Likely just more sabre-rattling to try and prevent the upcoming UN sanctions from coming into place.
I really don't understand what Kim hopes to achieve by this. He's not gonna get any aid by doing this and the US isn't going to be pushed around by him. He can either back down or push the button which would be suicide.
My only concern is the rest of the world is doing the "yeah, yeah, NK...we know...you're going to kill us all with nukes <rollyeyes>", but you can only cry wolf so many times. If we don't take them seriously, there's a chance they do something in order to make us take them seriously.
North Korea is cancelling a hotline and a nonaggression pact with South Korea and reiterating past threats in anger over a U.N. Security Council vote to impose more sanctions on the North for its third nuclear test
My only concern is the rest of the world is doing the "yeah, yeah, NK...we know...you're going to kill us all with nukes <rollyeyes>", but you can only cry wolf so many times. If we don't take them seriously, there's a chance they do something in order to make us take them seriously.
If they do it will be on a smaller scale.
A North Korean special forces attack.
Maybe a repeat of the tree incident from I think the 70's maybe it was the 80's
Shell a unpopulated area
Torpedo another ship.
They won't go nuts, their antique army would be swept aside in days by South Korea's modern army. North Korea has a decent SAM net but America would probably love to get some Stealth Bomber testing in.
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China will not back them in the event of a war. North Korea would be done in a few days. The only issue would be how many South Koreans they kill in the process. Kim Jong-Un is a pampered brat. Zero chance he is prepared for a state of total war.
That is what was said about the first Korean war. Viet nam, and Iraq
Every time I hear about North Korea talking s#it, I imagine every other rational world power is thinking 'give us a reason, bitch.' What, are they gonna try and incite a global war with the rockets that can't make it out of the harbour? Is China really going to protect North Korea if it did something to piss off any country that can actually afford to buy things from China and not act totally psychotic about it? Of course they aren't.
So make a move, you pussies. Oh right, everyone lined up against you is superior to you in literally every single way imaginable. Just kick back and try to spot the predator drones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zulu29
I really don't understand what Kim hopes to achieve by this. He's not gonna get any aid by doing this and the US isn't going to be pushed around by him. He can either back down or push the button which would be suicide.
He wants to be in Team America 2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RogerWilco
That is what was said about the first Korean war. Viet nam, and Iraq
All of those prior examples were more or less real countries at the time of their respective conflicts. North Korea barely has electricity. While you could make a case for some sort of Somalia-like events in a North Korean conflict, a straight army versus army confrontation would bring the phrase 'legitimate rape' back in vogue.
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Last edited by GreenLantern2814; 03-07-2013 at 11:08 PM.
Maybe a repeat of the tree incident from I think the 70's maybe it was the 80's
Shell a unpopulated area
Torpedo another ship.
They won't go nuts, their antique army would be swept aside in days by South Korea's modern army. North Korea has a decent SAM net but America would probably love to get some Stealth Bomber testing in.
Well, North Korea's army is substantially larger than South Korea's, but you can bet your ass that NATO would in there like white on rice if the DPRK ever tried advancing past the DMZ. As much as China likes to make noise, there's no chance in hell they're going to get as heavily involved (if at all) in another conflict. Ditto for the Russians.
no offence, but I can't think of too many examples of well fed, well trained, well supplied insurgents.
My only concern if this was too kick off would be the civilian deaths/injuries. I think that much of NK's military is shadows and half truths. While some units may be very well fed and supplied, as you moved down the order of battle it will get worse.
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Every time I hear about North Korea talking s#it, I imagine every other rational world power is thinking 'give us a reason, bitch.' What, are they gonna try and incite a global war with the rockets that can't make it out of the harbour? Is China really going to protect North Korea if it did something to piss off any country that can actually afford to buy things from China and not act totally psychotic about it? Of course they aren't.
So make a move, you pussies. Oh right, everyone lined up against you is superior to you in literally every single way imaginable. Just kick back and try to spot the predator drones.
Sure, but just means most of South Korea gets wiped out, if the regime decides they have nothing to lose they can go out in a blaze of serious destruction.
Well, North Korea's army is substantially larger than South Korea's, but you can bet your ass that NATO would in there like white on rice if the DPRK ever tried advancing past the DMZ. As much as China likes to make noise, there's no chance in hell they're going to get as heavily involved (if at all) in another conflict. Ditto for the Russians.
If you look at armour, North Korea has a distinct edge in terms of tanks and AFV's in numbers. However, the majority of the North Korean stock is made up of T-55's andT-62 with some T-72's. these are no match for the M1A1 that the South Korean's deploy in terms of speed, firepower, fire control and armor. The American tank has a longer range and fires better on the move, the M1A1 is also one of the most indestructible tanks in the world. North Korea is rumored to have fielded their own new main battle tank in small numbers, but its equivalent to the T-90 at best and more likely equivalent to a T-80 not a match.
Their main AFV is based around the old Russian BDRM-2. By modern standards its a poor fit for the South Korean Bradly. Its lightly armed doesn't have a anti tank weapons selection and its poorly armored.
In terms of artillary, North Korea is a good match to the South, they have a distinct advantage in numbers, however South Korea has a edge in terms of modern mobile Artillary systems that are hyper accurate due to modern fire controls and GPS linkage. North Korea has spent a lot of money on non mobile fixed artillary and counter battery technology, but the South Korean's would balance this off with air superiority and find and fire ground radar.
The Battle for the air wouldn't even be close,
while the North Korean airforce looks large on paper with over 500 fighters and 200 dedicated strike aircraft. The fighter force is made up of a mix of Mig 29's for defense of the capital airspace and the badly obsolete Mig 23 and 21's. They depend on the SU-25 for strike packages, this plane while excellent could struggle. The rumor is that out of the 500 fighters about 35 can actually take to the air and fight and only 11 Su-25's are mission capable. Contrary to the movies, North Korea does not have much in the way of dedicated strike helicopters.
North Korea has built one of the most advanced SAM networks in the world combining radar with fixed and non fixed missile and gun batteries.
In terms of army versus army, the average North Korean soldier is smaller then the South Korean solder due to diet and not as well equipt, there is also a lack of on field intelligent assets. They do have an edge in numbers though. The average North Korean Soldier is not trained to made decisions or take initiative. their training is based around brutal discipline and heavy political indoctrination from cradle to grave. They will not surrender because they're hungry. They are also highly mobile very much like the NVA army.
The South Korean soldier endures the same kind of brutal discipline, but they are lavishly trained and equip. Because the South Korean army follows the American model they are very air mobile and trained to appear anywhere on the map in a short period of time. They also have the advantage of technology and fight better at night and can use non personal intelligence to pin down the enemy.
Where the North has the big advantage is their special forces formation. There are a lot of them, they are lavishly trained and equipt, they are the pampered of the NK military and well fed and trained. They are also fierce and extremely loyal. Their job is to infiltrate and target civilian infrastructure. Create terror, destroy the political structure of their enemy and paralyze the enemy by forcing them to chase ghosts. They can infiltrate via land, sea or air through low observable gliders, there are also hundreds of tunnels that go under the DMZ and deep into South Korea.
I would talk about the navy vs navy but its likely in any war scenario that the American's biggest contribution would be carrier task forces and SSN's. North Korea would not survive that encounter.
Yesterday Kim the Younger took the time to go out and inspect the military commands and stopped on the North Korean side of the DMZ to glare menacingly at the South.
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My one add on is the great unknown. china would not be happy with a re-unified strong Korea on their border as a major U.S. ally. It would put incredible pressure on the Chinese Navy and their ability to project power in the region with the U.S. Navy suddenly having a lot more basing options.
I would guess that if stuff were to fly that China would suddenly have an outpouring of "Volunteers" who just happen to own their own equipment
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My one add on is the great unknown. china would not be happy with a re-unified strong Korea on their border as a major U.S. ally. It would put incredible pressure on the Chinese Navy and their ability to project power in the region with the U.S. Navy suddenly having a lot more basing options.
I would guess that if stuff were to fly that China would suddenly have an outpouring of "Volunteers" who just happen to own their own equipment
I'm not sure that this is the whole issue though. What the Chinese don't want is North Korea to basically collapse and millions of starving, needy people to flood into China from North Korea. This would create all kinds of chaos for China that they don't really want to deal with either. That border is already well patrolled and guarded because they don't want those people there either!
I'm not sure that this is the whole issue though. What the Chinese don't want is North Korea to basically collapse and millions of starving, needy people to flood into China from North Korea. This would create all kinds of chaos for China that they don't really want to deal with either. That border is already well patrolled and guarded because they don't want those people there either!
Its two fold, I agree, however I tend to think that if the bubble dropped that South Korea would want nothing more then a regime change in the North.
The problem is that South Korea would not necessarily want to feed those people and they would have a flood into China of the ideologically seduced North Koreas.
One of the big scandals right now is that China is doing more to discourage refugees from staying in China and actively sending them back to the loving arms of the Gulag system in the North.
I'm pretty sure that China would effectively close their borders to the North if the regime collapsed.
Having a reunited Korea with American backing on their borders would be unacceptable to China.
in terms of Naval presence a South run North would give American's visitation and basing rights on the North end of the Sea of Japan which could put a lot of American naval pressure on the Chinese naval operating in the Tauwan straits. and other resource areas.
Chna's single aircraft carrier and sub fleets would no longer be the undisputed masters of that world.
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Its two fold, I agree, however I tend to think that if the bubble dropped that South Korea would want nothing more then a regime change in the North.
The problem is that South Korea would not necessarily want to feed those people and they would have a flood into China of the ideologically seduced North Koreas.
One of the big scandals right now is that China is doing more to discourage refugees from staying in China and actively sending them back to the loving arms of the Gulag system in the North.
I'm pretty sure that China would effectively close their borders to the North if the regime collapsed.
Having a reunited Korea with American backing on their borders would be unacceptable to China.
in terms of Naval presence a South run North would give American's visitation and basing rights on the North end of the Sea of Japan which could put a lot of American naval pressure on the Chinese naval operating in the Tauwan straits. and other resource areas.
Chna's single aircraft carrier and sub fleets would no longer be the undisputed masters of that world.
You seem to be well educated on this subject..What do you think the odds are that these two countries go to war?
Cap, not to mention this would seriously rattle the Russians as well, widening the American sphere of influence in the Sea of Japan. It would also affect military traffic through the Yellow and East China seas, possibly having implications for the Ryukyu islands dispute and the Taiwan independence question. Seems like a chain of issues would be affected by this.
I feel that a South-run North with American forces occupying the whole Korean peninsula would seriously jeopardize stability in the region.
You seem to be well educated on this subject..What do you think the odds are that these two countries go to war?
If I was to guess its unlikely, as much as the North is slightly insane though. The goverrnment in the South is getting tired of living under the threat of the North and of its nuclear bomb project and 110,000 pieces of artillery zero'd in on their capital.
I still think its unlikely that anything happens unless the world sticks to the sanctions and doesn't give emergency aid. if that happens then one of two things could happen, maybe one of three
1) North Korea does nothing, they live under the sanctions since life can't really get any worse for a nation that's losing a lot of their population due to health and nutrition issues, North Korea is already having a serious depopulation problem due to death more then defection.
2) North Korea tries to up the pressure by selective activities. In Kim Jong-Il's playbook that junior seems to be following is an increase in special forces penetration into the south and possible terrorist activity. Murder some South Korean soldiers, attack a facility, shoot up the Blue House.
3) A conventional limited attack to show they are serious, something limited like shelling a low population area, or a torpedo or missile attack on a South Korean military asset.
The game changer is that America has been losing influence with the South Korean government, which means that the Yanks might not be able to hold back a response by the South to aggression by the North like they used to. In fact the American forces that are left in South Korea, about 28,000 soldiers aren't there to be anything but a gloried trip wire to get America into the war if it happens.
They aren't a significant prescience there and South Korea is pretty self sufficient.
South Korea's response to any violent act this time might be pretty large (air strikes, an invasion to increase the buffer zone between the North and South and to remove as much NK artillery as possible, to regime change)
I think its more likely that we see a destabilization of the North South border and see conflict limited to the DMZ.
3 chances out of 10 that we see some kind of activity out of the South
Maybe 1 or 2 out of 10 of an open war.
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