What are your thoughts on Glen Gulutzan's system?

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

tkflames if your point is that the Flames are doing well only because they're in an easy stretch of games, I think you are completely out to lunch and have wasted a bunch of time if that was actually the main goal of your analysis.

The Flames have looked great against some of the top teams in the NHL so far this year. When GG's system is being executed properly, it seems to work against any quality of competition.

We are the only team to Shutout Columbus and the only team to beat them in regulation in the past 12 games.

We dominated Anaheim 8-3. A team who routinely makes us look like an AHL team.

We beat Minnesota 2 times and they are a hard team to squeeze points from. They have the highest goal differential in the Western Conference.

We are 1-1 against St. Louis and if not for Elliott we would of won both of them.

We are 1-0 against San Jose.

We are 1-2 against Chicago but we deserved to win the last game.

Worth mentioning the other two good teams in LA and Philly where the Flames looked exhausted and played terrible hockey.

And also we lost our first 3 games against lower competition (Edmonton, Vancouver).

The problem wasn't necessarily the quality of competition, it was the amount of back-to-back games, road games and lack of practices while trying to learn a new system.

I think you may have missed the point of my original post completely. My point was, as fans we react too negatively during the bad times, and too optimistically during the good times. We had an extremely tough start for a number of reasons posted and re-iterated over the entirity of this thread. I am in full agreement with this. However, I would be cautious to assume that this latest success is all because the team has now bought into GG's system. There are definitely improvements, but systems look a lot better against weaker oponents.

Summary: I am in the cautiously optimistic that this team has seen real improvement, but still in the wait and see camp until at least game 45 on the effectiveness of Glen's system.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by tkflames

I think you may have missed the point of my original post completely. My point was, as fans we react too negatively during the bad times, and too optimistically during the good times. We had an extremely tough start for a number of reasons posted and re-iterated over the entirity of this thread. I am in full agreement with this. However, I would be cautious to assume that this latest success is all because the team has now bought into GG's system. There are definitely improvements, but systems look a lot better against weaker oponents.

Summary: I am in the cautiously optimistic that this team has seen real improvement, but still in the wait and see camp until at least game 45 on the effectiveness of Glen's system.

Yup, I pretty much agree with all of this. However, it is nice to be positive about the team for once in a great while, so try not to be too much of a debbie downer until it looks like there's real reason to be.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by tkflames

I think you may have missed the point of my original post completely. My point was, as fans we react too negatively during the bad times, and too optimistically during the good times. We had an extremely tough start for a number of reasons posted and re-iterated over the entirity of this thread. I am in full agreement with this. However, I would be cautious to assume that this latest success is all because the team has now bought into GG's system. There are definitely improvements, but systems look a lot better against weaker oponents.

Summary: I am in the cautiously optimistic that this team has seen real improvement, but still in the wait and see camp until at least game 45 on the effectiveness of Glen's system.

Yes I see that you have a dash of optimism to your posting, but you've missed the entirety of my point.

The system is working against the best this league (NHL) has to offer so far this season. By your odd grouping metric it might not appear that way, but the stats I listed above don't lie so the entire point you are making is kind of irrelevant.

List another season in the past decade where the Flames have seen consistent success against the most structured or skilled teams in the NHL.

[Itse]

I'd say clearly both points have merit. The Flames are actually playing better, but they are also going through a relatively easy stretch in the schedule. Glass half full, but not 100% full

I mean, if you'd extrapolate our latest 10 games to the rest of the season, that'd be a 41-5-5 record Plenty of room to cool down against tougher opposition, and still make the playoffs.

[The Fonz]

32 games played! We all know how much better the team has been the last month, but regardless, here are some numbers:

[Stat]
[1st 16GP]
[2nd 16GP]

Record
5-10-1
11-4-1

Point%
.344
.719

GF/G
2.44
2.81

GA/G
3.69
2.06

Goal Differential
-20
+12

PP
9.43%
25.00%

#PP/GP
3.31
3.00

PK
73.02%
85.45%

#PK/GP
3.94
3.44


It's pretty incredible seeing every category, with the exception of PP opportunities, get better in the 2nd set of 16GP.
Really don't have anything to add to this, was just curious about this myself and so put it in writing. Can't wait to see how the next 16 go for us!

EDIT: I will add, I was too hard on Dave Cameron. The special teams are looking great now.

[calgarygeologist]

Fire this bum

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

We dominated Anaheim 8-3. A team who routinely makes us look like an AHL team.

We beat Minnesota 2 times and they are a hard team to squeeze points from. They have the highest goal differential in the Western Conference.

We are 1-1 against St. Louis and if not for Elliott we would of won both of them.

We are 1-0 against San Jose.

We are 1-2 against Chicago but we deserved to win the last game.

Inspired by your comments above, I wanted to investigate how consistently we out perform our opposition versus how they have played in their first roughly 32 games.

Spoiler!

For our baseline, I assumed a points percentage of 1.1437%. I tried a number of higher and lower numbers, but this one works for a number of reasons:

1. We have achieved a roughly .500 points percentage against our oppositions through the first 33 games. Their combined average points percentage is 1.1437.

2. Going any higher than 1.1437 and Flames underachieve too often.

3. Going any lower than 1.1437 and the Flames overachieve too often.

4. There is a pretty good over-achieving/under-achieving distribution throughout the whole season with this average.

We can argue about this percentage, but minor adjustments to this percentage (1.17 instead of 1.14 only causes 2 games to swing), so it does not make a huge difference.

How to Interpret: (numbers are abitrary to identify discreet events)
2= Flames should have lost and won
1 = Flames won when they should have won
0 = Flames lost when they should have lost
-0.5 = Flames lost in OT when they should have won
-1 = Flames lost when they should have won

FINDINGS:
Assuming the Flames are a 1.14 team (93 point team)

1. The Flames have under-achieved 7 times with no points to show and 2 times with at least one point to show for it.

2. The Flames have over-achieved 7 times.

3. The Flames have played as expected for 17 games.

4. In the last little run of 15 games, the Flames have over achieved 3 times and underachieved 3 times. Therefore, despite what has been otherwise an impressive streak, the schedule has clearly been favourable to support this run.

Finish on a positive:
Since I have been a bit of a Negative Nancy on here lately, something positive to think about. If the Flames are in fact a 1.14 team and they continue to over-achieve as much as they under-achieve against the opposition they will win another 64 points (as the schedule gets easier). This would result in a total of 98 points on the season.

**All of the above assumes that the 30 game mark is fairly reflective of how teams will play for the rest of the season and for every team that gets better, there are teams that get worse.

[Clarkey]

Glenny!

[CaptainCrunch]

We can put any system we want in. It doesn't matter if the players are half a$$ing it.

[daveinspruce]

Horrible

[Monahan For Mayor]

0 Offence. We look horrible in the o zone.

[bubbsy]

This entire team is broken.

If Julien is fired flames better be all over it.

If treliving can't make that no brainer move fire his arse too

[kukkudo]

I think Treliving is going to be in the hot seat here. If Julien is fired he better make that job saving move ASAP.

[Racki]

It gives me great concern that he has presided over the regression of our five most significant players. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie and Sam Bennett have all taken massive steps backwards under Gulutzan.

[Par]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

This entire team is broken.

If Julien is fired flames better be all over it.

If treliving can't make that no brainer move fire his arse too

Originally Posted by kukkudo

I think Treliving is going to be in the hot seat here. If Julien is fired he better make that job saving move ASAP.

If Julien is hired, give him the chance to hire his own assistants and be stuck with the crap we have.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

This entire team is broken.

If Julien is fired flames better be all over it.

If treliving can't make that no brainer move fire his arse too

Hopefully Treliving can learn from the missed Boudreau opportunity.
Most coaches will come here if we're willing to pay them enough.

[Stay Golden]

Treliving and Gulutzan have broken the Flames. They have sucked the enjoyment and pride out of paying to sit in the stands and wonder why did I waste my time and why continue to waste my money that we put aside keeping seats.
Fire them both of them would be best but it won't happen because this organization does have the balls to a knowledge their own management mistakes.
This is what should happen in a season when you allow your most hated provincial rival to take you to the woodshed in your own house. You clean it starting at the top.

[bigrangy]

GG's defensive system was good. The Flames covered their defensive zone really well, rarely losing their man and rarely letting cross seam passes through. Tonight was not representative of the usual defensive game, imo.

However, GG's offensive gameplan is absolute garbage. There's two plays, cycle repeatedly to drop the puck to the d-man for a weak, unscreened point shot, or wait for Johnny magic. I know that overall, the Flames forward group is a ways below average in terms of offensive creativity and finish, but even so the Flames have not been making enough chances this season, and on top of that, they haven't been converting on enough of the few chances that they do make.

Tonight's game will inspire wild emotional takes (I've made a few) but I don't think GG's system is any worse than Hartley's. They both seem about as likely to win you a game. Is either system good enough? No, I don't think so, and barring a revamp of the coaching style (or just going on a huge winning streak) I don't think that this management team survives the off-season.

[ricosuave]

Originally Posted by Par

If Julien is hired, give him the chance to hire his own assistants and be stuck with the crap we have.

Including a god-damned decent goalie coach

[Stay Golden]

Who did we as Flames want to beat more this season than the Alberta rival.
Gulutzan vs the Oilers this season 0-3 an embarrassing 14 - 7 GA. Gulutzan is a clown excuse for a coach. Treliving is a bigger joke for snowing everyone over that Gulutzan is some golden boy. He is pyrite nothing more.