Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by TOfan

The absurdity of this is astounding. Well done. Please keep patting yourself on the back.

Thanks will do. It was pretty obvious at that point but obviously woulda taken some balls. Johnny might have signed then. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one thinking it.

[SuperMatt18]

If it's actually somebody close to Johnny my guess is it would be his older sister

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

If it's actually somebody close to Johnny my guess is it would be his younger sister

Monahan.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Well, any sewer bottle depot counter could see this so why do you assume Treliving didn’t? Should seem obvious with anyone who has two brain cells to rub together that the Flames find themselves in a position that was easily seen by not only Treliving but by the entire hockey ops department and ownership.

I’m sure you’re right that ownership was in the loop but doesn’t mean they did the right thing. I’m really undecided as to if they did the right thing ultimately actually.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Technically you’re right and the logic / brain side should have led him to a different decision leading into at the least the trade deadline. But the heart side said take a shot and he took it which took some guts to a degree. I can respect that and I like a GM that is willing to take some chances, it makes it way more interesting.

Like I said back in January, and I was right, they should have told Gaudreau he had to sign up until a week or so before the deadline and if he wouldn’t they should have traded him then. Make an internal deadline don’t give the player 100% of the leverage / power in the negotiations. I got ridiculed on this site for saying that then, but it is looking like it would have been the better long term play but worse short term play. At least he got us to round 2 so it wasn’t all for nothing.

Good luck telling the owners you're trading your best player before the playoffs.

Flames had 7 home playoff games - each home playoff game is probably worth about $3 Million in ticket revenue.

You think the owners would have been happy trading in $21M in playoff revenue for a couple of 1st round picks?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Good luck telling the owners you're trading your best player before the playoffs.

Flames had 7 home playoff games - each home playoff game is probably worth about $3 Million in ticket revenue.

You think the owners would have been happy trading in $21M in playoff revenue for a couple of 1st round picks?

It would depend on the deal and if you believed he would sign or not.

In hindsight, would it have been the right thing to do? We will find out in a week.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Half the people, or probably more, have been clamouring for a rebuild for years anyway. You think they would be happy, but no. Just another thing to complain endlessly about.

I’m honestly good with either way, re-signing him or going full rebuild. Whatever, both are interesting to me.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Monahan.

And Johnny is actually Boring Sean Monahan?

[Ferarri]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

If it's actually somebody close to Johnny my guess is it would be his younger sister

Sorry, what’s this about?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Thanks will do. It was pretty obvious at that point but obviously woulda taken some balls.

Threaten to trade the top offensive player on a Division leader a week before the the TD. That certainly takes ... something, but I don't think "balls" is the word you are looking for.

Johnny might have signed then.

Why? Why would Gaudreau sign a contract months ahead of his first qualification for UFA? I think it is pretty naive of you to imagine that this was ever an actual option.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one thinking it.

Oh, definitely. This forum is littered with similar such opinions from people who think they know better than the GM, who they imagine to be a bumbling incompetent fool. Not that these ideas are remotely reflective of reality, where team managers and agents deal with real people, real owners, and real market forces.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by TOfan

The absurdity of this is astounding. Well done. Please keep patting yourself on the back.

If they would have been a bubble team they 100% would have done that. Being top of the division and going all in seemed to surprise everyone.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ferarri

Sorry, what’s this about?

The assumption is that the poster Gaudreauvertime is actually somebody that knows Johnny personally.

Been rumored on here for a while.

Edit: I meant to say older sister in my post, not younger sister.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The assumption is that the poster Gaudreauvertime is actually somebody that knows Johnny personally.

Been rumored on here for a while.

Edit: I meant to say older sister in my post, not younger sister.

Well then let's all hope She posts good news soon!

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The number of forwards who ever had a season with more points than what Tkachuk has this year on that list - 2 (Heatley and Malkin)

Total number of seasons with more points than what Tkachuk has last year - 4 (3 for Malkin, 1 for Heatley).

Total number of players who had a season with the same number of points - 1 (Daniel Sedin, he got 104 points in his best season)

Tkachuk has already, at the age of 24, has a better individual statistical season than 86% of the forwards on that list. He has had the same or better than 90% of the forwards on that list. Tkachuk is worth a lot more than a 2nd overall pick.

There is a very simple explanation for that: https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

3.14 goals per game this year - the most since '95-96 when the Penguins set some of those nifty records for most players with __ goals/points that we approached (maybe we beat some?)

2nd highest in those ~25 years was after the lockout at 3.08. The next higher years are recent at 3.02 and 3.01.

The average from '98 to '17 was 2.76 --> 226 goals per season per team (most of the guys on that list primes were in this period).

257.5 goals per team this year.

That 30ish goal differential is probably worth 15-20 pts for most teams' top players.


This is something worth keeping in mind when thinking about how much to pay guys having gaudy career years.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Threaten to trade the top offensive player on a Division leader a week before the the TD. That certainly takes ... something, but I don't think "balls" is the word you are looking for.


Why? Why would Gaudreau sign a contract months ahead of his first qualification for UFA? I think it is pretty naive of you to imagine that this was ever an actual option.


Oh, definitely. This forum is littered with similar such opinions from people who think they know better than the GM, who they imagine to be a bumbling incompetent fool. Not that these ideas are remotely reflective of reality, where team managers and agents deal with real people, real owners, and real market forces.

Except that if he doesn’t re-sign then yes 110% it (obviously…) would have been the correct move purely from an asset management perspective which I believe is Trelivings job. It was a valid option and something to consider doing, it’s basically saying you give up on this season to secure a future rather than what we have now. Which is 1 week away from toiling in mediocrity for the next 5 years before inevitably being forced into rebuild. Like this isn’t complicated stuff.

Johnny would have likely re-signed because he would have wanted a shot at the cup in a division leading team. That’s the carrot, otherwise later man best of luck wherever we send you. It was an option, not a great one, but that’s what Treliving did by not signing him last summer.

Also lastly, yes many people on this forum have shown they would do better (not me) than Treliving very obviously in certain situations and for certain decisions. I’ll give you one hint, the decision to roll with the coaches he did for as long as he did when you had countless people here suggesting to go get a seasoned veteran coach. It was obvious after Peters what kind of coach the team needed so to go with Ward was burning another season. There’s been lots of times where many posters have good ideas. And I’m not saying Treliving is always wrong either. At the time I thought the Toffoli trade was a good one. Not sure now but too early to tell likely. Anyway my point is that yes sometimes people on here have good ideas and to dismiss them because of appeal to authority is myopic, condescending, arrogant and honestly just straight up wrong haha.

[VilleN]

So when do people think we should’ve traded Gaudreau so that Treliving could be smart instead of stupid? How much value would a single season of Gaudreau have been to a potential trade partner? Would the return in a trade have been more valuable than keeping him and getting to have an elite talent for another year?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Well then let's all hope She posts good news soon!

Poster status is ‘in the sin bin’

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by VilleN

So when do people think we should’ve traded Gaudreau so that Treliving could be smart instead of stupid? How much value would a single season of Gaudreau have been to a potential trade partner? Would the return in a trade have been more valuable than keeping him and getting to have an elite talent for another year?

It's a tough call either way. At least if you chose asset management you'd have something to try and help move on from Gaudreau. Sadly this scenario is playing out. And I don't exactly know for sure if the juice was worth the squeeze.

Everything right now with all the Flames stuff is pretty grey. We dont know yet how this story unfolds. But it's gonna be pretty sour tasting if he leaves and the Flames are left standing there's with their pocket folded out and arms reaching out as he walks away.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by VilleN

So when do people think we should’ve traded Gaudreau so that Treliving could be smart instead of stupid? How much value would a single season of Gaudreau have been to a potential trade partner? Would the return in a trade have been more valuable than keeping him and getting to have an elite talent for another year?

Well I didn’t say Treliving is or was stupid I said the better decision could have been (we will find out in a week) to trade him back in January at the latest IF Gaudreau would not have signed by an internally provided deadline for a long term extension. It’s called maintaining negotiating leverage / power instead of giving it away like we did.

As to your other question, I will ask you back. Do you think with the season he was having a team would have picked him up for a playoff run or a chance to make the playoffs?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by VilleN

So when do people think we should’ve traded Gaudreau so that Treliving could be smart instead of stupid? How much value would a single season of Gaudreau have been to a potential trade partner? Would the return in a trade have been more valuable than keeping him and getting to have an elite talent for another year?

If he leaves no. Maybe if we had a serious playoff run it might have been worth it but if he leaves the next few years won't be fun to watch