Brad Treliving needs to go

[powderjunkie]

FWIW if we apply the Flames .539 home% and .636 road% to the remaining games of each type they'd land on 96 points...which should definitely be enough in this division this year, but several 96pt teams have missed over the years.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Games in hand only count if you win them.If we are using the home record winning percentage to project future success, then the outcome may not be as rosy as you project. Or do we ignore the mediocre home record and don’t acknowledge that trend as a variable in projections?

You do know we play in the weakest division in the league. Vegas was supposed to run away with this but then I think they realized they kept a 2nd to 3rd tier goalie in Lehner..

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

You do know we play in the weakest division in the league. Vegas was supposed to run away with this but then I think they realized they kept a 2nd to 3rd tier goalie in Lehner..

Weakest division yet only 1 team in the league in the bottom 10 and all other teams are in that middle 10. No powerhouse but only 1 bottom feeder.

Vegas also adds a top line center in a few weeks that could change their trajectory

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

FWIW if we apply the Flames .539 home% and .636 road% to the remaining games of each type they'd land on 96 points...which should definitely be enough in this division this year, but several 96pt teams have missed over the years.

96 is enough. All hail the Snake!

[heep223]

Back to Treliving though. I like him but he hasn’t gotten the job done. Ultimately through multiple draft and develop cycles the team has had poor results. It’s as simple as that for me.

I think this season may be his last, unless they can win a few playoff rounds and re-sign Gaudreau. I’m optimistic on both but realistic that it’s more likely than not that one or both of these won’t happen.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Games in hand only count if you win them.If we are using the home record winning percentage to project future success, then the outcome may not be as rosy as you project. Or do we ignore the mediocre home record and don’t acknowledge that trend as a variable in projections?

I'm quite prepared to put my money where my mouth is and say that the Flames will have a higher winning percentage for the remainder of their home games than they have had at home to date (.538).

Are you prepared to go the other way?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Games in hand only count if you win them.If we are using the home record winning percentage to project future success, then the outcome may not be as rosy as you project. Or do we ignore the mediocre home record and don’t acknowledge that trend as a variable in projections?

They count because unless you lose all of them you are gaining points...its not like its 1 or 2 games

Home record is mediocre...many of them have been one or two offs after major travel. I think there is a good chance the home record improves.

Flames are on pace for 98 points as is...that is home ice in round one

nobody can predict the future but to say the Flames have been bad thus far is laughable. They have been as good as Vegas with a much harder schedule

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

FWIW if we apply the Flames .539 home% and .636 road% to the remaining games of each type they'd land on 96 points...which should definitely be enough in this division this year, but several 96pt teams have missed over the years.

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

You do know we play in the weakest division in the league. Vegas was supposed to run away with this but then I think they realized they kept a 2nd to 3rd tier goalie in Lehner..

We seem to be forgetting that this team has not fared well against their own division the past few seasons. How is that going to play into the mix? Flames have played 7 games in their own division and won only 2 of those games (.154 win percentage). They haven't fared much better against the conference, winning 1 and losing 3 of 4 games played (.250 win percentage). Let's not get the cart a head of the horse. There is still a lot of hockey to play, and some factors the Flames still have to contend with. Start winning against teams in our own division, and we can breathe easier.

But getting back to the actual point of the discussion, the record is one data point in evaluating the GM. This team could win the division and even two rounds in the playoffs, but Treliving could still be shown the door. The prospect pool is still nothing great, the asset pool is still pretty poor, the salary cap is still pretty jacked up, and the contracts staring the team in the face are pretty substantial. These are what will determine the future of the team and how the GM is judged and whether he is retained.

Originally Posted by dino7c

nobody can predict the future but to say the Flames have been bad thus far is laughable. They have been as good as Vegas with a much harder schedule

Who said the Flames are bad? Not me. This thread isn't about whether the Flames will make the playoffs - I believe they will and could win the division - it is about Brad Treliving and his performance. The standings and finish don't mean a hill of beans if Treliving allows Gaudreau to walk, and then could be forced into one-year deals with both Tkachuk and Mangiapane so they become UFAs the following summer. The team is then in a shambles. But hey, the one thing working to his advantage is he holds all the cards with Kylington. The next six months will determine if Treliving is back next fall IMO, and it doesn't matter whether they win the division or two rounds of the playoffs. Everything hinges on him getting contracts in place for some pretty key players, or turning those players into assets that make the team better.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

We seem to be forgetting that this team has not fared well against their own division the past few seasons. How is that going to play into the mix? Flames have played 7 games in their own division and won only 2 of those games (.154 win percentage). They haven't fared much better against the conference, winning 1 and losing 3 of 4 games played (.250 win percentage). Let's not get the cart a head of the horse. There is still a lot of hockey to play, and some factors the Flames still have to contend with. Start winning against teams in our own division, and we can breathe easier.

But getting back to the actual point of the discussion, the record is one data point in evaluating the GM. This team could win the division and even two rounds in the playoffs, but Treliving could still be shown the door. The prospect pool is still nothing great, the asset pool is still pretty poor, the salary cap is still pretty jacked up, and the contracts staring the team in the face are pretty substantial. These are what will determine the future of the team and how the GM is judged and whether he is retained.

lol well there is no debate with you then

team wins the division and is in the final four and you still want him fired? Okay guy


Stanley cup or bust in tough market in a 32 team league...good luck with your GM search

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol well there is no debate with you then

Hmmm, I've yet to see you present anything resembling an argument, so please don't suggest for a second that you are debating anything of consequence. You fail to understand the nuance of judging the performance of someone in a managerial capacity and charged with improving the team. You think that the only measure that matters is the finish to the season, and not the entire portfolio that the manager is responsible for. Managers have plenty of responsibilities and the overall health of the club is more important that a single measure like winning our division or a round or two in the playoffs. The overall health and future of the organization is the most important when determining whether an executive keeps their job.

team wins the division and is in the final four and you still want him fired? Okay guy

Those two measures are irrelevant IMO. The most important thing to consider is the overall health of the organization. Is the team prepared for the future? Has the GM made the right moves to fortify the team and make it better year-to-year? I contend that you have to look at the system holistically and make that determination, not focus on the results of one measure.

What does the cap situation look like? Was it managed well? Is it well balanced? Have we overpaid too many players? Do we have key players under long-term contracts or are we facing flight risks? Can we move players for value? Are we going to lose players for nothing, and how important are those players to the team's success (huge measure here)?

How does the development system look? Do we have enough quality prospects in the pipeline that can replace players as they move on from the NHL team or out of the system? Have holes in the system been properly addressed? Do we have organizational depth at all positions? Are we properly developing talent in the minors to fill gaps on the roster?

How is asset management working out (another big measure)? Are we staying on the positive side of managing our assets? Are we in a position where we are able to make deals without carving big holes in the system? Are our assets even of interest to other teams if we try to make deals?

How is confidence in the team by the people that matter the most? The paying customers - the fans.

Stanley cup or bust in tough market in a 32 team league...good luck with your GM search

Considering the number of people out there, and middling results of the current guy, it would not be a hard job to fill. The goal is to improve and move on from three decades of mediocrity. The questions to ask are, is the team in better shape than when Treliving took it over? If so, where is that improvement?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Hmmm, I've yet to see you present anything resembling an argument, so please don't suggest for a second that you are debating anything of consequence. You fail to understand the nuance of judging the performance of someone in a managerial capacity and charged with improving the team. You think that the only measure that matters is the finish to the season, and not the entire portfolio that the manager is responsible for. Managers have plenty of responsibilities and the overall health of the club is more important that a single measure like winning our division or a round or two in the playoffs. The overall health and future of the organization is the most important when determining whether an executive keeps their job.



Those two measures are irrelevant IMO. The most important thing to consider is the overall health of the organization. Is the team prepared for the future? Has the GM made the right moves to fortify the team and make it better year-to-year? I contend that you have to look at the system holistically and make that determination, not focus on the results of one measure.

What does the cap situation look like? Was it managed well? Is it well balanced? Have we overpaid too many players? Do we have key players under long-term contracts or are we facing flight risks? Can we move players for value? Are we going to lose players for nothing, and how important are those players to the team's success (huge measure here)?

How does the development system look? Do we have enough quality prospects in the pipeline that can replace players as they move on from the NHL team or out of the system? Have holes in the system been properly addressed? Do we have organizational depth at all positions? Are we properly developing talent in the minors to fill gaps on the roster?

How is asset management working out (another big measure)? Are we staying on the positive side of managing our assets? Are we in a position where we are able to make deals without carving big holes in the system? Are our assets even of interest to other teams if we try to make deals?

How is confidence in the team by the people that matter the most? The paying customers - the fans.



Considering the number of people out there, and middling results of the current guy, it would not be a hard job to fill. The goal is to improve and move on from three decades of mediocrity. The questions to ask are, is the team in better shape than when Treliving took it over? If so, where is that improvement?

this is your hypothetical...if the Flames win the division and are in the conference final that is a major improvement from the team that missed the playoffs when he took over

if you think the results of this season are irrelevant when it comes to Brad's future you are out to lunch

no playoffs or round one loss I think he is gone (depending on factors)
playoff series win and he likely stays

Welcome to sports...owners don't mind making a few million a game in the playoffs

[dissentowner]

We just had a big home win against the top team in the NHL so of course here comes Lanny to try and bring everybody down again. Can't have that optimistic outlook building on here.

[nik-]

My memory lasts one game.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dino7c

this is your hypothetical...if the Flames win the division and are in the conference final that is a major improvement from the team that missed the playoffs when he took over

And what about all the other measures?

if you think the results of this season are irrelevant when it comes to Brad's future you are out to lunch

Okay, here's a real scenario for you that could very easily play out.

1) Flames win the division and then win two rounds in the playoffs. Euphoria!

Now here's where the GM is really measured.

2) Johnny Hockey and the Flames do not come to terms on a new contract. Gaudreau walks signs elsewhere and the Flames lose their best player with no return.

3) Matthew Tkachuk elects to accept his qualifying offer and refuses to engage in negotiations, making him a UFA at then end of the 2022-23 season. Flames are now at risk of losing two of their best players for no return. The pressure to make a good deal in a trade for Tkachuk is obvious.

4) Andrew Mangiapane, following the advice of his agent, follows the same strategy of Tkachuk, and accepts his qualifying offer or negotiates only a one year contract, making him a UFA at the end of the 2022-23 season as well.

5) As training camp approaches it becomes increasingly evident that the prospects are not prepared to step in and fill the gaps left by the departures of Gaudreau, Pitlick, Lewis, Ritchie, Richardson, Zadorov, Gudbransson, and Stone. The vicious cycle of no organizational depth continues.

Reality sets in as the euphoria starts to wear off. Do you keep your GM in charge?

Now, this is likely the worst-case scenario, but a definite potential based on comments in the media. This is the reality the team could face, and it is the GM's job to make sure the team is not caught in a scenario like this. So, with this in mind, is the team better than when Treliving took over, recognizing we are a couple of bad moves this spring from being in a very bad position?

[Jason14h]

I don’t think Flames would wait until FA was over and see how BT did and then fire the GM right before the season started

If BT is fired it will be before the offseason starts so a new GM is setting the offseason direction

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Vegas also adds a top line center in a few weeks that could change their trajectory

Who are they taking out of the lineup to make the cap work?

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Ownership stepped in and gave them a hall of fame coach after many poor coaching hires by Treliving. So now the team has a decent chance to win every night, but the margin for error is small given the flaws in the roster.

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Fan960 on air personalities have dropped it casually in conversations multiple times.

Sure, it's not 100% absolutely confirmed beyond any doubt, but it's much more confirmed than the rumour that Stone wouldn't sign with the Flames, and that is quoted all the time as fact.

This makes no sense, think about it. If the owners stepped in and hired Sutter directly, without Treliving's involvement, why is he still the GM? If your boss took an important aspect of your job out of your hands to do it him/herself, do you think you would still have that job nearly a year later? I don't doubt that ownership may have been part of the discussions seeing as there is/was a previous relationship but it would also seem to be a reasonable assumption that Treliving and ownership were on the same page with bringing Sutter back. If the owners have lost trust in Treliving's ability to do the job and they are now taking decisions out of his hands, why is he still the GM? On the other hand, why would Treliving stick around? Both sides would want out.

on another note, Sutter, Treliving, and Friedman have said that the Flames and Sutter discussed his return to the bench after Peters was dismissed. This was in the works for a while and both Treliving and ownership were likely in lock step with one another.

I know it might be hard to give Treliving credit for some but the stories some of you like to tell yourselves make no sense whatsoever.

[Bingo]

This is just getting silly.

I don't need anyone that wants Treliving gone to change their mind, but you're certainly not going to convince anyone that wants him to stay that firing him with a .600 win % in a crazy season like this makes any sense.

And Lanny sure they probably won't win all the games in hand, but to assume they'll lose them all is even more unlikely. Best thing to go on is win % to date which says they'll win 3 of 5.

The home record ... the Flames have the highest ranked five on five expected goal split on home ice in the league, and all their underlying numbers are better at home. So unless you're just assuming that Markstrom will continue to struggle on home ice there isn't a good reason to predict or expect doom on home ice.

Honestly just park this topic until the end of the season. Such a silly bump from Mr. Doom and Gloom

[GioforPM]

^^ The Flames’ home stands have been too disjointed to make any kind of prediction for the future .

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Who are they taking out of the lineup to make the cap work?

We will see how they get it done but it won’t be moving Stone, Pacioretty, Stephenson, Piterangelo, Theodore, Martinez etc.


The worst case they have to give Reilly Smith away for cheap. Dadanov, Janmark are likely movable.

They will figure it out