I know what you mean. I'm stuck between my rational/intellectual side which says there is absolutely no way that America could be that stupid, and there's the experience side of me saying that yes, yes they can be.
Still though I have faith in them to do the right thing and not vote the weather vane in.
I think Ohio decides it. When I contemplate Romney winning, I think good, suffer you dumb Yanks, you get what you deserve but the thing is his policies will drift across the border and around the world. I think I'm getting a little to involved in this race.
I think Obama wins by a larger margin than expected. 4 or 5 points nationally. I'll say Obama wins every swing state to boot. That doesn't include Montana, Arizona or Missouri.
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As you can see, I'm completely ridiculous.
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I think Ohio decides it. When I contemplate Romney winning, I think good, suffer you dumb Yanks, you get what you deserve but the thing is his policies will drift across the border and around the world. I think I'm getting a little to involved in this race.
I think, in the end, the consequences of a Presidential election are never as bad or as good as anyone who was emotionally invested in the outcome predicted.
__________________ I am in love with Montana. For other states I have admiration, respect, recognition, even some affection, but with Montana it is love." - John Steinbeck
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I think, in the end, the consequences of a Presidential election are never as bad or as good as anyone who was emotionally invested in the outcome predicted.
In some cases yes, the President doesn't hold enough power to change a lot but looking back at the needless war in Iraq, I have doubts about how much control the Democrats can hold over the President and the House. Romney's agenda will gut labour unions and the middle class. It isn't just what laws he can enact or repeal, we'll see
"the US Dept. of Labor gutted again; not returning phone calls, supporting rock bottom wage rates, and letting prevailing wage cheaters run amuck. The DOL has only just begun to get back to it's core mission of helping labor."
this is quoted from my union magazine and I have no reason to dispute it.
In previous elections there may have not been that much difference but this time if people don't see the right waging an all out war on the middle class, they need new glasses.
If Romney wins: economy will slightly improve, war with iran will follow.
If Obama wins: Neo-cons will be hitting the streets revolting, demanding to see documentation. Claiming the election was rigged.
Obama 305
dems gain 5 seats in congress
dems hold senate
Romney wins popular vote
spoiler alert: in the near future the big rally cry from the Republicans will be the need to get away from the electoral collage and how it is a threat to democracy. This sudden threat to democracy will be created as the republicans will lose Texas in about 2 more Presidental elections.
I went 358-180 for Obama. I think that he wins Florida and gave him Arizona as well (which is a long-shot for sure, but I thought it would be fun to watch. Realistically if you swap out Arizona I think that he gets 347. That sees Obama win all of the toss-up states.
I think that Nate Silver is just way over-rated though. If he does anything like what 308.com does here in Canada (both aggregate polls and suggest that this methodology is somehow more accurate) then we need look no further than the last federal election where 308 was way off.
I think that the polls in the US are under representing some significant categories of voters as well: women, youth, minorities and voters who are actually just quite happy with the way things are going in the country. Couple that with a decent economy, the bounce from hurricane Sandy and the fact that Romney just isn't very liked despite campaigning for the past four years and you have a pretty safe call.
One other point about the polls is that everyone points to the national polls as somehow pointing to a close election. CPers who have followed recognize that they're meaningless though! Romney could sweep entire states like Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and get every single vote from every single voter. He still gets the 8,9 and 16 electoral votes respectively and thats it; so while the polls would show some amazing percentage its a giant moot point.
Anyway, there is my long-winded explanation of why I am going with a stronger than "expected" Obama win.
I went 358-180 for Obama. I think that he wins Florida and gave him Arizona as well (which is a long-shot for sure, but I thought it would be fun to watch. Realistically if you swap out Arizona I think that he gets 347. That sees Obama win all of the toss-up states.
I think that Nate Silver is just way over-rated though. If he does anything like what 308.com does here in Canada (both aggregate polls and suggest that this methodology is somehow more accurate) then we need look no further than the last federal election where 308 was way off.
I think that the polls in the US are under representing some significant categories of voters as well: women, youth, minorities and voters who are actually just quite happy with the way things are going in the country. Couple that with a decent economy, the bounce from hurricane Sandy and the fact that Romney just isn't very liked despite campaigning for the past four years and you have a pretty safe call.
One other point about the polls is that everyone points to the national polls as somehow pointing to a close election. CPers who have followed recognize that they're meaningless though! Romney could sweep entire states like Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and get every single vote from every single voter. He still gets the 8,9 and 16 electoral votes respectively and thats it; so while the polls would show some amazing percentage its a giant moot point.
Anyway, there is my long-winded explanation of why I am going with a stronger than "expected" Obama win.
I'm kinda the opposite, I think that Romney's results will surprise, I'm not calling for a Romney win at all, but I think that his message has resonated to an extent, I also think that Obama's campaign has been a lot more flaccid then the last one and he doesn't have the same Obama or death voter base happening.
Either way America loses.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
I went 358-180 for Obama. I think that he wins Florida and gave him Arizona as well (which is a long-shot for sure, but I thought it would be fun to watch. Realistically if you swap out Arizona I think that he gets 347. That sees Obama win all of the toss-up states.
I think that Nate Silver is just way over-rated though. If he does anything like what 308.com does here in Canada (both aggregate polls and suggest that this methodology is somehow more accurate) then we need look no further than the last federal election where 308 was way off.
I think that the polls in the US are under representing some significant categories of voters as well: women, youth, minorities and voters who are actually just quite happy with the way things are going in the country. Couple that with a decent economy, the bounce from hurricane Sandy and the fact that Romney just isn't very liked despite campaigning for the past four years and you have a pretty safe call.
One other point about the polls is that everyone points to the national polls as somehow pointing to a close election. CPers who have followed recognize that they're meaningless though! Romney could sweep entire states like Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and get every single vote from every single voter. He still gets the 8,9 and 16 electoral votes respectively and thats it; so while the polls would show some amazing percentage its a giant moot point.
Anyway, there is my long-winded explanation of why I am going with a stronger than "expected" Obama win.
Wow, that is what I can bullish!
I still think it is in the 290's range with CO probably putting him over 300......or not.
