Nate Silver asks: Why hasn't a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup in 20 years?

[t0rrent98]

I blame Bettman . Enough said.

[zunie75]

I also think that the divisions are a hindrance to the chances of a Canadian team winning the cup. If you look at this year, 7 canadian teams are dispersed in just 3 divisions. So if a Canadian team wins its division and gets one of the top 3 seeds, and other Canadian teams from its division make the playoffs, theres a far greater chance of a Canada vs Canada first couple rounds.

Case in point the East this year. Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal make the post season, but the way the standings worked out and the parity when it comes to point distrabution with the bulk of games being played against your own division, we end up with Montreal vs Toronto. So you go from 3 in 8 shot in the east to only 2 possibly making it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by zunie75

I also think that the divisions are a hindrance to the chances of a Canadian team winning the cup. If you look at this year, 7 canadian teams are dispersed in just 3 divisions. So if a Canadian team wins its division and gets one of the top 3 seeds, and other Canadian teams from its division make the playoffs, theres a far greater chance of a Canada vs Canada first couple rounds...

This is a true dilemma that probably doesn't have a good resolution outside of increasing the number of Canadian teams. The same distribution of teams that has hampered the odds of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup, also encourages and helps to sustain the natural rivalries that are engrained among Canadian teams. With a redistribution to account for higher levels of Canadian content beyond round one of the playoffs, we would also lose the higher number of intra-divisional games that sees the Vancouver Canucks and the Edmonton Oilers at the Saddledome three times in a season. During a long regular season, these always enjoyable, high-intensity games tend to offset some of the malaise that accompanies an unavoidables 82-game schedule.

[Resolute 14]

The number of Canadian teams in a single division is irrelevant in a conference-based playoff format. And if three Canadian teams make the playoffs in one conference, the odds are high that two of them will meet early. That's not poor division alignment, that is simple statistical probability.

The flip side to that argument is that two Canadian teams meeting in the first round guarantees that one will advance. There was no such guarantee if the Habs and Senators had played different, American, opponents.

[Gord Wappel]

How would you test the reverse theory that many are saying in this thread? That the competitive pressure is too high in Canadian markets which ends up being self-defeating?

measure the percentage of backseat drivers (radio, press, media, fans who think they know more than the GM) in a city and compare it to performance.

Hypothesis: teams scoring high in this index will avoid total rebuilds (and consecutive very high draft picks) that most Stanley Cup winners have passed through.