I was not impressed with us picking Granlund pick to begin with, and nothing has changed my opinion of him.
His SM-liiga points are
2011-12: 15 goals, 34 points in 47 games, ~15 min ATOI
2012-13: 10 goals, 30 points in 50 games, ~17 min ATOI
Are there examples of guys with that kind of numbers making it to top 6 in the NHL? If somebody has examples then maybe I'll have more faith, but at this point I'm thinking "bust".
Rough, sorry, yes, I know but seriously.
I don't care how good your brother is and how well you do in a short tournament against kids.
If you're a bonafide top 6 NHL prospect your numbers can't go from .7 PPG to .6 PPG as you grow a year older, get 2 minutes more icetime per game and become the #1 center of your team.
Even if his numbers were a lot better, if you're smallish and not especially fast, you will have a tough time making it in the NHL. You need to be brilliant in something else, and we haven't seen that.
He's a good player, don't get me wrong. I'm sure he'll have a fine career in Europe and in the national team. But I just don't see him in the NHL unless he really kills it next season.
At best I see him sticking around for a few unmemorable but not terrible 0.4-0.5 ppg seasons with around 40-60 GP. At this point that seems like a pipedream.
So personally there's still quite a few guys I'd put before Granlund, simply because guys like Berra, Rämö, Kanzig, Ramage, Reinhart, Arnold and Breen could very well have long, solid careers with some of them even surprising by growing up to be mid-level stars, those important right-behind-the-core guys.
I went with Kanzig because of his intriguing his size and how pleasantly surprised I was with him at the development camp. In my opinion he falls into the same camp as Jankowski does to some extent in that there could be a really high ceiling there but it might take a bit more development time to get there.
I'm weighting that ahead of "NHL" readiness at this point in time when making my selections at this point, particularly now that we are out of the top 10.
Regardless, based on the current poll results, it looks like we are headed straight for another run-off between Agostino and Granlund, two quality choices in their own right.
as recent as two summers ago Max Reinhart was the best or one of the best prospects in the organization; I think many are going with the flavour of the day; he should have been in the top 10
Max Reinhart had a poor offensive season last year. For example he produced slightly worse numbers than Lance Bouma in his first professional season, and we all know that Bouma has very limited skills in that respect.
Max really needs to start the year in the AHL in my opinion, and prove to the organization and himself that he can produce offensively at that level in some capacity. With that said, I definitely think he should go around here, and is probably ahead of anyone else available at this point in his development.
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For people who don't know much about Agostino and want to see more of his work, this video shows his upside well if you haven't seen it already:
To give you some background that is the first round of the NCAA playoffs, Agostino's Yale (18-12-3) were playing one of the tournament favorites in Minnesota (26-8-5). On the first goal, Agostino's read of dropping lower and finding the open room was terrific. The shot that he executed was even better. This was huge for them to get the first goal of the game. Clutch shot.
On the overtime winner watch the slow mo to see the play he makes. He pressures the D into making the turnover. It looks like he makes the Dman think he's going to hit him, but changes direction and takes the puck instead. He makes a quick move around the net and gets it out to his teammate who ends the game.
This guy plays hard every shift and makes things happen when he's on the ice. I see him being a terrific third line player for us.
To add to this, it was Agostino who caused the turnover to create the opportunity for that 1st goal, he didn't just bury it.
His SM-liiga points are
2011-12: 15 goals, 34 points in 47 games, ~15 min ATOI
2012-13: 10 goals, 30 points in 50 games, ~17 min ATOI
Are there examples of guys with that kind of numbers making it to top 6 in the NHL? If somebody has examples then maybe I'll have more faith, but at this point I'm thinking "bust".
If you're a bonafide top 6 NHL prospect your numbers can't go from .7 PPG to .6 PPG as you grow a year older, get 2 minutes more icetime per game and become the #1 center of your team.
Mikko Koivu. In fact his production levels in the FEL were far worse..and this is a player who has a 71 point NHL season under his belt.
Markus Granlund also had significantly better numbers than Tuomo Ruutu did at the age of 18 for example (34 compared to 23), so that is encouraging...but unlike Ruutu he failed to increase his totals the following season.
However when you look a little closer at the individual performances on the HIFK roster last season, you begin to realize that each and every one of the returning players regressed SIGNIFICANTLY except for Markus.
For example...
Markus Granlund regressed from 34 points to 30 points last season (-4)
Ville Peltonen regressed from 48 points to 29 points last season (-19)
Toni Soderholm regressed from 47 points to 27 points last season (-20)
Eero Somervuori regressed from 41 points to 27 points last season (-14)
Kimmo Kuhta regressed from 40 points to 19 points last season (-21)
Given the circumstances I would be extremely reluctant to read to much into his offensive output on that roster this past year. Even after the teams offensive struggles he holds a near identical PPG average in the FEL to Joel Armia (0.65 vs 0.67), and is actually ahead of Teuvo Teravainen as well (0.65 vs 0.58). In addition to that he displayed at the WJC's the past two seasons that he is just as productive and dominant as those players at the international level(s).
I am not his biggest fan by any means and I certainly question if he will be able to translate his skillset to North America, but it is certainly way too early to be labelling him a "bust" at this point. If anything I think his skill set and ability is incredibly underrated by the hockey world.
Last edited by HighLifeMan; 08-14-2013 at 06:24 AM.
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