?

Monahan
Baertschi
Gaudreau
Gillies

I'd even add Pourier and Klimchuk to the above players. It then becomes which 4 players does Janko beat out?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I'd take that bet.

Which 2 would you have Janko ahead of?

Monahan
Baertschi
Gaudreau
Gillies

Not me necessarily, but how the thinking would go in NHL circles.

Gillies simply because of the position he plays and Gaudreau simply because of size.

Personally I would rank both of them equally and above Jankowski, at this point, but when combining both probability to reach ceiling and progression from draft date, those in the know would reach a different concensus.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Not me necessarily, but how the thinking would go in NHL circles.

Gillies simply because of the position he plays and Gaudreau simply because of size.

Personally I would rank both of them equally and above Jankowski, at this point, but when combining both probability to reach ceiling and progression from draft date, those in the know would reach a different concensus.

Ah I see. You've got some insight into the minds of NHL scouts and GMs. Would you mind sharing this special insight you have?

This whole quoted comment is hilarious.

[The Fonz]

I'd consider myself optimistic about Jankowski's future, but even still, I have him around 7-8

Monahan
Baertschi
Gaudreau
Pourier
Klimchuk
Gillies
Wotherspoon/Jankowski

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Jankowski was given a tonne of top 6 time and spent a good majority of the season on the top PP unit. This is not something often done for freshman players. And is a good reason why he ended up with as many points as he did.

If he hadn't been coddled by the coaching staff, he might have struggled even worse.

Agreed, this year will show us what he's got. But don't tell me to keep a grasp on reality when I actually spent time watching the kid play hockey this year. He isn't a top 10 prospect in my mind. If you don't agree, I could care less.

Curious as to what you would need to see from Jankowski this year for him to be a top 5 or top 10 prospect? I ask, because in a separate thread there was a discussion which made it clear everyone has a different view of "success" for him. 0.75 ppg? 1.0 ppg?
I think the difference of opinion is based mostly on expectation. You correctly point out that his draft position should not matter, but I also think it is appropriate to point out his age and the big jump in competition.